The restoration of fishing services and the conveyance of risk information in the Southern California Bight

Southern California's marine areas are heavily contaminated with dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated-biphenyls (PCBs), and fish consumption advisories (FCAs) have been issued throughout the region. Between 2002 and 2003, the Montrose Angler Survey, a large-scale survey of subsistence anglers, was developed and implemented on site in Orange and Los Angeles counties. This survey was intended to assist natural resource trustees in the development of restoration programs that will address injuries to natural resources and restore lost economic services for anglers, but the data were never fully analyzed. The trustees have shown a clear preference for ecological restoration programs that may take years to improve fishing services. In contrast, this analysis, which includes a random-parameter fishing site choice model, demonstrates that simple, inexpensive programs such as better signage to warn of FCAs and transportation to clean sites have the potential to yield substantial benefits quickly. This paper also focuses on how different ethnic minority groups are affected by FCAs, and determines how best to communicate risk information and change fishing behavior through outreach programs.     

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.     

城市投资环境的评价模型及应用

本文在对投资单元的量化,评价指标的选择及量化进行探讨的基础上,提出了专家得分和模糊评价二种投资评价模型,并以宁波市为例进行了应用.     

新疆塔西河流域水利开发现状及投资效益分析

本文在对塔西河流域水利建设、水土开发的调查分析基础上，从不同时期流域水利投资项目、投资结构及农业生产发展等方面对流域水利投资效益进行了分析研究，同时还对流域近期的重点投资建设项目的效益作了分析比较和评估。     

西安市投资环境优化对策的定量研究

选取系列指标体系，运用层次分析法，采用单排序和总排序，分析比较影响西安市的投资环境的因素系列，确定其权重重要性程度，据此提出优对策。     

Seismic risk of circum-pacific earthquakes I. Strain energy release

Commonly used earthquake “whole process” frequency - magnitude and strain energy - magnitude laws are merged to obtain an analytic expression for an upper bound magnitude to regional earthquake occurrenceM ₃, which is expressed primarily in terms of the annual maximum magnitudeM ₁ and the magnitude equivalent of the annual average total strain energy releaseM ₂. Values ofM ₃ are also estimated graphically from cumulative strain energy release diagrams. Both methods are illustrated by application to the high seismicity of the circum-Pacific belt, using Duda’s (1965) data and regionalisation. Values ofM ₃ obtained analytically, with their uncertainties, are in agreement with those obtained graphically. Empirical relations are then obtained betweenM ₁,M ₂, andM ₃, which could be of general assistance in regional seismic risk considerations if they are found to be of a universal nature. For instance.M ₃ andM ₂ differ by one magnitude unit in subregions of the circum-Pacific.     

People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis

Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes, implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However, over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss. Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology. This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual and policy importance.     

Environmental impact assessment of risk associated with groundwater overdraft remediation in cone of depression,Jining, China

In this paper, a simple scenario and probabilistic approach is used to assess the potential groundwater risk due to proposed overdraft remedial actions in cone of depression, Jining City, China. Focusing on the concentrations of Chloride ions (Cl⁻) and total hardness (TH), the impact of artificial recharge and reduced pumping on groundwater quality and quantity is analysed by using the three-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow and transport model, Visual MODFLOW, to simulate groundwater flow and transport within the study area based on scenarios, and utilizes SURFER software to map risk levels. Although 5, 10 or 15% reduced pumping with artificial recharge leads to more decrease in Cl⁻ and TH concentrations than the 25%, less volume increase is achieved for the remediation of land subsidence and other environmental problems in the cone of depression. The Cl⁻ concentrations in recovered groundwater are within the desired concentration of 200 mg/l; however, TH in some cases are above the maximum permissible limit of 500 mg/l, with an exceedence probability of about 0.67 for recharge and recharge with reduced pumping at 25%. The presence of fractures and hydrogeological complexity greatly determines impacts of remediation, and the 22% reduced pumping with artificial recharge offers an optimum strategy for overdraft remediation in the Jining cone of depression.     

绿色招商与县域经济可持续发展——以河南省为例

以河南省县域经济发展为例论述了招商引资对于县域经济发展的重要性,并从可持续发展的角度对当前全民招商的现象进行了反思.在此基础上,讨论了绿色招商的内涵和主要原则,指出绿色招商和循环经济是实现县域经济可持续发展的关键所在.根据县城经济发展的特点,以河南省新郑市和义马市循环经济发展为例,从理论和实证的角度,对县域农业和工业循环经济两大体系构建进行了论述,并对县域绿色招商中应注意的问题,如市场有效性、招商载体构建、实体虚拟产业循环结合等进行了探讨.     

岩体质量分级的风险分析方法

提出了基于RMR岩体质量分级系统的岩体质量研究风险分析方法。该方法分析步骤如下 :(1)通过岩芯样品的现场观测和实验室试验获得分类所需的变量 ;(2 )统计分析拟合得出各变量的分布函数及参数 ;(3)运用Monte Carlo模拟方法获得 2万个RMR值 ,并将结果绘成岩体质量描述图 ;(4)利用以上结果作出岩体质量风险分析评价。该方法用于润扬长江公路大桥岩体质量评价研究获得良好效果