一次强沙尘暴活动对中国城市空气质量的影响

对2006年4月8—12日发生在中国北方地区的一次强沙尘暴天气过程及其对中国大陆城市空气质量的影响进行了分析研究。结果表明：①造成此次沙尘天气过程的直接原因是伴随着西伯利亚强冷空气南下的冷锋自西北向东南方向的移动。沙尘暴鼎盛时期卫星观测的中国境内大气沙尘气溶胶指数（AI）的分布存在一个高值区和两个次高值区。高值区位于内蒙古西部地区、河西走廊和河套地区;两个次高值区分别位于塔克拉玛干沙漠及华北至东北地区。与此同时,地面观测的最小能见度小于10 km的气象站点分布最密集的地区也主要分布在上述3个区域。AI的分布与最小能见度的分布之间有着很好的一致性。②这次沙尘天气过程的影响范围主要在33°N以北。从西到东沙尘天气影响的程度逐渐减轻,受污染最严重的城市集中在西北地区东部。根据锋面过境时间与发生大气污染事件时间的对比可将受沙尘天气影响的城市大致分为两类：第一类城市大气污染事件发生在冷锋过境期间（Ⅰ类城市）,第二类城市大气污染事件发生在冷锋过境前（Ⅱ类城市）。Ⅰ类城市受沙尘过程影响发生空气污染事件的持续时间相对较短,空气污染事件主要出现在锋面过境前后。Ⅱ类城市受沙尘过程影响发生空气污染事件的持续时间相对较长,空气污染事件的出现时间要明显超前于锋面过境时间。两类城市的共同特征是能见度与空气污染指数（API）之间存在着良好的反位相关系。     

Development of a fish-based multimetric index to assess the ecological quality of marine habitats: the Marine Fish Community Index

In this paper the Marine Fish Community Index (MFCI) for the assessment of ecological status of marine environment is proposed. The MFCI was divided into 4 typologies: Rocky subtidal; shallow, intermediate and deep soft-bottoms. Based on the typical community associated to each typology and the DPSIR analysis performed, a set of metrics were selected and tested through a multiple correlation matrix (Pearson’s coefficient) and the core ones included in the index. The MFCI was applied in all typologies and the scores obtained with each metric were analyzed. In order to test the robustness of the MFCI the final ecological value of each zone was recalculated by removing successively one metric at a time. The MFCI showed a sensitive and robust response in the ecological status assessment. Since it incorporates both functional and structural community information, the MFCI can be useful in the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive as well as in other contexts of conservation and sustainable management of the marine environment.     

经济发达区内大都市用地空间的理性扩展

城市化是当今时代社会经济发展的主旋律与经济发展实现现代化的主要目标之一。在经济发达地区,工业化水平高、城镇密集、交通发达、土地利用空间高度集约化,也是沿海地区城市化的重要特点。然而,每个城市的用地空间在城市化过程中存在着非理性的扩展现象,甚至有些大城市地区用地失控的现象;使之城市边缘地区过度郊区化,无限制的蔓延扩展,开发区泛滥,造成生态环境恶化,非理性化的城市建设成本不断增加,社会与环境治理成本也不断加大。提出在经济发达地区内,大都市用地空间理性扩展的5个原则与5种解决的办法,在中国土地资源十分有限的国情条件下,大都市建设做到用地空间理性扩展以及城市化健康发展将起到重要的指导作用,具有十分重要的实践意义与学术价值。     

Evaluation of Procedures for Prediction of Unconventional Gas in the Presence of Geologic Trends

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches.

International Comparisons of Large-scale Natural Disasters Damage and Loss Assessment: Based on “Statistical System of Large-scale Natural Disasters” and PDNA

In June 2014, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the National Disaster Reduction Committee Office issued the “Statistical System of Large-scale Natural Disasters Damage and Loss” (SSLNDD&L), in which the standard statistical content and index were explored. Examined by several major natural disasters in recent years, such as Ludian earthquake (Ms 6.5) on 3 August 2014, Nepal earthquake (Ms 8.1) on 25 April 2015, SSLNDD&L provided good basis for post disaster recovery and reconstruction planning, but the direct guidance of reconstruction planning was still limited. Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), the mainstream of the international disaster needs assessment system, was taken as the main research object, and the content and characteristics of PDNA system were analyzed in detail. The comparison analysis was made from the objectives, contents and index system, evaluation methodology, evaluation parameters between the SSLNDD&L and PDNA. In the future, expanding and increasing various industries and local evaluation index focusing on recovery and reconstruction needs, optimizing the disaster assessment parameter database used for the multi-user such as the Central-Province-County scale, supporting the preparation of technical standard optimization evaluation process to form a complete assessment technical specification should be put forward as the future development of the SSLNDD&L. It is of great practical significance to optimize and perfect the content and index of the SSLNDD&L to better serve the decision making of the recovery and reconstruction after large-scale disasters, and to achieve international standards on large-scale disaster damage & loss statistics and assessment in China.     

Connections or conflict? A social and economic analysis of the interconnections between the professional fishing industry,recreational fishing and marine tourism in coastal communities in NSW,Australia

Resource conflict is a common feature of coastal management. This conflict is often managed by using spatial planning tools to segregate uses, with access decisions made through a comparison of the economic costs and benefits of the competing sectors. These comparisons rarely include an in-depth analysis of the extent or nature of the conflict. One commonly experienced form of resource conflict in coastal communities involves professional fishing, recreational fishing and broader coastal tourism. In New South Wales, Australia the professional fishing industry is often seen as being in conflict with recreational fishing and tourism, and there are frequent calls to close areas to professional fishing, arguing that this will provide improved economic benefits to local communities. This research examined the relationships between the three sectors using economic valuations, qualitative interviews and a large-scale representative questionnaire of the general public. The results revealed highly interconnected and mutually supportive relationships, with professional fishing providing a range of services that benefit both tourism and recreational fishing. These results suggest that spatial management exercises that seek to segregate or remove one sector from an area, may be counterproductive to the interests of all these groups. Relying on economic valuations of each sector as if they stand alone is insufficient to adequately understand their roles in local communities. Resource allocation decisions should be based on evaluations that consider the interconnections between sectors, and consider whether negotiated sharing of resources may provide greater community benefits than excluding certain groups of users.     

Are Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries (TURFs) sufficiently large?

Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries (TURFs) are gaining renewed attention as a potential tool for sustainable fisheries management in small-scale fisheries. This growing popularity comes despite the fact that there are still unresolved questions about the most effective TURF designs. One of the key questions is the role of TURF size in their efficacy both from ecological and social standpoints. This study explores the expected effects of existing TURF sizes on yields for TURF systems in Chile, México and Japan. The expected effect of larval dispersal and adult movement on yields was simulated for TURFs in each system. The results show that the analyzed TURF systems fall into three main categories: (a) TURFs that are of adequate size to eliminate the expected negative effects of both adult and larval movement, (b) TURFs that are large enough to eliminate the expected negative effects of adult movement, but not the effects of larval dispersal, and c) TURFs that are too small to eliminate the expected impacts on yield of both adult and larval movement. These analyses suggest that either existing models of TURF performance are incomplete or that there is significant scope for improved performance with altered TURF designs. Considering these alternatives, empirical evidence from the TURFs deemed too small suggests that complementary management tools can enhance TURF performance when natural or social constraints prevent the construction of TURFs of optimal size.     

Spatio-temporal Patterns of Vegetation Change in Kazakhstan from 1982 to 2015

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), as a key indicator of vegetation growth, effectively provides information regarding vegetation growth status. Based on the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) NDVI time series data for Kazakhstan from 1982 to 2015, we analyzed the spatial pattern and changes in the vegetation growth trend. Results indicated that the three main types of vegetation in Kazakhstan are cropland, grassland and shrubland, and these are distributed from north to south. While the regional distribution pattern is obvious, the vegetation index decreased from north to south. The average NDVI values of the three main vegetation types are in the order of cropland > grassland > shrubland. During the period from 1982 to 2015, the NDVI initially increased (1982-1992), then decreased (1993-2007), and then increased again (2008-2015). The areas where NDVI decreased significantly accounted for 24.0% of the total land area. These areas with vegetation degradation are mainly distributed in the northwest junction between cropland and grassland, and in the cropland along the southern border. The proportions of total grassland, cropland and shrubland areas that were degraded are 23.5%, 48.4% and 13.7%, respectively. Areas with improved vegetation, accounting for 11.8% of the total land area, were mainly distributed in the mid-east cropland area, and the junction between cropland and grassland in the mid-east region.     

Limits to “counter-neoliberal” reform: Mining expansion and the marginalisation of post-extractivist forces in Evo Morales’s Bolivia

The expansion of resource extractivism in Latin America in the last decade has been related to previous neoliberalisation processes, which opened-up mineral exploitation to transnational firms and granted investors favourable conditions. Extractivism, however, expanded equally (or more) in countries which have undertaken “counter-neoliberal” reform—as it is most clearly the case for Evo Morales’s Bolivia. Building on regulationist approaches and strategic-relational state theory, this paper analyses recent changes in the governance of Bolivian mining. It contributes to understanding how and why the Morales governments’ objectives to initiate a transition towards a more plural and diversified economy—informed by social movements—have not been achieved to date. We make three interrelated claims. First, the expansion of mining has been enabled by the maintaining of institutional arrangements for mineral exploitation established during neoliberalism, favouring transnational firms and self-employed (“cooperative”) miners over state-owned and community-managed operations. Second, despite the new government’s improved legal framework for the promotion of environmental and indigenous rights, the mining sector has continued to benefit from de facto lax environmental regulation, which constitutes an indirect incentive to expansion at the expense of ecologies and indigenous–peasant livelihoods. Third, the state has played a central role in weakening social resistance to mining expansion, by demobilising those social forces—particularly peasant–indigenous organisations—whose proposals and demands conflicted most clearly with extractivist development. We suggest, therefore, that analysing changing state–society relations is central to understanding the counter-neoliberalisation of resource governance and its limits.     

Future copper resources

Concerns about future supplies of raw materials demand careful examination of underlying assumptions and data. Flawed deposit information, ignored undiscovered resources and questionable assumptions about future consumption require a new look at copper resources.A careful compilation of 1978 copper-bearing mineral deposits totals 2700 million metric tons of copper including past production—considerably more than reported in previous studies. About 69% of the copper is in porphyry copper deposits and 12% in sediment-hosted copper, Magmatic sulfide (mostly intrusive Ni) deposits account for 5.1%, and IOGC adds about 4.7%. VMS deposits represent 45% of the 1978 deposits but only 4.9% of the copper.The largest 20% of the deposits account for over 92% of the total copper metal. In other words, total Cu content in the smaller 1600 deposits is only about 8% of all Cu known in all deposits. This is a consequence of highly skewed frequency distributions of deposit tonnages and contained metals in all kinds of mineral deposits. This relationship is critical if one is concerned about long-term supply of copper. Typically, distributions of contained metal can be modeled well by the lognormal distribution for individual types of deposits.Information used here and in many other studies on copper includes past production. Total past production through 2015 is about 667 million tons Cu. After subtracting past production from the total copper in known deposits, the remaining unproduced copper from known deposits is 2030 million tons. Known deposits inform us about undiscovered copper resources.Over 80% of known copper is in porphyry copper and sediment-hosted copper deposits. A reliable and robust USGS managed global assessment of 225 tracts for porphyry Cu and sediment-hosted Cu produced an expected value estimate of 3500 million tons Cu in undiscovered deposits. Deposit types not assessed such as IOGC are likely to have significant amounts of undiscovered copper. If the proportion of total Cu accounted for by the two major deposit types assessed is the same proportion in all undiscovered deposits, total Cu expected in these other deposit types would add an additional 850 million tons. The reasonable estimate of copper in undiscovered mineral deposits of 4350 million tons when added to the unmined 2030 million tons in known deposits provides an estimate of 6380 million of tons Cu, which far exceeds estimates published by other researchers.Growth in copper production appears to be exponential over time but appears to be linear with respect to population. Demand for copper is not driven by time, but rather by population and per capita income. Rates of population increases are slowing and incomes in many countries are increasing. Per capita consumption of copper will increase over the coming years as populous nations such as China and India develop increasing per capita incomes, but the demand will likely level off as their economies improve. The large estimated copper resources along with evidence of slowing demand for copper over the long term considerably extend the time of “peak copper” and the long mine life of large deposits means the decline in production after will not be rapid. The focus of copper supply concerns should be on important problems such as improving recovery rates, careful consideration of the benefits and costs of mining very large deposits, technologies to increase exploration success in covered areas and reducing costs of underground mining.