生态环境脆弱度的综合评价

主成分分析法能够在保证原始数据信息损失最小的情况下,以少数的综合变量取代原有的多维变量,使数据结构大为简化,并且客观地确定权数,避免了主观随意性,因而是生态环境脆弱度综合评价的一种简单易行的有效方法.通过主成分分析,可以为生态环境的分区和分级治理提供重要的理论依据.     

南海琼东南盆地天然气水合物稳定域分布特征及资源预测

琼东南盆地油气地质显示盆地内具有生物成因和热成因天然气的巨大生成能力和远景. 地震剖面显示盆地内发育有泥底辟和气烟囱、沟通泥底辟和气烟囱与海底的断裂及可能正在活动的天然气冷泉,这些特征非常有利于天然气水合物的发育. 通过天然气水合物热力学稳定域预测,确定了琼东南盆地天然气水合物的平面和剖面分布特征. 生物成因甲烷水合物分布于水深大于约600m的海底,稳定带最大厚度约314m;热成因天然气水合物分布于水深大于约450m的海区,稳定带最大厚度约410m. 盆地内天然气水合物远景总量约10×109m3,水合物天然气远景为1.6×1012m3.     

一次强沙尘暴活动对中国城市空气质量的影响

对2006年4月8—12日发生在中国北方地区的一次强沙尘暴天气过程及其对中国大陆城市空气质量的影响进行了分析研究。结果表明：①造成此次沙尘天气过程的直接原因是伴随着西伯利亚强冷空气南下的冷锋自西北向东南方向的移动。沙尘暴鼎盛时期卫星观测的中国境内大气沙尘气溶胶指数（AI）的分布存在一个高值区和两个次高值区。高值区位于内蒙古西部地区、河西走廊和河套地区;两个次高值区分别位于塔克拉玛干沙漠及华北至东北地区。与此同时,地面观测的最小能见度小于10 km的气象站点分布最密集的地区也主要分布在上述3个区域。AI的分布与最小能见度的分布之间有着很好的一致性。②这次沙尘天气过程的影响范围主要在33°N以北。从西到东沙尘天气影响的程度逐渐减轻,受污染最严重的城市集中在西北地区东部。根据锋面过境时间与发生大气污染事件时间的对比可将受沙尘天气影响的城市大致分为两类：第一类城市大气污染事件发生在冷锋过境期间（Ⅰ类城市）,第二类城市大气污染事件发生在冷锋过境前（Ⅱ类城市）。Ⅰ类城市受沙尘过程影响发生空气污染事件的持续时间相对较短,空气污染事件主要出现在锋面过境前后。Ⅱ类城市受沙尘过程影响发生空气污染事件的持续时间相对较长,空气污染事件的出现时间要明显超前于锋面过境时间。两类城市的共同特征是能见度与空气污染指数（API）之间存在着良好的反位相关系。     

Evaluation of Procedures for Prediction of Unconventional Gas in the Presence of Geologic Trends

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches.

经济发达区内大都市用地空间的理性扩展

城市化是当今时代社会经济发展的主旋律与经济发展实现现代化的主要目标之一。在经济发达地区,工业化水平高、城镇密集、交通发达、土地利用空间高度集约化,也是沿海地区城市化的重要特点。然而,每个城市的用地空间在城市化过程中存在着非理性的扩展现象,甚至有些大城市地区用地失控的现象;使之城市边缘地区过度郊区化,无限制的蔓延扩展,开发区泛滥,造成生态环境恶化,非理性化的城市建设成本不断增加,社会与环境治理成本也不断加大。提出在经济发达地区内,大都市用地空间理性扩展的5个原则与5种解决的办法,在中国土地资源十分有限的国情条件下,大都市建设做到用地空间理性扩展以及城市化健康发展将起到重要的指导作用,具有十分重要的实践意义与学术价值。     

Increased Particle Fluxes at the INDEX Site Attributable to Simulated Benthic Disturbance

Particle fluxes were measured 7 m above the sea bottom during the predisturbance, disturbance, and postdisturbance periods by using time series sediment traps attached to seven deep-sea moorings deployed in the INDEX experiment site in the Central Indian Basin. The predisturbance particle fluxes varied between 22.3 to 55.1 mg m -2 day -1 . Increased and variable particle fluxes were recorded by the sediment traps during the disturbance period. The increase observed was 0.5 to 4 times more than the background predisturbance fluxes. The increases in particle fluxes (~4 times) recorded by the sediment trap located in the southwestern direction (DMS-1) were the greatest, which could be the result of preferential movement of resuspended particles generated during the deep-sea benthic disturbance along the general current direction prevailing in this area during the experimental period. Also, the traps located closer to the disturbance area recorded greater fluxes than did the traps far away, across the Deep Sea Sediment Resuspension System path. This variability in recorded particle fluxes by the traps around the disturbance area clearly indicates that physical characteristics such as grain size and density of the resuspended particles produced during the disturbance had an important effect on particle movement. The postdisturbance measurements during ~5 days showed a reduction in particle fluxes of ~50%, indicating rapid particle settlement.     

Development of a fish-based multimetric index to assess the ecological quality of marine habitats: the Marine Fish Community Index

In this paper the Marine Fish Community Index (MFCI) for the assessment of ecological status of marine environment is proposed. The MFCI was divided into 4 typologies: Rocky subtidal; shallow, intermediate and deep soft-bottoms. Based on the typical community associated to each typology and the DPSIR analysis performed, a set of metrics were selected and tested through a multiple correlation matrix (Pearson’s coefficient) and the core ones included in the index. The MFCI was applied in all typologies and the scores obtained with each metric were analyzed. In order to test the robustness of the MFCI the final ecological value of each zone was recalculated by removing successively one metric at a time. The MFCI showed a sensitive and robust response in the ecological status assessment. Since it incorporates both functional and structural community information, the MFCI can be useful in the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive as well as in other contexts of conservation and sustainable management of the marine environment.     

南半球中高纬大气环流年代际变率的研究

利用近百年全球海平面气压图和再分析海平面气压等资料,建立了自1871年以来1,4,7和10月份的南极涛动指数（AOI）序列。近百年来1月AOI有明显增强的趋势,7月AOI则有明显减弱的趋势。最近40多年来,1,4和10月AOI都有较强的上升趋势。4个月份的AOI都有20～30a左右的准周期波动,表现出显著的年代际尺度的变化。用1,4,7和10月的平均可以近似反映年平均南极涛动指数的变化。在年代际尺度上,年平均指数在1894～1901年、1910～1935年左右是强的负指数时期。1880～1893年、1936～1945年左右是较强的正指数时期,1980年代以来,强的正指数已经持续了近20a,且1990年代以来还有加强的趋势。模拟结果的功率谱显示气候系统内部产生的低频变化主要体现在年际尺度变率上,年代际尺度变率的谱值则远远低于观测结果,但不排除在个别情况下,通过Hasselmann机制产生AOI年代际变率的可能性。     

Measuring the need for primary health care: an index of relative disadvantage

The prime objective of primary health care provision is the maintenance or improvement of the population's health. The equitable distribution of resources is paramount to this and measures of disadvantage are implemented to assess differential levels of need as a basis for calculating deprivation payments according to general practitioner workload. Despite research that highlights the benefits of measures of social disadvantage, indices have not been used to fundamentally shape resource allocation for health authorities. This paper uses the results from a patient survey into utilization behaviour to define and model the determinants of the need for health care based on components of relative need and accessibility. Proxy indicators are derived from routine sources of data to create an Index of Relative Disadvantage (IRD). A sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the index and shows that—although the index employs a wider range of variables than most previous deprivation indices—there is no gross data redundancy. Simplified versions of the index are also explored and evaluated. The IRD developed here is closely correlated with other indices of disadvantage, but its greater breadth and more logical construction mean that it may be more likely to be a more widely applicable instrument for health care planning of resource allocation.     

土地利用格局空间关联分析--以浙江省桐庐县为例

空间关联是地理空间现象和空间过程的本质特征。土地利用数据存在空间依赖关系,研究土地利用空间关联特征,对于理解区域土地利用格局的形成具有重要意义,也可为加强土地规划管理和促进土地可持续发展提供参考依据。本文以浙江省桐庐县为研究区,以空间统计学理论为支撑,结合GIS技术方法,通过构建距离标准和邻接标准的空间权重矩阵,从全局空间自相关和基于空间不平稳性的局部空间自相关两个角度对桐庐县土地利用格局进行多尺度空间关联分析。结果表明,桐庐县各种土地利用类型均存在不同程度的空间自相关性,且空间自相关性与空间尺度密切相关,同时,桐庐县土地利用表现出空间不平稳性,既有局部的空间集聚,也因存在少量空间异质性而呈现局部离散格局。