Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions

Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.     

Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach

Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.     

长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因

利用区位基尼系数、空间自相关、相对发展率指数（NICH指数）以及空间面板数据模型等分析方法,以长江经济带沿线38个中心城市作为空间观测单元,结合专利授权量等相关数据,研究了创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因。结果表明：2000~2013年长江经济带沿线中心城市的创新产出在整体上逐年增长,地理集中度呈现波动下降趋势;长三角地区相对发展速度较快;创新产出的空间集聚程度表现出反“Z”字形的波动上升态势;创新产出的热点区域由长三角-成渝“双核心”空间结构发展成长三角“单极突出”空间格局,且长三角热点区域范围有所增长,冷点区域则分布在长江中游地带;技术溢出、政府行为、空间区位和金融支持均对长江经济带沿线中心城市的创新产出具有显著地正向影响,经济基础对下游城市具有促进作用。根据研究结论还提出了相应政策建议。     

长江经济带工业废水排放的时空格局演化及驱动因素

利用探索性空间分析方法（ESDA）和迪氏分解模型（LMDI）研究长江经济带2002~2013年工业废水排放的时空格局演化和主要驱动因素。① 时空格局演化方面,时间上工业废水排放先上升后下降,在2005年达到峰值。空间上,排放量自上游向下游增加;高排放城市减少,中排放城市增多;工业废水排放自下游向中上游转移,并由大城市向中小城市扩散;呈现明显的空间集聚状态。② 驱动因素方面,经济发展效应和技术进步效应分别是工业废水排放增多和降低的主导因素;产业结构效应的影响取决于产业发展政策的调整;人口规模效应影响较小。     

东北振兴以来吉林省区域经济差异的时空演变研究

基于吉林省2003~2015年间地区生产总值和人均地区生产总值数据,以市域、县域两个尺度单元为研究对象,采用人口加权变异系数、基尼系数、泰尔指数等统计分析方法,对吉林省东北振兴战略实施以来的13 a内,区域经济差异的时空演变进行定量分析,并运用泰尔指数的分解方法,探讨了吉林省区域经济差异的空间格局。结果发现：① 吉林省区域经济总体差异、市域差异、县域差异均呈逐年下降趋势。② 通过差异贡献率显示：县域差异是区域总体差异变化的主导力量,长春市域的内部差异远高于其他市域,但有逐年减小的趋势,长吉两地的二元结构仍然突出,是全省区域经济差异产生的主要来源,主导着全省区域经济差异走向;③ 从2003~2015年来看,全省经济增长速度较快的地区主要还是集中在“三核一带”;④吉林省经济差异主要是由资源禀赋、产业结构、极化效应和政策导向等多种因素综合作用的结果。     

中原经济区干线公路路网通达性研究

利用GIS空间分析工具,选取最短时间矩阵、最短路径矩阵、路网密度及通达性系数等指标,对中原经济区干线公路路网通达性进行分析。结果表明:中原经济区公路总长度和高速公路长度逐年快速增加,国道和高速公路分别呈现出"四横五纵"和"米"字型布网。郑州、开封、许昌和新乡因优越的干线公路基础条件和中心地理位置,位居公路路网总距离和总时间排名的前列;运城市、蚌埠市和晋城市则因边缘效应而排名相对靠后。郑州和洛阳的交通中心地位明显,特别是郑州的中心地位更加突出,但以二者为中心交通运输最短时间分布状况欠佳,2 h圈内的城市数量较少。研究区总路网密度较高,区域内路网总容量较大,服务能力和辐射能力较强。高密度路网主要分布在中东部,低密度则分布在北部、西部和南部。高通达性城市主要分布在山东省和河南省,低通达性城市主要分布在河北省、山西省、安徽省及河南省部分省辖市,郑州市干线公路通达性最好,蚌埠市最差。自然地理位置、经济发展水平及交通建设资金投入是影响公路路网通达性的主要因素。     

深汕特别合作区协同共治型区域治理模式研究

伴随金融风暴引发了全球资本重组,资本的空间修复客观要求以新的跨界区域治理模式组织资本与劳动力关系,而中国传统跨界产业园区建设路径依赖于区域发展中“省-地方”分层设权治理模式。以珠三角地区的深汕特别合作区为例,通过深度访谈与文本分析法,发现深汕特别合作区形成的多主体共同参与、分工合作的协同共治型区域治理模式是在传统路径依赖基础上的一次制度创新。通过分析模式产生的产业经济背景、政策制度背景与现实发展概况,并解构深汕特别合作区行政组织架构、空间发展政策及利益分配机制,发现省政府的放松管制与资源注入,地方政府的优势互补、分工协同是协同共治型区域治理模式的本质特征,而这一区域治理模式的产生将会对中国区域产业政策与空间政策及政府职能转型提供新的经验与启示。     

传承和发扬人文与经济地理学前辈的精神和知识体系——人文与经济地理学青年论坛综述

2018年1月27-28日,人文与经济地理学青年论坛暨第二届中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室青年论坛在北京国家会议中心成功举办。论坛以“人文与经济地理学的传承与创新：青年学者的责任与行动”为主题,来自全国100余家高校和研究机构从事人文与经济地理学相关研究的青年学者370余人参会。这说明人文与经济地理学青年学者很活跃、有热情、有担当意识。青年学者要加强学习、传承和发扬人文与经济地理学前辈的精神和知识体系,迎接人文与经济地理学繁荣发展的新时代。     

Bringing globalization to the countryside: Special Economic Zones in India

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are important vectors of neoliberal globalization in India. Despite facing widespread resistance against the proposed land acquisition for these zones, they are still being promoted across the country. We argue that the wealth redistribution to the country's elites and the fractured resistance movements enable neoliberalism and its practices to grow in the countryside. Using a private sector SEZ in Gurgaon as a case study, this article explores how special economic zoning, as a neoliberal policy, has been implicated in the spatialized production of poverty. We also show that the main actors who promote neoliberalism in India (the state and the large‐scale urban private sector) have found a seemingly unlikely ally in rural India in the form of farmers with large landholdings, rural elites who are willing to let go of their land under certain conditions. The data for the article was collected in India in 2009–10.     

Population dynamics, socioeconomic change and land colonization in northern Jordan, with special reference to the Badia Research and Development Project area

The paper reports on preliminary observations from northern Jordan aimed at testing the view that people migrate from areas of relatively high potential for cultivation to the marginal semi-arid/arid frontier because of social differentiation, political factors or environmental constraints. Cultivated areas have been mapped from multi-date remotely sensed imagery, a typology of fields in the area has been constructed, and their dynamics between 1972 and 1992 analysed. In addition, semi-structured interviews with farmers attempted to understand the reasoning behind village growth, changing farming systems and cultivation practices. The findings are discussed in the context of the area's demography and national and regional shifts in economic policy.