川西及邻近地区地震活动性模拟和断层间相互作用研究

本研究采用基于库仑破裂准则的地震活动性准静态模型,模拟计算了川西地区长达10000年的理论地震目录,通过对理论地震目录的分析发现川西地区M_s≥7.0强震在时间上表现出很强的随机性,与平均地震发生率为1/22.0年^－1（≈0.0454年^－1）的Poisson过程很相近, Poisson模型可能是川西地区开展长期（数10年）地震危险性计算中较为合适的模型.而单一断层M_s≥7.0强震的时间间隔分布与Poisson过程存在很大的差异,用Poisson模型估计单一构造上长期地震危险性可能是不合适的.通过分析模拟产生的长时间理论地震目录,逐一给出了川西地区主要断层的M_s≥7.0强震的时间间隔分布与平均M_s≥7.0强震的复现时间,并讨论了主要断层间强震活动的相互关联,计算出了强震在各断层间的转移概率.定量计算了研究区一断层的破裂产生的库仑应力在研究区其他断层面上的投影.从而为研究断层间的相互作用,研究一断层发生强震对其他断层发生强震危险性的影响提供了依据.本文为开展区域地震危险性分析研究提出了新的思想和途径.     

我国沿海台风百年遇重大灾害的Poisson分布特征

使用114年西北太平洋台风资料，50年台风灾害和灾害指数诊断资料与美国70年灾害指数的研究进行对比分析，研究我国沿海地区代表站的百年遇重大台风灾害的Poisson分布特征和灾害指数与台风强度的分布关系。采用Poisson分布对中国沿海热带气旋致灾机理和灾害特征进行分析研究，给出中国北起渤海湾，南到广西的广大海岸线上，台风登陆致灾度（灾害分类、致灾频率，N年遇度等）分析，指出Poisson应用价值。台风灾害指数与台风强度的分析为我国和西北太平洋台风登陆灾害及损失的客观评估提供了重要的参考。     

土的动剪切模量、阻尼比和泊松比研究进展

介绍了现场测试与实验室测试土的最大动剪切模量的差别、动剪切模量和阻尼比与剪应变关系的表达式及其地区经验成果、固结比对最大动剪切模量影响、动泊松比研究、实验误差及其对地震动的影响等方面的主要成果。提出应加强动泊松比研究,加强共振柱和动三轴试验土动力学参数统一的数学模型研究,加强土动力学参数在均等固结与非均等固结条件下关系研究,加强土动力学参数与土的常规物理力学性质指标关系研究和土动力学参数实验误差研究。     

中国1995—2000年省间人口迁移模拟与迁移因素对迁移规模贡献的分解

尝试用泊松模拟方法建立人口迁移模型,并且与传统人口迁移模型的结果进行比较,说明泊松人口迁移模型的优点.本研究使用一种新的人口迁移因素分解方法,在人口迁移模型的基础上,估计空间因素、迁入地和迁出地因素的空间结构、迁入地迁出地因素本身对人口迁移规模的贡献.本研究使用的实例数据是中国2000年人口普查得到的1995—2000年省间人口迁移数据.     

AVO纵横波反演

作者在本文介绍了，利用地震资料AVO纵横波分离（加权叠加）技术求出的纵波剖面、横波剖面，再进行模拟退火反演而求出的纵波速度（Vp)、横波速度（Vs)、密度（d)、拉梅常数（λ）、剪切模量（μ）、流体压力（Pf)及泊松比（σ）等参数的一项实用AVO油气预测技术。     

全球4D数据产品研制

本文以我国自主高分辨率遥感立体测图卫星为主要数据源,利用高精度卫星影像无地面控制几何定位技术和智能采编技术,研制了全球陆域范围统一框架下的多尺度、多类型的基础地理信息产品,以发挥测绘地理信息在全球治理和可持续发展方面的重要作用,为"一带一路"倡议,国家经济社会发展,全球战略实施,智慧社会建设提供科技支撑。     

地震发生中长期预测中的非稳态泊松模型

基于实际地震的发生在一个活动期内具有加速活动的特点 ,作者提出一种非稳态泊松模型。与稳态泊松模型中地震发生率 ν为常数相对应 ,该模型中地震发生率 ν是随时间呈指数性增加。采用对数似然方法 ,通过使其最大化来确定模型的参数。作者以一个假想的时间序列 ,讨论了非稳态与稳态泊松模型之间的差别 ,并将该模型实际应用于华北地区汾渭地震带和华北平原地震带的中长期预测中     

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of a sediment transport model

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has, however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem. The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment as spawning gravel-bed.     

Influence of Stochastic Discontinuity Network Parameters on the Formation of Removable Blocks in Rock Slopes

Summary  We study the effects of discontinuity network parameters on the formation of removable wedges in rock slopes. Discontinuities are simulated using the Poisson disk model, and removable wedges are identified using block theory. The formation of removable wedges of different sizes is assumed to follow a Poisson process. Poisson regression and Monte Carlo simulation are then used to identify statistically relevant parameters of the model, and to study the effects that variations in their values have on formation of removable blocks. The sensitivity of the results as a function of the mean orientations of the discontinuity sets forming the blocks is also studied by means of a parametric study. The volumetric intensity of discontinuities in the rock mass is found to have a significant impact on the computed estimates of removable block formation. As predicted by theory, our results indicate that, everything else being equal, the expected rate of formation of removable wedges is proportional to the square of the intensity measure. Estimates are also sensitive to changes in discontinuity size, especially in cases in which discontinuities are smaller than one to two times the height of the slope. The interaction between the mean size of discontinuities and the coefficient of variation of discontinuity sizes is found to be significant as well. Finally, results of our sensitivity analysis suggest that the orientation of discontinuity sets significantly affects the rate of formation of removable blocks in rock slopes. Author’s address: Dr. Rafael Jimenez-Rodriguez, ETS Ing. de Caminos, Canales y Puertos. Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain