An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia

In order to investigate the seismicity of western Anatolia limited with the coordinates of 36°–40° N, 26°–32° E, Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation, seismic risk and recurrence period have been computed. The data belonging to both the historical period before 1900 (I₀ ≥ 5.0 corresponding to M_S ≥ 4.4) and the instrumental period until the end of 2006 (M_S ≥ 4.0) has been used in the analysis. The study area has been divided into 13 sub-regions due to certain seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic models and geology of the region. All the computations have been performed for these sub-regions, separately. According to the results, a and b values in the computed magnitude–frequency relations are in the intervals 3.19±0.17 – 5.15±0.52 and 0.42±0.05 – 0.66±0.07, respectively. The highest b values have been determined for sub-regions 3 and 12 (Demirci-Gediz and Gökova Gulf-Mu?la-Gölhisar). The lowest b values have also been determined for sub-regions 1 and 9 (Bal?kesir and Bodrum-?stanköy). Finally, seismic risk and recurrence period computations from a and b values have shown as expected that sub-regions 1 and 9 which have the lowest b values and the highest risks and the shortest-recurrence periods.     

确定外部扰动重力场的改进直接积分方法

针对Stokes-Pizzetti积分用于外部扰动重力场计算中从空中趋近地面时存在着不连续和积分奇异的问题,对该式进行了改进。改进式引入地面计算点处的重力异常,得到一个从地面到空中统一适用的公式,并且中和了在地面计算点处的奇异性。类似地,改进了的Stokes公式在用于大地水准面计算时积分的奇异性同样起到了改善作用。     

Non‐ergodicity and PEER's framework formula

A framework formula for performance‐based earthquake engineering, advocated and used by researchers at the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, is closely examined. The formula was originally intended for computing the mean annual rate of a performance measure exceeding a specified threshold. However, it has also been used for computing the probability that a performance measure will exceed a specified threshold during a given period of time. It is shown that the use of the formula to compute such probabilities could lead to errors when non‐ergodic variables (aleatory or epistemic) are present. Assuming a Poisson model for the occurrence of earthquakes in time, an exact expression is derived for the probability distribution of the maximum of a performance measure over a given period of time, properly accounting for non‐ergodic uncertainties. This result is used to assess the approximation involved in the PEER formula for computing probabilities. It is found that the PEER approximation of the probability has a negligible error for probabilities less than about 0.01. For larger probabilities, the error depends on the magnitude of non‐ergodic uncertainties and the duration of time considered and can be as much as 20% for probabilities around 0.05 and 30% for probabilities around 0.10. The error is always on the conservative side. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Site-specific prediction of West Nile virus mosquito abundance in Greater Toronto Area using generalized linear mixed models

Mosquito surveillance programs provide a primary means of understanding mosquito vector population dynamics for the risk assessment of human exposure to West Nile virus (WNv). The lack of spatial coverage and missing observations in mosquito surveillance data often challenge our efforts to predict this vector-borne disease and implement control measures. We developed a WNv mosquito abundance prediction model in which local meteorological and environmental data were synthesized with entomological data in a generalized linear mixed modeling framework. The discrete nature of mosquito surveillance data is accommodated by a Poisson distributional assumption, and the site-specific random effects of the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) capture any fluctuation unexplained by a general trend. The proposed Poisson GLMMs efficiently account for the nested structure of mosquito surveillance data and incorporate the temporal correlation between observations obtained at each trap by a first-order autoregressive model. In the case study, Bayesian inference of the proposed models is illustrated using a subset of mosquito surveillance data in the Greater Toronto Area. The relevance of the proposed GLMM tailored to WNv mosquito surveillance data is highlighted by the comparison of model performance in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties.     

Crustal structure in the Tengchong volcanic area and position of the magma chambers

In this paper, we extract 1500 P receiver functions in the Tengchong volcanic area from 211 teleseismic events recorded at nine digital seismic stations. A common conversion point stacking technique is used to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and to get the time delays of the Ps, PpPs, PsPs + PpSs phases within grids of 10 km × 10 km. Finally, the crustal thickness and Poisson’s ratio are calculated. The results show that the crustal thickness ranges from 28 to 40 km and the Poisson’s ratio ranges from 0.28 to 0.36. There exist two mantle-uplifting sites each with a horizontal scale of about 30 km × 30 km, one in Mazhan–Tengchong–Maanshan and the other in Wuhe–Longjiang–Tuantian. The high Poisson’s ratio is consistently located within these two sites. Recorded shocks with Ms > 2.0 reveal that most of the shocks are distributed around the two sites and few are located at the centers. The shocks, the geothermal distribution, and the crustal structure suggest that the magma is still active, and the two mantle-uplifting sites detected may be the positions of two magma chambers in the crust.     

Poisson disk sampling in geodesic metric for DEM simplification

To generate highly compressed digital elevation models (DEMs) with fine details, the method of Poisson disk sampling in geodesic metric is proposed. The main idea is to uniformly pick points from DEM nodes in geodesic metric, resulting in terrain-adaptive samples in Euclidean metric. This method randomly selects point from mesh nodes and then judges whether this point can be accepted in accordance with the related geodesic distances from the sampled points. The whole process is repeated until no more points can be selected. To further adjust the sampling ratios in different areas, weighted geodesic distance, which is in relation to terrain characteristics, are introduced. In addition to adaptability, sample distributions are well visualised. This method is simple and easy to implement. Cases are provided to illustrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method.     

Point process models for fine-resolution rainfall

Abstract

In a recent development in the literature, a new temporal rainfall model, based on the Bartlett-Lewis clustering mechanism and intended for sub-hourly application, was introduced. That model replaced the rectangular rain cells of the original model with finite Poisson processes of instantaneous pulses, allowing greater variability in rainfall intensity over short intervals. In the present paper, the basic instantaneous pulse model is first extended to allow for randomly varying storm types. A systematic comparison of a number of key model variants, fitted to 5-min rainfall data from Germany, then generates further new insights into the models, leading to the development of an additional model extension, which introduces dependence between rainfall intensity and duration in a simple way. The new model retains the original rectangular cells, previously assumed inappropriate for fine-scale data, obviating the need for the computationally more intensive instantaneous pulse model.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

新疆巴楚和塔什库尔干地震台下方地壳结构研究

利用位于新疆塔里木盆地的巴楚地震台（BCH）和西昆仑山区的塔什库尔干地震台（TAG）多年记录的高质量远震波形数据,应用接收函数H-k叠加方法研究了台站下方的地壳结构。研究结果显示,BCH和TAG地震台下方地壳厚度差异分明,区域地壳厚度与地形有很好的对应关系;两个台都具有高的地壳平均波速比Vp／Vs值。BCH台下方的地壳厚度为44km、地壳内的平均波速比为1．849,在该台地壳中部21km处存在清晰的间断面,该间断面内存在低的平均P波波速和作／K值,该间断面的深度与邻近巴楚台的伽师震源区的精确定位的震源深度下界面一致,可能为地壳内的脆．韧转换带。TAG台下方的地壳厚度为69km,地壳内的平均波速比为1．847,较厚的地壳和高波速比可能表明该台下地壳的物质易于发生塑性流动,为地壳的变形和增厚创造了条件。     

利用H-Kappa方法反演宁夏地区的地壳厚度

利用宁夏区域数字地震台网记录到的远震提取接收函数,用H-Kappa叠加方法反演得到宁夏区域数字地震台网子台下方的地壳厚度和波速比。结果显示,宁夏地区地壳平均厚度约为46km,并且由西南向东北逐渐减薄,南北两端地壳厚度差异达15km,东西两端地壳厚度差异达8km。泊松比计算结果显示,宁夏北部和中南部的泊松比值较高,中北部泊松比值较低。     

利用远震接收函数研究江西省地震台站下方莫霍面深度及泊松比分布

利用三分量远震记录资料,计算获得了江西省13个数字地震台下方的体波接收函数,利用H-kappa叠加方法反演得到这些台站下方的地壳厚度及泊松比。结果表明,研究区域东西向莫霍面起伏平缓,南北向地壳厚度变化稍大,全区域内地壳平均厚度为31 km,最大深度为九江的35 km,最小深度为赣州的28 km。泊松比的分布在研究区内从0.2到0.3之间变化,最大为会昌的0.27,最小为南昌的0.21。赣南各台站泊松比分布明显高于赣北,这可能与该区域地幔组分及地质演化过程有关。