用一种插值方法作短期气候预测的试验

将ｓｈｅｐａｒｄ插值方法运用到短期气候预测中,建立一类非模式预报方法,按照相似原因将产生相似结果的原理来作预报,对云南降水进行了预报试验。结果表明,这种方法与多元回归相比具有良好的预报能力,值得进一步探讨和应用。     

土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟中的参数敏感性分析和优化

使用一种复杂洗牌算法 (SCE-UA, Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm) 对Noah陆面模式中的参数进行敏感性分析和优化,其中水文参数采取直接优化和优化土壤成份的形式,侧重于研究两种水文参数给出方法对土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟的敏感性。结果表明:将土壤湿度和土壤温度作为判据,模式中水文参数敏感性最高,水文参数对土壤湿度的敏感性要高于对土壤温度的敏感性。表层土壤湿度作为判据对土壤水文参数优化后,可以改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟,加入深层土壤湿度同时作为判据后,优化使土壤温度的模拟变差。当土壤成份作为优化的参数,表层和深层土壤湿度作为判据,优化能够同时改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟。单独使用土壤温度作为判据不能达到优化水文参数的目的。将土壤成份作为优化的参数后,土壤湿度和土壤温度的多判据优化效果最好,且减少不敏感参数的个数后对优化结果的影响总体不大。基于以上结果,将土壤成份作为优化水文参数的方法能够更好的考虑不同水文参数之间的约束关系,优化后的水文参数具有很好的一致性,优化效果较直接优化水文参数更好。     

An Analytic Solution to Well-water Level Changes under Barometric Pressure

Under barometric pressure,groundwater flow in well-aquifer systems is a kind of hydro-mechanical coupling problem.Applying the flux boundary conditions on borehole wall and water pressure equilibrium conditions inside and outside the borehole wall under barometric pressure(BP),an analytic solution to well-water level changes has been proposed in this paper.The formulation shows that the BP coefficients increase with time and tend to BP constant.The Change of BP coefficients over time depends only on the ratio of transmissivity(T) to the well radius squared(r2w),and has nothing to do with the change in BP.The BP constant only relates to aquifer loading efficiency(B),and has nothing to do with the aquifer transmissivity and well radius.The BP coefficients change over time in the analytic formulation is consistent with the analysis of measured data from the Nanxi wells.Based on the BP coefficient changes over time,a parameter estimation method is suggested and discussed in its application to the estimation of the aquifer BP constant(or B) and transmissivity by using the Nanxi well data.     

Inverse determination of soil density and stress state using dispersion wave measurements and cone penetration tests in a non-layered soil

The determination of the void ratio and stress state distribution in undisturbed soil is still an ambitious aim which cannot be reached by sampling from bore holes. Therefore, an alternative method is proposed to determine soil density and stress state using dispersion wave measurements and cone penetration tests. Dispersion wave measurements and resonant-column tests are carried out to measure the shear wave velocity and shear modulus distribution with depth. Using finite element calculations a relationship between cone penetration resistance, stress state and void ratio is derived. From these results the void ratio distribution and the stress state can be calculated inversely. The inverse method is applied to real test data. The results of the inverse parameter determination are shown and assessed regarding the possibilities and the limitations of the presented method.     

地震孕育过程中若干地震学特征参量研究

从新疆实际出发提出一种简捷的预报程式,用以判定地震三要素。结果表明,(1)新疆3级地震累积频次低于均值6个月,1年内新疆发生6级地震的概率为90%;(2)以新疆地震活跃期响应地震分布区做为预备震源区,该区未来3年发生中强震的概率为86%;(3)预备震源区出现一年以上低6值,其250 km区域1年内发生6级地震的概率为75%;(4)当系统处于相对稳定状态时系统内部个体的涨落很难使系统出现非线性响应,而当系统处于亚失稳状态时,系统内部个体的涨落有可能触发系统中处于高应力状态下的地震活动。     

Calibration of subsurface batch and reactive-transport models involving complex biogeochemical processes

In this study, the calibration of subsurface batch and reactive-transport models involving complex biogeochemical processes was systematically evaluated. Two hypothetical nitrate biodegradation scenarios were developed and simulated in numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of three calibration search procedures: a multi-start non-linear regression algorithm (i.e. multi-start Levenberg–Marquardt), a global search heuristic (i.e. particle swarm optimization), and a hybrid algorithm that combines the particle swarm procedure with a regression-based “polishing” step. Graphical analysis of the selected calibration problems revealed heterogeneous regions of extreme parameter sensitivity and insensitivity along with abundant numbers of local minima. These characteristics hindered the performance of the multi-start non-linear regression technique, which was generally the least effective of the considered algorithms. In most cases, the global search and hybrid methods were capable of producing improved model fits at comparable computational expense. In other cases, the multi-start and hybrid calibration algorithms yielded comparable fitness values but markedly differing parameter estimates and associated uncertainty measures.     

基于PCA-RBF神经网络的航空飞行几何参数拟合

采用地面异常线圈对直升机时域航空电磁探测系统进行标定时,发射-接收线圈姿态的变化将导致实测数据产生误差,影响标定的精度.本文基于时间域航空电磁系统,计算了发射-接收线圈姿态任意变化时异常线圈的电磁响应,提出了主成分分析-径向基神经网络(PCA-RBF)的拟合算法,采用主成分分析法提取飞行几何参数的贡献率,利用径向基神经网络法对电磁响应进行了测线剖面的批量数据拟合,并对理论仿真和河南桐柏直升机飞行试验数据进行拟合分析,单一异常体理论数据的绝对误差平均值小于20 nV·m-2,双异常体理论数据绝对误差平均值为160 nV·m-2.野外实测数据在异常线圈中心位置的拟合相对误差小于1%,整条剖面测线的拟合相对误差小于±6%,平均值为2.5%.结果表明PCA-RBF拟合算法能够较好地实现航空电磁系统飞行参数的拟合,为航空电磁系统海量实测数据的快速处理提供了新方法.     

潮流能发电装置现状分析

潮流能是海洋新能源中相对稳定且可提前预报的一类,较传统的拦坝式潮汐能开发具有环境影响小、开发规模灵活等优点,其大力发展可为海岛经济发展和海洋观测设备提供能源。文章对潮流能发电技术的研究现状进行了总结分析,详细介绍了水平轴、垂直轴和其他形式潮流能发电装置的构造以及国际上主流装置的设计参数和试验示范情况,重点对比分析了不同类型潮流能发电装置的特点和技术参数,简要总结了我国潮流能示范电站安装运行情况,并对其装置类型、导流罩作用以及布放形式等内容进行了讨论,可为我国潮流能资源的开发利用和潮流能装置测试区建设提供科学参考和设计依据。     

Moveout approximation for horizontal transversely isotropic and vertical transversely isotropic layered medium. Part II: effective model‡

We use residual moveouts measured along continuous full azimuth reflection angle gathers, in order to obtain effective horizontal transversely isotropic model parameters. The angle gathers are generated through a special angle domain imaging system, for a wide range of reflection angles and full range of phase velocity azimuths. The estimation of the effective model parameters is performed in two stages. First, the background horizontal transversely isotropic (HTI)/vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) layered model is used, along with the values of reflection angles, for converting the measured residual moveouts (or traveltime errors) into azimuthally dependent normal moveout (NMO) velocities. Then we apply a digital Fourier transform to convert the NMO velocities into azimuthal wavenumber domain, in order to obtain the effective HTI model parameters: vertical time, vertical compression velocity, Thomsen parameter delta and the azimuth of the medium axis of symmetry. The method also provides a reliability criterion of the HTI assumption. The criterion shows whether the medium possesses the HTI type of symmetry, or whether the azimuthal dependence of the residual traveltime indicates to a more complex azimuthal anisotropy. The effective model used in this approach is defined for a 1D structure with a set of HTI, VTI and isotropic layers (with at least one HTI layer). We describe and analyse the reduction of a multi‐layer structure into an equivalent effective HTI model. The equivalent model yields the same NMO velocity and the same offset azimuth on the Earth's surface as the original layered structure, for any azimuth of the phase velocity. The effective model approximates the kinematics of an HTI/VTI layered structure using only a few parameters. Under the hyperbolic approximation, the proposed effective model is exact.     

A new parameterization for generalized moveout approximation,based on three rays

A simple and accurate traveltime approximation is important in many applications in seismic data processing, inversion and modelling stages. Generalized moveout approximation is an explicit equation that approximates reflection traveltimes in general two-dimensional models. Definition of its five parameters can be done from properties of finite offset rays, for general models, or by explicit calculation from model properties, for specific models. Two versions of classical finite-offset parameterization for this approximation use traveltime and traveltime derivatives of two rays to define five parameters, which makes them asymmetrical. Using a third ray, we propose a balance between the number of rays and the order of traveltime derivatives. Our tests using different models also show the higher accuracy of the proposed method. For acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis, we calculate a new moveout approximation in the generalized moveout approximation functional form, which is explicitly defined by three independent parameters of zero-offset two-way time, normal moveout velocity and anellipticity parameter. Our test shows that the maximum error of the proposed transversely isotropic moveout approximation is about 1/6 to 1/8 of that of the moveout approximation that had been reported as the most accurate approximation in these media. The higher accuracy is the result of a novel parameterization that do not add any computational complexity. We show a simple example of its application on synthetic seismic data.