地震活动性参数的确定

本文基于目前国际上比较先进的地震危险性概率法,讨论了其中各地震活动性参数的具体确定方式及在实际工作中应该注意的问题。     

新疆南天山西段地震波参数前兆识别预报指标及效能评价

系统总结了新疆南天山地区5个地震台记录的共计49年的地震波资料,提取了异常判据、预报指标,并对计算结果做了R评价。     

地面有效辐射气候学模型评估和参数优化

基于中国19个辐射站1993-2012年的地面辐射平衡资料和气象资料,分析评估了布朗特法、彭曼法、别尔良德法、FAO24法、FAO56-PM法、邓根云法和童宏良法7种参数化方案计算中国地面有效辐射的适用性;并以均方根误差最小为目标函数,利用步长加速法和多元回归法迭代求解最优参数,建立适合于中国的最优参数化逐日有效辐射估算方法。结果表明:参与评估的7种方案都不同程度低估了中国的有效辐射;从全中国总体误差水平看,童宏良法的平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差小于其他6种方案,分别为27.0%和24.5 W/m2,估算效果较好;其次是彭曼法和邓根云法;FAO56-PM法精度较低,不适用于中国的有效辐射估算。针对单站来说,邓根云法在东部平原地区的精度最高,童宏良法由于考虑了海拔高度的订正,适用于西部高原地区。相关分析表明水汽压是影响有效辐射估算误差的最关键因素,因此根据水汽压的地理分布规律,分东部区和西部区建立分区方案。基于观测资料建立的全中国方案和分区方案的均方根误差分别为20.8和21.4 W/m2,精度均高于已有参与评估的7种方案;而且在绝大多数站点,分区方案的误差小于全中国方案,所以划分东部区和西部区进行有效辐射模型参数化很有必要。同时发现,分区方案在西部区明显优于邓根云法,在东部区明显优于童宏良法,因此推荐其作为中国有效辐射的计算方法。      

On the Role of Wind Direction in ERS SAR Signatures of Internal Waves on the Iberian Shelf

The relationship between internal wave (IW) signatures in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images and wind velocity is investigated. The effect of the wind velocity relative to the IW propagation direction on the IW signature is studied by means of a defined signature mode parameter ( S m ). S m is the parameter that quantifies the signature of the IW intensity profile in relation to the mean backscatter of the image background.

A wind contrast model based on a simple first-order Bragg scattering theory is combined with hydrodynamic modulation theory to explain the modulation of IW signatures. It takes into account the modulation of short-scale surface waves by the effect of the relative variations of wind velocity and the surface currents generated by the IWs.

It is shown that the signature mode parameter increases with the angle between the wind velocity and the IW propagation direction so that IWs propagating against the wind direction are imaged mostly as positive sign signatures, while those propagating in the wind direction are mostly negative sign signatures.     

雷达干涉PS网络的基线识别与解算方法

时序雷达干涉图中的永久散射体(PS)可看作“天然GPS点”, 以构成网络用于监测长期的地表形变. 本文提出采用邻接矩阵拓扑模型对基于Delaunay剖分算法生成的PS网络进行基线识别, 并采用时序相干最大化算法求解PS基线的线性形变速度增量和高程误差增量. 该数据模型和计算方法被应用于探测香港地区2006~2007年间的区域地表沉降. 实验研究采用由Envisat卫星ASAR传感器对该地区成像所获取的时序SAR影像作为数据源, 并联合该地区12个GPS连续运行参考站的观测数据予以大气修正和地面控制. 实验结果表明, 该模型和方法应用于地表形变测量是有效的和可靠的, PS网络方法探测地面沉降的精度约为±2.0 mm/a.     

外包钢套加固震损双层高架桥框架式桥墩抗震性能评估与参数分析

基于《公路桥梁抗震设计规范》“两阶段”设防原则,采用SAP2000有限元软件建立震损加固桥墩数值模型,通过构建与设防水准地震相匹配的结构性能水准,选取基底剪力和墩顶位移作为结构性能评价指标,建立基于能力需求比的双层高架桥墩抗震性能评估流程,从抗震性能和损伤修复效果角度,对外包钢套含钢量和强度的影响进行分析。研究结果表明,中度损伤试件经外包钢套加固后基底剪力和墩顶位移能力需求比分别提高了76.72%、62.93%,重度损伤试件经外包钢套加固后基底剪力和墩顶位移能力需求比分别提高了62.98%、51.94%;当外包钢套含钢量ρ<0.98%时,重度损伤加固试件基底剪力能力需求比呈负向增长,承载能力修复效果不理想;当外包钢套含钢量ρ>2.08%时,中度损伤及重度损伤加固试件墩顶位移能力需求比提高率大于基底剪力,此时变形能力修复效果优于承载能力;提高外包钢套强度显著增强了中度损伤和重度损伤加固试件承载能力,但变形能力基本不提高。     

Can Euler deconvolution outline three-dimensional magnetic sources?

Severe limitations of the standard Euler deconvolution to outline source shapes have been pointed out. However, Euler deconvolution has been widely employed on field data to outline interfaces, as faults and thrust zones. We investigate the limitations of the 3D Euler deconvolution–derived estimates of source dip and volume with the use of reduced-to-the-pole synthetic and field anomalies. The synthetic anomalies are generated by two types of source bodies: (1) uniformly magnetized prisms, presenting either smooth or rough interfaces, and (2) bodies presenting smooth delimiting interfaces but strong internal variation of magnetization intensity. The dip of the first type of body might be estimated from the Euler deconvolution solution cluster if the ratio between the depth to the top and vertical extent is relatively high (>1/4). For the second type of body, besides dip, the source volume can be approximately delimited from the solution cluster envelope, regardless of the referred ratio. We apply Euler deconvolution to two field anomalies which are caused by a curved-shape thrust zone and by a banded iron formation. These anomalies are chosen because they share characteristics with the two types of synthetic bodies. For the thrust zone, the obtained Euler deconvolution solutions show spatial distribution allowing to estimate a source dip that is consistent with the surface geology data, even if the above-mentioned ratio is much less than 1/4. Thus, there are other factors, such as a heterogeneous magnetization, which might be controlling the vertical spreading of the Euler deconvolution solutions in the thrust zone. On the other hand, for the iron-ore formation, the solution cluster spreads out occupying a volume, in accordance with the results obtained with the synthetic sources having internal variation of magnetization intensity. As conclusion, although Euler deconvolution–derived solutions cannot offer accurate estimates of source shapes, they might provide a sufficient degree of reliability in the initial estimates of the source dip and volume, which may be useful in a later phase of more accurate modelling.     

基于粒子群优化最小二乘向量机的地震预测模型

为解决地震预测中最小二乘向量机(LSSVM)模型的参数难以确定的问题,利用粒子群算法(PSO)的收敛速度快和全局优化能力,优化LSSVM模型的惩罚因子和核函数参数,建立了PSO-LSSVM地震预测模型.通过对地震实例的预测仿真及其相关分析表明该方法的有效性.该方法优于传统的神经网络和支持向量机的地震预测方法,可以有效提高预测效能.