From the geological to the numerical model in the analysis of gravity-induced slope deformations: An example from the Central Apennines (Italy)

This paper presents the findings from a study on gravity-induced slope deformations along the northern slope of Mt. Nuria (Rieti-Italy). The slope extends from the village of Pendenza to the San Vittorino plain and hosts the Peschiera River springs, i.e. the most important springs of the Central Apennines (average discharge: about 18 m³/s).

Detailed geological-geomorphological and geomechanical surveys, supported by a site stress-strain monitoring system and laboratory tests, led us to define the main evolutionary features of the studied phenomena. Based on the collected data, a “geological-evolutionary model” was developed with a view to identifying a spatio-temporal correlation between relief forms, jointing of the rock mass and its stress conditions. The geological-evolutionary model was expected to improve numerical simulations and to test our assumptions.

The numerical model also allowed us to simulate changes in the stress-strain conditions of the rock mass and correlate them with jointing, seepage, as well as with site-detected and site-monitored forms and deformations. In particular, significant relations between seepage, tensile stresses within the rock mass, karst solution and collapse of cavities were identified.     

澜沧江某水电站右坝肩工程边坡倾倒变形问题的数值 模拟研究

澜沧江某水电站处于青藏高原东部边缘地带,属于高山峡谷地形地貌,高地应力环境,岩体卸荷裂隙很发育,使得倾倒变形和岩体质量、断裂活动及地震构造一样成为影响工程边坡岩体稳定的主要因素。针对工程边坡的大变形问题可采用离散元的数值模拟分析方法。通过建立理论开挖和工程边坡开挖离散元模型,可分别得出倾倒变形破坏机理发展过程为初期弱倾倒变形岩体的层内剪切错动、强倾倒变形岩体的层内拉张变形、强倾倒变形岩体的切层张-剪破裂及极强倾倒破裂岩体的折断张裂(坠覆)破裂和工程边坡的变形范围、确定开挖面及加固方式等。通过工程边坡模型的计算结果和现场地质调查成果的比较表明,计算结果和实际情况基本吻合。     

Uncertainty in projections of the South Asian summer monsoon under global warming by CMIP6 models: Role of tropospheric meridional thermal contrast

本文基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划共18个模式的工业革命前实验和CO₂浓度突然四倍实验,发现在CO₂四倍强迫下,南亚夏季风环流呈显著减弱趋势,但减弱强度存在较大模式间差异.利用Webster-Yang指数和经向哈得莱环流指数的下降趋势表征SASM减弱强度,发现该下降趋势与欧亚大陆-印度洋之间对流层上层经向温度梯度的变化值(EUTT-IUTT)高度相关.进一步利用气候反馈-响应分析方法进行分析,发现EUTT-IUTT变化的模式间差异主要来自于大气动力过程,其次是云的短波辐射效应的贡献.地表潜热通量和云的长波辐射效应缩小了EUTT-IUTT变化的模式间差异.     

黄海、渤海底层温度数值预报方法的研究

根据文献［ｌ］建立的底层温度（ＴＨ）与其水柱垂向平均温度（）的经验关系，结合流体动力学方程和（垂向平均）热传导方程，发展了以水气温差和风速为已知量的底层温度二维数值预报模式。该模式避开了海面热量和动量输入在垂直水柱中分配的复杂物理过程而直接报出底层水温场，具有较好的实用性；此外，从试报结果看，效果令人满意。     

基于岩心室应力应变和不确定度分析的致密储层氦孔隙度测量方法

致密油气层的物性(孔隙度和渗透率)较差.针对致密储层,目前常用的氦气法孔隙度测量方法存在两个不足:器壁压变性参数G定义不明确;膨胀前压力设置普遍偏小.本次基于氦气法孔隙度测量装置岩心室的应力应变力学分析和不确定度理论分析,开发了一种面向致密储层的氦孔隙度测量方法.本次提出的方法给出了器壁压变性参数G的解析式,并基于G的解析式推导出了新的孔隙度计算公式,将刻度系数减少到1个,简化了刻度过程.其次,基于不确定度理论得到的孔隙度测量不确定度表明:氦气法测量致密储层孔隙度的膨胀前压力大于2 MPa基本可以将孔隙度绝对误差控制在0.5%以内.与高压压汞法孔隙度测量结果对比发现,该方法测量孔隙度的相对偏差在14%以内,远低于常规氦气法测量孔隙度的相对偏差(50%).     

一次江淮大暴雨过程中尺度系统结构分析

本文应用观测资料和中尺度数值模拟结果对1999年6月23日发生在江淮地区一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行研究，揭示了影响这次暴雨过程的物理条件、云团的演变特征及与中尺度系统的关系，分析表明，在暴雨生成和发展过程中，多个中尺度云团在相继生成和移动发展，暴雨中心是几个发展较强的中尺度对流云团造成的，西南风低空急流为暴雨提供了水汽输送，并且通过强垂直运动向对流层中上层输送水汽，这次暴雨与中尺度系统发生发展有直接关系，西南涡分裂出一系列的小涡旋，这些小涡旋边向东移边减弱，并且同时在地面上引发小低压，这些中尺度低压增强低空水平辐合，成为触发不稳定能量的机制，低空急流中心与雨区相互对应，且急流风速增强，风速水平切变梯度增大的过程对应着强降水过程。     

A survey of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations

The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.     

胶州湾三维变动边界的潮流数值模拟

基于Blumberg等（1986）的河口、陆架和海洋模式，引入变边界处理技术，建立了胶州湾三维变动边界的潮流模型，模型以σ-正交曲线坐标下三维非线性潮波方程为基本方程，引入2.5阶瑞封闭方程组，采用分裂算子法数值求解方程组，利用湍封闭方程求解垂直紊动粘滞系数，采用干湿网格方法模拟潮流漫滩过程，三维变动边界潮流模型计算结果与实测值吻合良好。     

Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary: A Lagrangian modeling study

A Lagrangian particle method embedded within a 2-D finite element code, is used to study the transport and ocean–estuary exchange processes in the well-mixed Great Bay Estuarine System in New Hampshire, USA. The 2-D finite element model, driven by residual, semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents, includes the effects of wetting and drying of estuarine mud flats through the use of a porous medium transport module. The particle method includes tidal advection, plus a random walk model in the horizontal that simulates sub-grid scale turbulent transport processes. Our approach involves instantaneous, massive [O(500,000)] particle releases that enable the quantification of ocean–estuary and inter-bay exchanges in a Markovian framework. The effects of the release time, spring–neap cycle, riverine discharge and diffusion strength on the intra-estuary and estuary–ocean exchange are also investigated.The results show a rather dynamic interaction between the ocean and the estuary with a fraction of the exiting particles being caught up in the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current and swept away. Three somewhat different estimates of estuarine residence time are calculated to provide complementary views of estuary flushing. Maps of residence time versus release location uncover a strong spatial dependency of residence time within the estuary that has very important ramifications for local water quality. Simulations with and without the turbulent random walk show that the combined effect of advective shear and turbulent diffusion is very effective at spreading particles throughout the estuary relatively quickly, even at low (1 m²/s) diffusivity. The results presented here show that a first-order Markov Chain approach has applicability and a high potential for improving our understanding of the mixing processes in estuaries.