Socio-economic aspects of boat-based ecotourism during the sardine run within the Pondoland Marine Protected Area,South Africa

Understanding recreational aspects of the tourism industry developing around the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run is important for the protection and sustainability of the Pondoland Marine Protected Area (MPA), on the south-east coast of South Africa. Between June and July 2007, a total of 128 people visited this area to experience the sardine run using boat-based access. An onsite questionnaire survey of 108 (84.4%) participants at Port St Johns and Mbotyi indicated that the direct value of their visit was around R5.47 million (95% CI = R5.14–5.82 million). Although the benefits of the sardine run tourism industry extend throughout the South African economy, local indigenous communities receive little direct benefit. Almost half of all sardine run participants, however, showed a willingness to contribute R500 or more towards a community development programme. On a ranking from one (poor) to five (excellent), the average participant's response to overall quality of the experience and quality of the dive charter was 3.9 and 4.4, respectively. Over a quarter (27%) of participants never saw a sardine during their visit, despite the fact that their trip was marketed as ‘the sardine run’, so participant experiences often did not meet with expectations. The sardine run within the Pondoland MPA is currently an undermarketed and underexploited resource.     

基于条件价值法的气象服务效益评估研究

近年来极端灾害性天气频发,日益引起人们对气象服务的重视,而如何评估气象服务效益的价值一直是个难题。＂气象服务效益评估的技术与方法研究＂课题组以条件价值法为基础,设计了问卷,针对＂中国天气网＂的网民、南京信息工程大学的教师和学生共获取了近5万个数据。首先对数据进行了描述性统计,得到了一系列富有启示意义的结论;采用条件价值法计算得知,我国网络民众每年的支付意愿值为73.6亿元到205.8亿元之间。多元回归分析还显示,与支付意愿直接正相关的因素包括受访者的受教育年限、户外工作时间、月收入、年龄和居住地等;如果受访者本人或其家属在气象部门工作时,对气象服务的支付意愿也呈现增加的趋势。而性别、本地居住时间等变量并不显著。最后还提出了几点建议。     

Development of contingent valuation method in evaluating non-market values of resources and environment in China

The contingent valuation method (CVM) is one of the main methods for evaluating non-market values of resources. It originated in the United States and was introduced into China during the 1980s and 1990s. However, application of CVM in China is highly controversial based on three primary aspects: (1) the appropriate guidelines for CVM; (2) the elicitation techniques for willingness to pay (WTP); and (3) reliability and validity testing of CVM. The major objectives of this paper are to review the recent developments pertaining to guidelines, elicitation techniques, and reliability and validity testing for application of CVM, and to summarize the limitations of and measures for improving application of CVM in China. The applicability of CVM in China is discussed to enhance the future development of CVM in China.     

论元古界矿源层

本文依据众多已知的矿床实例,说明元古宙不仅是重要的成矿时代,而且成为显生宙成矿的重要矿源层。“元古界矿源层”的概念可以把成矿作用的演化与大陆壳的演化联系起来,指出大地构造背景与成矿作用形式的内在联系。作者还对元古界矿源层的形成给予了概略论述。作者指出,“元古界矿源层”概念将会开拓通过区域基底地球化学背景的研究,进行了有效成矿预测的新途径。     

广西柳江县荒山荒地资源开发利用研究

通过对广西柳江县荒山荒地资源的特点及开发条件分析、土地适宜性评价，在 此基础上提出荒山荒地资源开发利用原则和对策．     

宝天高速公路沿线保护生态环境总经济价值评估

条件价值评估法是当前国际上流行的衡量环境物品非利用经济价值的唯一方法。通过调查居民针对不同环境状况变化的支付意愿,从而定量确定环境状况变化带来的经济效益和损失。针对宝天高速公路修建过程中沿线保护生态环境的问题,用支付卡的方法设计了320份调查问卷,调查了沿线居民对保护宝天高速公路沿线生态环境的支付意愿(WTP)。结果表明:在宝天高速公路修路过程中采取各种技术措施,使沿线的生态环境尽可能保持原样,沿线总共有84.33%的居民家庭有支付意愿,有支付意愿家庭的平均支付意愿为每年每户62.17元,将这一结果推广到面上,得到保护宝天高速公路沿线生态环境的总经济价值为:5781 756元。     

Economic and ecosystem costs and benefits of alternative land use and management scenarios in the Lake Rotorua,New Zealand,catchment

A significant challenge in resource management is addressed: the perceived trade-off between economic growth and ecosystem restoration and conservation. Traditional approaches to management regard restoration as a potential cost to economic productivity. In this study we show that by considering a broader range of economic values, including ecosystem services values, an argument can be made that restoration of lake ecosystems also leads to favourable economic outcomes when commonly disregarded values are considered. Our case study analyses the ecological outcomes of different catchment mitigation and land use scenarios in terms of water quality results in a lake, assessing changes in land use values based on opportunity costs, and ecosystem services values. We show that when considering the value of ecosystem services, intensive agricultural land use is not necessarily the most economically valuable form of land use within a lake catchment. Indeed, a shift towards alternative land uses within a catchment can lead to both ongoing economic benefits and improvements in water quality. In this context, land-use change offers an option for water quality improvement that minimises lake and land mitigation costs, while adding value to catchment land use. An argument is made supporting land use change towards indigenous forest types, which can sustain alternative sources of income such as a range of recreational values, while supporting important ecosystem functions for the region.     

油气资源评价中成因法分析与运聚系数取值模型研究

成因法是油气资源评价中常用的方法,能较好地体现含油气盆地的生烃、排烃、运聚等过程,具有明确的地质意义,可用来计算油气资源量的"上限值"。其中运聚系数取值是成因法计算的重难点,因此有必要建立一个简单有效并能体现出成因法计算特点的运聚系数取值模型。本文从成因法的自身特点出发,分析了目前运聚系数取值存在的问题,初步建立了运聚系数取值模型。该模型将计算过程分为排烃过程、运移过程、聚集过程、储存过程、破坏过程、资源比例过程这6个过程,并分别设立了6个过程中各项参数的取值依据。最后通过2个刻度区的实例验证,证明该取值模型准确度较高,在中-低勘探程度地区适用性较高,在高勘探程度地区适用性中等。     

基于多传感器估值融合理论的地质灾害变形监测方法研究

在开展地质灾害变形监测的过程中,由于传感器采集数据结果会受到客观环境的影响而出现异常情况,导致对变形情况的监测结果与实际情况存在较大误差,为此,提出基于多传感器估值融合理论的地质灾害变形监测方法研究。在对多传感器数据进行预处理阶段,引入了估值融合理论,具体采用的融合算法为最小误差均方差法,利用其对传感器采集数据结果中的异常值进行校正。在变形监测阶段,充分利用了多个数据源（传感器）对同一目标进行观测时的特征构成,结合观测特征、实时状态数据与发展函数三者之间的关系,实现对地质灾害变形情况的有效监测。在测试结果中,设计方法能够获取某地铁隧道水平方向上和垂直方向上的位移结果,具有较高的可靠性和精度。     

运用开放式条件估值方法评估恢复额济纳旗生态系统服务的总经济价值

条件估值方法(CVM)是当前国际上流行的衡量环境物品非利用经济价值的主要方法之一,它通过调查居民针对恢复或改善环境状况变化的支付意愿,从而定量地估计环境状况变化带来的经济效益和损失.针对黑河流域额济纳旗生态系统恶化的现状,以开放式问卷的调查方法设计了500份调查问卷,调查了黑河流域居民恢复额济纳旗生态系统的支付意愿,并采用非参数分析方法对结果进行分析.结果表明,用20年的时间将额济纳旗的生态系统恢复到80年代初的水平,黑河流域总共有93.2%的居民家庭存在支付意愿,有支付意愿家庭的平均支付意愿为每年每户44.9元,同时采用列联表检验的方法辨明了被调查者的年龄、学历、收入、户籍和居住的地理区域等因素对支付意愿的影响.最后在综合不同区域居民支付意愿差异的基础上,采用当前的市场利率将计算结果在时空尺度上加总,得到恢复黑河下游额济纳生态系统的总经济价值的现值为1.224×10⁸元.