Some applications of a backpropagation neural network in geo-engineering

A MATLAB based backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model has been developed. Two major geo-engineering applications, namely, earth slope movement and ground movement around tunnels, are identified. Data obtained from case studies are used to train and test the developed model and the ground movement is predicted with the help of input variables that have direct physical significance. A new approach is adopted by introducing an infiltration coefficient in the network architecture apart from antecedent rainfall, slope profile, groundwater level and strength parameters to predict the slope movement. The input variables for settlement around underground excavations are taken from literature. The neural network models demonstrate a promising result predicting fairly successfully the ground behavior in both cases. If input variables influencing output goals are clearly identified and if a decent number of quality data are available, backpropagation neural network can be successfully applied as mapping and prediction tools in geotechnical investigations.     

Tectonic and climatic control of the changes in the sedimentary record of the Karnali River section (Siwaliks of western Nepal)

Abstract A multidisciplinary study was conducted on the section of the Siwalik Group sediments, approximately 5000 m thick, exposed along the Karnali River. Analysis of facies, clay mineralogy and neodymium isotope compositions revealed significant changes in the sedimentary record, allowing discussion of their tectonic or climatic origin. Two major changes within the sedimentary fill were detected: the change from a meandering to a braided river system at ca 9.5 Ma and the change from a deep sandy braided to a shallow sandy braided river system at ca 6.5 Ma. The 9.5‐Ma change in fluvial style is contemporaneous with an abrupt increase of ?_Nd(0) values following a ?_Nd(0) minimum. This evolution indicates a change in source material and erosion of Lesser Himalayan rocks within the Karnali catchment basin between 13 and 10 Ma. The tectonic activity along the Ramgarh thrust caused this local exhumation. By changing the proximity and morphology of relief, the forward propagation of the basal detachment to the main boundary thrust was responsible for the high gradient and sediment load required for the development of the braided river system. The change from a deep sandy braided to a shallow sandy braided river system at approximately 6.5 Ma was contemporaneous with a change in clay mineralogy towards smectite‐/kaolinite‐dominant assemblages. As no source rock change and no burial effect are detected at that time, the change in clay mineralogy is interpreted as resulting from differences in environmental conditions. The facies analysis shows abruptly and frequently increasing discharges by 6.5 Ma, and could be linked to an increase in seasonality, induced by intensification of the monsoon climate. The major fluvial changes deciphered along the Karnali section have been recognized from central to western Nepal, although they are diachronous. The change in clay mineralogy towards smectite‐/kaolinite‐rich assemblages and the slight decrease of ?_Nd(0) have also been detected in the Bengal Fan sedimentary record, showing the extent and importance of the two major events recorded along the Karnali section.     

Nature–society and development: social, cultural and ecological change in Nepal

This paper presents a theoretical framework for analyzing human–environment issues that examines shifting, dialectical relationships between social and power relations, cultural beliefs and practices, and ecological processes to allow an interdisciplinary, complex assessment of social and environmental change in Nepal. The purpose of this analysis is to capture the complexity and non-static nature of environmental and social change in the context of uneven development. Drawing from political ecology and feminist geography, this framework brings together scholarship on aspects of human–environment issues that are often pursued in isolation, yet all three processes, social–political relations, cultural practices and ecological conditions, have been acknowledged as important in shaping the trajectory of social and ecological change. I argue that a consideration of the articulations between them is necessary to understand first, how specific land management regimes arise and are dominant over time in specific places. And second, I examine the extent to which these regimes distribute resources equitably within communities, promote economic development and sustain ecological resilience. In this analysis, ecological processes are conceptualised as co-productive of social and cultural processes to explore their role in land management regimes without resorting to environmental determinist or similarly reductive paradigms. I present this framework through the example of natural resource management, specifically community forestry in Nepal, as it offers a rich case study of the relationships between the political economy of land use and the ecological effects of natural resource extraction.     

Low recruitment above treeline indicates treeline stability under changing climate in Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve,Western Nepal

A treeline can respond to climate change by shifting position, infilling, increasing recruitment, and increasing radial growth. More studies from understudied areas and their associated species are needed to understand treeline structure and dynamics. We established two transects of 20 m width and 120 m length (100 m above and 20 m below the forestline) in the Betula utilis subalpine forest of the Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve in Western Nepal. All individuals of B. utilis within the transects were classified into three height classes – trees (>2 m), saplings (0.5–2 m), and seedlings (<0.5 m) – and measured for morphometric features. Tree-ring cores were collected for age structure analysis. B. utilis forms an abrupt treeline in the region, and the mean forestline and treeline elevations were 3893 and 3898 m, respectively. The average age (57 yr) of trees at the treeline ecotone suggests a young stand. Poor regeneration was observed above the forestline in both transects when compared to below the forestline. Low regeneration at the treeline ecotone suggests site-specific biotic and abiotic controlling factors. Seedling and sapling establishment above the forestline is limited by a lack of moisture, absence of suitable microsites, and presence of herbivores.     

Rupture imaging of the 25 April 2015 MW7.9 Nepal earthquake from back-projection of teleseismic P waves

The M_W7.9 Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 had over 8, 500 fatalities and was the most destructive earthquake in Nepal since the Bihar-Nepal earthquake in 1934. In this study, we imaged the rupture process of this Nepal event by back-projecting the teleseismic P-wave energy recorded at the three regional networks in Alaska, Australia and Europe. The back-projection images of the three subarrays revealed that the Nepal earthquake propagated along the strike in a southeast direction over a distance of ~ 160–170 km with the duration of ~ 50–55 s. The rupture process was found to be a simple, unilateral event with a near constant velocity of 3.3 km/s. The beam power was mainly distributed in the geographic region just north of Kathmandu and the peak intensity for the source time function curve occurred at about 30 s. The earthquake was destructive due to its occurrence at shallow depth (~ 12–15 km) and the fact that the capital lies in a basin of soft sediment. Additionally, the resonance effect for the longer period waves that occurred in the Kathmandu valley led to destructive aggravation, impacting mainly the taller buildings.     

尼泊尔M_W7.8地震InSAR同震形变场及断层滑动分布

采用DInSAR技术和欧空局2014年新发射的Sentinel-1A/IW数据,获取了2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_W7.8地震的InSAR同震形变场.所用InSAR数据扫描范围东西长约500 km,南北宽约250 km,覆盖了整个变形区域,揭示了形变场的全貌及其空间连续变化形态.此次地震造成的地表形变场总体呈现为中部宽两端窄的纺锤形,从震中向东偏南约20°方向延伸,主要形变区东西长约160 km,南北宽约110 km,由规模较大的南部隆升区和规模较小的北部沉降区组成,南部最大LOS向隆升量达1.1 m,北部最大LOS向沉降量约在0.55 m.在隆升和沉降区之间干涉纹图连续变化,没有出现由于形变梯度过大或地表破裂而导致的失相干现象,表明地震断层未破裂到地表.基于InSAR形变场和部分GPS观测数据,利用弹性半空间低倾角单一断层面模型进行了滑动分布单独反演和联合反演,三种反演结果均显示出一个明显的位于主震震中以东的滑动分布集中区,向外围衰减很快,主要滑动发生于地下7~23 km的深度范围内.InSAR单独反演的破裂范围,特别是东西向破裂长度大于GPS单独反演的破裂长度,而InSAR单独反演的最大滑动量则低于GPS单独反演的滑动量.因此认为联合反演结果更为可靠.联合反演的破裂面长约150 km,沿断层倾向宽约70 km,最大滑移量达到4.39 m,矩震级为M_W7.84,与之前用地震波数据和GPS数据反演的结果一致.     

2015年尼泊尔Gorkha地震强地面运动记录分析

2015年4月25日在尼泊尔Gorkha地区发生M_W7.8地震,距离发震断层约11 km的KATNP台站完整记录了主震的加速度时程.本文根据KATNP台站记录的加速度数据分析了Gorkha地震的地震动特征.结果表明Gorkha地震在KATNP台站处产生的水平向峰值加速度为0.17 g,竖直向峰值加速度为0.19 g,该数值小于科学家们对如此大规模地震产生的地震动的预期,初步推测这可能是由加德满都山谷产生的非线性响应造成的（Dixit et al.,2015）;地震在KATNP台站处产生了地表永久位移,其中竖向永久位移为131.9 cm,水平向永久位移的绝对值为159.2 cm,方向为南偏西19°（199°）,据此可简单推算出断层走向约为289°（109°）.地震产生了脉冲型地震动,影响因素有盆地效应、地震破裂的向前的方向性效应以及滑冲效应,其中盆地效应的周期约为5 s左右,方向性效应产生的速度脉冲的周期约为8 s左右.加速度反应谱显示在0.5 s和5.0 s左右各有一个峰值,前者是由地震破裂的脉冲式滑移产生的大量高频地震动造成的,后者是由于盆地效应和地震破裂的方向性效应造成的.基于阿里亚斯烈度计算的地震动持时约在36~46 s之间,小于与其规模相当的地震产生的地震动持时,并且不同方向上的地震动持时可能与地震破裂方向有关.阿里亚斯烈度随时间的变化比较简单,也反映了Gorkha地震是一次连续的、能量释放相对简单的地震事件.     

STUDY ON DISPLACEMENT OF THE PEAKS OF THE HIMALAYA GENERATED BY THE 2015 NEPAL EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE

Based on the rupture models of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence and half space homogeneous elastic model, the displacement field near the epicenters is estimated. The horizontal components converge to the epicenters from north and south with maximum value of 871~962mm. The farther the epicenter distance is, the smaller of the horizontal displacement occurred. The displacement on the south side of the epicenters decreases more rapidly than that on the north side as the distance from the epicenter increased. Significant settlement occurred on the north side of the epicenters with maximum of 376~474mm, while large uplift occurred on the epicenters and its south side with maximum value of 626~677mm. Then, the displacement of the peaks of the Himalaya near the epicenters is estimated. The largest displacement occurred at the peak of Shishapangma with 393mm horizontal component and 36mm settlement. Mt. Everest, the world's highest peak, moves 36mm in nearly southward direction with 9mm settlement. The displacements of other peaks of the Himalaya are different with the epicentral distance and azimuth of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence.     

THE COSEISMIC SOURCE SLIP AND COULOMB STRESS TRIGGERING OF 2015 NEPAL GORKHA MW7.9 AND KODARIMW7.3 EARTHQUAKE BASED ON InSAR MEASUREMENTS

According to the structure of the Himalayan orogenic belt, a low-angle antilistric thrust-slip fault model is used to simulate the ramp on the rupture portion of the Main Himalayan Fault. Based on descending Alos -2 and Sentinal -1 data, we invert for the coseismic slip models of the Gorkha earthquake and its largest aftershock, Kodari earthquake. In contrast to the inversion using Alos -2 or Sentinal -1 separately, the joint inversion of both data sets has stronger constraint for the deep slip and can obtain more details in Gorkha earthquake. The rupture depth obtained by joint inversion can be as deep as 24km underground, cutting across the locking line to the transition of locked and the creeping zone. The largest slip is as large as 4.5m appearing 17km underground and the dip angle is between 3°and 10°. Gorkha and Kodari earthquakes have the similar focal mechanisms, both of which are mainly thrusting, and yet some right-lateral slip component in Gorkha earthquake. The inversion results reveal that slip models of the Nepal mainshock and its largest aftershock are complementary in space and the Kodari earthquake occurs in the gaps of slip in Gorkha earthquake. The epicenter of the Kodari earthquake is just right in the transitive zone of the positive and negative Coulomb stress change, where the Coulomb stress change can reach 0.4MPa. We thus argue that Kodari earthquake has been triggered by the Gorkha earthquake.     

Lacustrine Record of 1954 Flood Event on Begnas and Rupa Lake,Central Nepal

In recent decades, there have been discussions and predictions regarding the impact of climate on floods, due to its socioeconomic and environmental consequences. For accurate prediction of future flood events and their impacts, it is crucial to have an improved understanding on past flood events. Lacustrine sediments have been used as a natural archive to study the past flood events. Here, we study the impact of 1954 flood event on the lacustrine environment of Bengas and Rupa Lake in central Nepal based on X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) element analysis, magnetic susceptibility (MS), total organic carbon (TOC) and the biomarker molecular compositions. Results showed that 1954 flood event had significant impacts on the two lakes in terms of detrital input, organic matter deposition and aquatic production. Before the flood event, both two studied lakes had relatively lower catchment erosion rate, lower organic matter deposition and aquatic production. During the flood event, catchment erosion and aquatic production increased in both lakes due to mass transport deposits and the increased nutrition loading attributed to flood event. Following the flood event, Begnas Lake showed the sharp increase in organic matter deposition, whereas in the Rupa Lake organic matter deposition showed minor changes. The difference in organic matter deposition in lakes during flooding event is likely due to detrital material brought and deposited by the flood activity. Overall our results suggest that lacustrine sediments are sensitive to the extreme event and would be an ideal archive for the reconstruction of flood events.