Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence

Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in mountainous terrains. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive power of weights-of-evidence modelling in landslide hazard assessment in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. The modelling was performed within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive a landslide hazard map of the south-western marginal hills of the Kathmandu Valley. Thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, distance to drainage, soil depth, engineering soil type, landuse, geology, distance to road and extreme one-day rainfall) that are related to landslide activity were generated, using field data and GIS techniques, at a scale of 1:10,000. Landslide events of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to assess the Bayesian probability of landslides in each cell unit with respect to the causative factors. To assess the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, it was correlated with a map of landslides triggered by the 2002 extreme rainfall events. The accuracy of the map was evaluated by various techniques, including the area under the curve, success rate and prediction rate. The resulting landslide hazard value calculated from the old landslide data showed a prediction accuracy of > 80%. The analysis suggests that geomorphological and human-related factors play significant roles in determining the probability value, while geological factors play only minor roles. Finally, after the rectification of the landslide hazard values of the new landslides using those of the old landslides, a landslide hazard map with > 88% prediction accuracy was prepared. The methodology appears to have extensive applicability to the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal, with the limitation that the model's performance is contingent on the availability of data from past landslides.     

Microfacies analysis and paleoenvironmental significance of palustrine carbonates in the Thakkhola-Mustang Graben (Nepal Himalaya)

The Thakkhola-Mustang Graben represents the extensional tectonic phase of the Tibetan Plateau uplift and whole Himalayan orogeny. It is situated at the northern side of the Dhaulagiri and Annapurna Ranges and south of the Yarlang Tsangpo Suture Zone. Stratigraphically, the oldest sedimentary units are the Tetang and Thakkhola Formations (Miocene), while the Sammargaon, Marpha and Kaligandaki Formations lying disconformably above these formations represent Plio-Pleistocene units. In this study, different lacustrine carbonates and calcretes were investigated within different lithological units and depositional environments to interpret the palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatological evolution of the area.Geological mapping, construction of columnar sections and carbonate sampling were carried out in the field, and stable oxygen and carbon isotope analyses and thin section analyses were done in the laboratory. Lacustrine facies contained abundant pelletal, charophytic algae, oncolitic algal micritic palustrine limestones with ostracods, and micritic mudstones with root traces. Stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis from the carbonates show a range of δ¹³C values from −0.6‰ to 11.1‰ (V-PDB) and δ¹⁸O values from −13.5‰ to −25‰ (V-PDB).Discontinuous growth of oncolites and spherical pellets (25–40 μm in diameter) in micritic limestone, algal mats and charophyte algae indicate the presence of both shallow and deep water carbonates. Ostracods in dark micritic carbonates indicate quiet and calm water conditions. Microfabrics of the carbonates suggest that they were deposited in a flat and shallow lacustrine environment. The δ¹⁸O values of the investigated limestones of the Thakkhola-Mustang Graben suggest that it attained the current elevation level prior to the east-west extension of the Himalaya.     

Petrography and provenance of Upper Cretaceous – Palaeogene sandstones in the foreland basin system of Central Nepal

Sedimentary deposits of the Cretaceous to Miocene Tansen Group of Lesser Himalayan association in central Nepal record passive-margin sedimentation of the Indian Continent with direct deposition onto eroded Precambrian rocks (Sisne Formation onto Kaligandaki Supergroup rocks), succeeded by the appearance of orogenic detritus as the Indian continent collided with Asia on a N-dipping subduction zone. Rock samples from two field traverses were examined petrographically and through detrital zircon U–Pb dating, one traverse being across the Tansen Group and another across the Higher and Tethyan Himalaya (TH). The Tansen Group depositional ages are well known through fossil assemblages. We examined samples from three units of the Tansen Group (Amile, Bhainskati, and Dumri Formations). The Sedimentary petrographic data and Qt F L and Qm F Lt plots indicate their ‘Quartzose recycled’ nature and classify Tansen sedimentary rocks as ‘recycled orogenic’, suggesting Indian cratonic and Lower Lesser Himalayan (LLH) sediments as the likely source of sediments for the Amile Formation (Am), the TH and the Upper Lesser Himalaya (ULH) as the source for the Bhainskati Formation (Bk), and both the Tethyan and Higher Himalaya (HH) as the major sources for the Dumri Formation (Dm). The Cretaceous–Palaeocene pre-collisional Am is dominated by a broad detrital zircon U–Pb ~1830 Ma age peak with neither Palaeozoic nor Neoproterozoic zircons grains, but hosts a significant proportion (23%) of syndepositional Cretaceous zircons (121–105 Ma) would be contributions from the LLH volcanosedimentary arc, Gangdese batholith (including the Xigaze forearc). The other formations of the Tansen Group are more similar to Tethyan units than to Higher Himalaya Crystalline (HHC). From the analysed samples, there is a lack of distinctive evidence or HH detritus in the Tansen basin. Furthermore, the presence of ~23±1 Ma zircons from the HH unit suggests that they could not have been exposed until the earliest Miocene time.     

Chasing Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) Harvesters in the Himalayas: Harvesting Practice and Its Conservation Implications in Western Nepal

The Chinese caterpillar fungus is famous for its high market value, unusual life history, and significant medicinal uses. It is harvested by very poor communities and sold for an extraordinarily high price. Most of the studies on this species are focused on therapeutic uses, chemical analyses, ecology, and trade. However, harvesting techniques and intensity of the harvests remain undocumented. We document harvesting techniques, trends of harvest, and perceptions of the Chinese caterpillar fungus harvesters in Dolpa, Nepal, based on surveys, focus-group discussions, and direct observations. Along with increasing market value, intensity of the harvest has been increasing. The Chinese caterpillar fungus harvest has now become the second most important livelihood strategy for the local communities, after agriculture. Reported per-capita harvest based on the first day of collection has declined over the last 4 years, apparently because of the decline in the stock and the increasing number of harvesters.     

基于2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后形变探测青藏高原南缘的岩石圈流变结构

基于有限元方法,采用2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后5 a的GPS观测资料约束青藏高原南缘的岩石圈流变结构,利用通过主前缘逆冲断裂带(MFT)间的距离来约束边界位置的垂直边界结构和印度弹性俯冲板片结构探测印度板块和青藏高原板块的边界结构。结果表明,2种结构均能产生与观测数据一致的南-西南水平运动模式,并能较好地解释远场地面位移,但垂直边界结构模型得到的垂直形变偏大,而俯冲板片结构模型能很好地解释中尼边境及以北地区的隆升现象。青藏高原下地壳稳态和瞬态粘滞系数的最优结果分别为1×1018 Pa·s和1×1017 Pa·s。     

基于GNSS观测研究2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后地壳形变特征及其机制

收集及处理尼泊尔境内的GPS连续观测站和中国藏南地区的GPS基准站数据,获得2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后3 a的GPS水平形变场。结果显示,尼泊尔地震的震后形变主要分布于尼泊尔北部及中尼边境区域,且东西方向形变较小,南北方向形变较大,整体继续向南运动,最大震后位移约为10.93 cm。采用孔隙弹性回弹模型计算的理论地表位移远小于GPS观测值,无法解释GPS观测到的震后形变。采用震后余滑模型反演的结果表明,震后余滑主要集中在断层的下倾延伸部分,且空间分布较广,余滑释放的地震矩为1.09×1020 Nm。采用PSGRN/PSCMP程序计算粘弹性引起的理论地表形变结果显示,粘弹性松弛模型不能解释近场GPS观测值,但在远场区域的运动方向与GPS观测值一致。采用粘弹性松弛和震后余滑组合机制模型进行反演,余滑释放的地震矩降为1.08×1020 Nm,且空间分布更加集中。研究结果表明,组合机制模型在保证了模型拟合精度的基础上,反演结果与应力驱动模型反演结果更接近。