Ferrel环流之新解

由于Ferrel环流与中高纬度存在强盛的西风带这一现代大气观测手段所证实的事实相悖,对其是否存在,及其环流形态一直存在着很大的争议.本文利用1998～2003年的NCEP/NCAR（National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research, 美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心）再分析资料（1.0°×1.0°,经/纬度网格）,根据北半球夏季（6～8月）太平洋地区（0°～60°N;160°E～120°W）的三维风场的基本特征,分析了北半球夏季太平洋地区平均经圈环流,特别是Ferrel环流的特征,发现Ferrel环流具有与已往研究不同的性质,并在此基础上提出了Ferrel环流新的概念模型,与过去的经典的环流概念模型相比能较好地描述高低空环流的基本特征,同时在考虑地球自转效应下,能够完满地解释中高纬度西风带的维持.     

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments of a Heavy Rain Process with PENN STATE / NCAR MM5

PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully     

0 Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-Alesund over the Arctic Tundra Area

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station＇s 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region （Ny-Alesund island） where our first arctic expedition station （Huanghe Station） was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-Alesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-Alesund rose in the faster rate （0.68℃/10 a） than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-Alesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison Of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-Alesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a slgnificant difference for summer season.     

美国NCEP/NCAR 40年全球再分析资料及其解码和图形显示软件简介

介绍了美国国家环境预测中心（ＮＣＥＰ）及国家大气研究中心（ＮＣＡＲ）的４０年全球再分析资料,此资料时间长（１９５７～１９９６年）,观测资料丰富,分析方法统一,是目前全球最好的再分析资料。其输出内容共分四大类：观测档案、天气档案、时间序列档案及速视光盘,还有一张特殊的光盘。根据其受观测资料及模式影响程度的不同,其输出产品又可分Ａ,Ｂ,Ｃ,Ｄ四类。用标准二进制格式输出,包括等压面、等熵面及σ面上的资料,有每日４次、每日２次、日平均、月平均的基本要素场和二维、三维的诊断分析场。它对数值模式计算及天气和气候的诊断分析非常有用。     

NCEP/NCAR FNL资料在强对流天气中可信度的初步分析

基于NCEP/NCAR FNL(1°×1°)资料已成为研究强对流天气触发机制、演变等特征的基础资料,有必要分析该资料在强对流天气中的可信度。利用山西岢岚地区2005-2014年共414个强对流天气日的NCEP/NCAR FNL(1°×1°)资料与探空资料,采用偏差、绝对差、相关系数和偏差区间占有率的统计方法,对常用的常规气象要素、诊断量进行统计分析,结果表明:1)在常规气象要素中,温度的可信度最高,而相对湿度的可信度最低,纬向风和经向风的可信度相差不大,均略低于温度的可信度。2)总体上,诊断量的可信度不如常规气象要素的,其中,K指数偏差值在[-5,5]内占总数的57. 25%,沙氏指数SI偏差值在[-3,3]内占总数的75. 12%,对流有效位能CAPE偏差值在[-100,100]内占总数的78. 26%,风暴强度指数SSI偏差值在[-10,10]内占总数的62. 08%。因此,虽然NCEP/NCAR FNL资料中的常规气象要素可信度较高,但与强对流天气存在紧密联系的诊断量却存在较大偏差和绝对差,其可信度较低,若以其进行强对流天气机理的诊断分析,需注意该资料的这种特征。     

N2O增加对大气环境影响的模拟及其与甲烷和平流层水汽影响的比较

本文利用美国国家大气环境中心(NCAR)的二维化学、辐射和动力相互作用的模式(SOCRATES),模拟了大气中N₂O增加对O₃和温度的影响,并从化学、辐射和动力过程讨论了影响原因,此外还与大气甲烷和平流层水汽增加对大气环境的影响进行了对比.分析表明:大气中N₂O浓度增加以后,将通过化学过程引起30 km以上O₃损耗,30~40 km损耗较多;30 km以上降温明显,下平流层中低纬度地区以及对流层O₃增加并有微弱升温;30~40 km附近,北半球中高纬地区O₃减少以及降温幅度都大于南半球.对流层升温主要是N₂O和O₃增加所致,而平流层温度变化主要受O₃控制.北半球中高纬地区动力过程对温度变化的反馈较其它地区明显,这种反馈对平流层中高层北半球中高纬地区温度和O₃的变化都有明显影响.大气中甲烷增加引起的O₃损耗在45 km以上,45 km以下O₃增加.平流层水汽增加会引起40 km以上O₃减少,20~40 km大部分地区O₃增加.N₂O增加造成的O₃损耗正好位于臭氧层附近,其排放对未来O₃层恢复至关重要.N₂O增加引起下平流层15~25 km中低纬度地区有弱的升温,这与其它温室气体增加对该地区温度的影响不同,CO₂,CH₄和H₂O等增加后下平流层通常是降温.     

Statistical guidance on seasonal forecast of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime

This study aimed to develop the seasonal forecast models of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime. Forecast mode was a ternary forecast (below normal, normal, above normal) which was classified based on the mean and the standard deviation of Korean dust days for a period of 30 years (1981-2010). In this study, we used three kinds of monthly data: the Korean dust days observed in South Korea, the National Center for Environmental Prediction in National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data for meteorological factors over source regions of Asian dust, and the large-scale climate indices offered from the Climate Diagnostic Center and Climate Prediction Center in NOAA. Forecast guidance consisted of two components; ordinal logistic regression model to generate trinomial distributions, and conversion algorithm to generate ternary forecast by two thresholds. Forecast guidance was proposed for each month separately and its predictability was evaluated based on skill scores.     

3种再分析资料基本统计量比较

为了评估中国气象部门整理的资料的特色和应用价值,使用统计方法检验了中国资料和NCEP/NCAR、ECMWF再分析资料7月100 hPa、500 hPa位势高度场和1月海平面气压场的气候均值和年际方差的差异显著性,并比较了1月和7月北半球主要大气活动中心面积、强度指数的年际变化差异和相关程度。结果表明：1）ECMWF再分析资料7月100 hPa、500 hPa位势高度场的气候均值都显著小于中国资料,且其历年值分别小于1 660、588 dagpm,与中国资料相比不适合用于研究南亚高压、副热带高压;2）中国资料是由单层等压面图上直接读数得到的,更接近实际观测值,更适宜于诊断单个等压面上的气压系统;3）3种资料冬季蒙古高压、阿留申低压的年际变化一致性要好于夏季南亚高压、副热带高压。     

Reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau

Due to the difficult logistics in the extreme high elevation regions over the Himala-yas and Tibetan Plateau, the observational meteorological data are very few. In 2003, an automatic weather station was deployed at the northeastern saddle of Mt. Nyainqentanglha (NQ) (30°24′44.3″ N, 90°34′13.1″ E, 5850 m a.s.l.), the southern Tibetan Plateau. In 2005, another station was operated at the East Rongbuk Glacier Col (28°01′0.95″ N, 86°57′48.4″ E, 6523 m a.s.l.) of Mt. Qomolangma. Observational data from the two sites have been com-pared with the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Predic-tion/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data has been investigated in the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau region. The reanaly-sis data can capture much of the synoptic-scale variability in temperature and pressure, al-though the reanalysis values are systematically lower than the observation. Furthermore, most of the variability magnitude is, to some degree, underestimated. In addition, the weather event extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed pressure and temperature prominently appears one day ahead of the observational data on Mt. Qomolangma, while on Mt. NQ it occurs basically in the same day.     

高原地区NCEP热通量再分析资料的检验及在夏季降水预测中的应用

青藏高原对周边地区的天气气候有重要影响,为了寻求表征高原热力作用的新的、长时间序列的资料源,本文首先用高原地区NCEP1982～1994年间逐月月平均2.5.× 2.5.Lat./Lon.的地面热通量再分析格点资料对照实测值等进行了检验,然后用EOF分析方法分析了高原地面热源强度的空间分布特征,最后利用再分析资料和降水量实测资料,初步分析了高原地面热源强度对我国夏季降水的影响.主要结果如下:(1)高原地区的地面热通量再分析资料能较好地反映该区热源强度的年及年际变化特征,该再分析资料是可用的;(2)高原地区地面热源强度的分布存在较大的区域性差异;(3)高原西北、东北及西南区早春(2～4月)、夏季(6～8月)的地面热源强度分别与南疆、河西及长江流域的夏季降水存在反相关关系.