舟山群岛册子水道现代潮流沙脊的初步研究

Geopulse甚高分辨率浅地震剖面记录和水深测量结果显示,在舟山群岛册子水道北部东侧发育有一条现代潮流脊,宽度约1~1.2km,研究部分长度超过2km(沙脊两端超出研究海域),脊顶水深50~60m,外翼高20~25m,水深65~85m,内翼高约10m,水深50~70m;脊内层理发育,以向海倾斜为主,表明潮流脊是由岸向海方向堆积发育的。根据地震剖面记录特征和沉积环境,推断潮流脊以细砂和粉砂为主组成,来源于册子水道轴部晚更新世陆相地层的侵蚀物质;由落潮流向东南搬运,再由涨潮流向西北搬运,在潮流脊上沉积而成。潮流脊的发育可能与外钓山岛和舟山本岛在研究海域向西突出有关,造成册子水道显著缩窄、流速加大、底质变粗。     

近10年中国现代天气预报的发展与应用

近10年来,随着数值预报技术的进步,探测手段的日臻完善和丰富,以及高性能计算机快速发展和应用,现代天气预报技术取得了显著的进步,其中快速更新同化分析和预报、集合预报、概率预报以及数字化预报等新技术的应用,促进了中国天气预报业务水平的提高,在中国防灾减灾、保障社会经济发展和人民安康福祉的气象服务中发挥了重要作用。回顾和介绍了近10年中国现代天气预报新技术,主要包括基于中尺度模式的多源资料快速更新同化预报技术,提供灾害性、极端性天气预报的不确定性信息的集合预报和概率预报技术及高时空分辨率气象要素的数字化预报技术,展望未来发展趋势,以期能够对未来天气预报技术发展提供借鉴和参考。     

江苏东部沿海五大地学景观

赣榆秦山岛“神路”、连云港云台山海蚀洞、北北西向淤泥质断层海岸线、辐射状沙洲和东台谅港“两分水”以及海门东灶蛎蚜山牡蛎礁是江苏东部沿海五大地学景观,对它们的研究和开发具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。     

青藏高原近代气温变化趋势及突变分析

利用青藏高原84个气象站建站至2001年的月平均气温资料,分析了40年来气温变化的时空分布特征及趋势,揭示了高原大部分地区平均气温和最高、最低气温普遍升高,最低气温上升速率是最高气温的1倍～3倍,气温日较差显著减小;青藏高原各区的气温突变多发生在20世纪80年代,大部分地区早于北半球1988年的气温突变,平均气温和最高、最低气温的突变在各区都有发生,平均气温突变开始于柴达木盆地(1973年),最高、最低气温及气温日较差(DTR)分别开始于高原东部、柴达木盆地和高原南部等地;不同季节的突变随时间地点而有所变化。     

中卫—同心活动断裂带现代构造应力分布特征及地震破裂危险区判定

采用弹性模型对中卫—同心活动断裂带在区域现代构造应力场作用下的应力分布特征进行数值模拟,并在此基础上应用岩石破裂危险度KR及断层滑动危险系数KF两个判别指标对该断裂带未来地震破裂危险区进行判定。结果显示该活动断裂带上的应力分布具有明显的分段性,大致以红谷梁和同心为界分为三个区段。地震破裂危险区段主要位于红观观至红谷梁东区段,在地震发生时起始破裂区位于中卫南—碱沟,破裂向两侧扩展,向东很快衰减,而向西破裂扩展范围较大,可达红观观。     

The importance of model choice on pH inferences from scaled chrysophyte assemblages in North America

The selection of a reliable inference model is a crucial step in developing ecologically sound reconstructions of environmental variables in the past. We compared intra- and inter-regional regression-based models, and an inter-regional Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) model in their ability to infer lakewater pH from scaled chrysophyte assemblages. The performance of each model was assessed by examining cross-validated coefficients of determination and prediction errors, and through reconstructing the pH of 50 modern and fossil samples in south-central Ontario, Canada. Using the intra- and inter-regional data sets, we found little difference in the ability of the regression-based models to infer present-day pH. Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression, Weighted Averaging (WA), and Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares (WA-PLS) inference models showed similar values for jack-knifed coefficients of determination (r² _jack), root mean squared errors of prediction (RMSEP_jack), and mean and maximum biases. Based on an analogue matching approach, the inferred values from 48 fossil sediment samples suggested that the intra-regional model did not provide reliable reconstructions for approximately half of the fossil samples. However, inferences from the inter-regional MAT and regression-based models were found to have appropriate analogues and thus considered to be more reliable.     

"震情三分律"和"对称填补"模式与当代数学理论的某些相似性

根据邢台直接前震N-t图(与M-t图完全一致)和5次MS≥6.0地震活动时序相关性,采用“震情三分律”方法可分别得到大震前82 d,59 d的短期预测和30 h的临震预测;与此同时,若条件许可再采用“对称填补”方法又可作出强震到来前的“活动范围”预测区。指出,此二者都与当代数学理论有某些相似的特性。     

Post-Glacial climatic change on Boothia Peninsula, Nunavut, Canada

A high temporal resolution pollen diagram from a lake in the mid-Arctic region of the Boothia Peninsula, Nunavut, Canada, documents the history of the regional vegetation and climate for the past 7200 yr. Major tundra pollen taxa in the core include Cyperaceae and Salix, with Cyperaceae comprising over 50% of the pollen in the early and late Holocene. Tree pollen, transported from far to the south, comprised a large percentage of the pollen sum, with Pinus accounting for 30% of the pollen in some levels of the core. Pollen percentages and concentrations of taxa typical of the mid-Arctic were highest in the mid-Holocene, corresponding to warm conditions. Decreasing pollen concentrations indicate cooling temperatures, with more rapid decreases occurring around 4200, 3800-3400, and 2500 cal yr BP. Pollen percentages of Salix, Cyperaceae, and Artemisia increased in the past 35 yr in response to global warming. Reconstructions of July temperature using the modern analog technique showed that the mid-Holocene (5800-2800 cal yr BP) was approximately 1 °C higher than during the past 1000 yr.     

城市环境容量集成模型研究

本文针对我国城市化形势和信息时代的信息集成需求,分析了城市化集成模型的内涵。在研究城市化对生态环境各种影响的基础上,提出了基于巨量数据的子模型体系。阐述了现代信息技术条件下城市化集成模型的主要特点。     

Hydrogen isotope ratios of individual lipids in lake sediments as novel tracers of climatic and environmental change: a surface sediment test

We determined hydrogen isotope ratios of modern lake-waters and individual lipids from surface sediments of 36 lakes in the eastern North America. The lakes selected lie on two transects (south–north transect from Florida to Ontario and east–west transect from Wisconsin to South Dakota) and encompass large temperature and moisture gradients, and a wide range of lake water δD values (>100‰). The study allows a rigorous test of the applicability of using δD values of sedimentary lipids as paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental proxies. We examined a range of lipids including C₁₇ n-alkane, straight chain fatty acids, phytol and sterols in both free extracts and ester-bound fractions in the solvent extracted sediments. Useful isotopic indicators are expected to show a linear correlation and constant fractionation factor between their δD values in surface sediments and modern lake water. Our results demonstrate that several lipid compounds, free and ester-bound palmitic acid (16:0), C₁₇ n-alkane, and phytol are useful candidates for paleoclimate reconstructions, in addition to two sterols that have been suggested previously (. Compound-specific D/H ratios of lipid biomarkers from sediments as a proxy for environmental and climatic conditons. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 65: 213–222). Authigenic or biogenic carbonate in sediments is conventional material for paleoclimatic study using ocean and lake sediments. However, because majority of lake sediments do not contain suitable carbonate materials for isotopic study, hydrogen isotope ratios of these lipids provide invaluable new sources of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental information.