直剪条件下非贯通节理岩体岩桥力学性质弱化机制及贯通模型初步研究

通过非贯通节理岩体直剪试验的力学特点和理论分析,修正了Lajtai岩桥张拉破坏理论。通过非贯通节理岩体直剪试验中岩桥的应力状态,提出岩桥内部的张拉破坏使岩桥力学性质发生弱化,并进一步分析研究了力学性质可能弱化的区域。分析非贯通节理岩体扩展贯通过程,提出了非贯通节理岩体的贯通破坏模式。通过非贯通节理岩体直剪试验初步验证了修正的岩桥张拉破坏理论和贯通破坏模式。     

长江中下游-南黄海地震带地震趋势研究

运用灰色理论对长江中下游－南黄海地震带从1971年开始的20世纪第2个地震活跃幕的结束时间进行了研究。结果表明，该次地震活跃幕的结束时间大约在2019年，还运用灰色理论对该地震带未来的地震形势进行了预测。所得结果可供华东地区地震大形势分析和地震的中期预报参考。     

地震拓扑预测

本文对地震参数建立了地震拓扑空间并把灰色系统理论中的拓扑预测方法引入地震预测之中,研究地震长趋势的预测问题。     

基于分数阶时间导数的黏弹性衰减VTI介质中平面波传播

目前在地震勘探频带范围内通常假设品质因子Q与频率无关,且呈衰减各向同性.事实上,相比较速度各向异性,介质的衰减各向异性同样不可忽视.本文将衰减各向异性和速度各向异性二者与常Q模型相结合,建立了黏弹性衰减VTI介质模型,并基于分数阶时间导数理论,给出了对应的本构关系和波动方程.利用均匀平面波分析和Poynting定理,推导出准压缩波qP、准剪切波qSV和纯剪切波SH的复速度、相速度、能量速度以及品质因子的解析表达式.对模型的正确性进行了数值验证,并分析了qP,qSV和SH波在介质中的传播特性.数值试验结果表明：本模型能够实现理想的恒定Q行为,表现了品质因子和速度的各向异性特征,显示出黏弹性增强将导致能量速度和相速度的频散曲线变化剧烈;速度和衰减各向异性参数与传播角度之间的耦合效应对qP,qSV和SH波的速度和能量影响明显;qP,qSV和SH波的频散曲线和波前面随着衰减各向异性强度的改变发生显著变化,其中耦合在一起的qP和qSV波变化趋势相同,而SH波与它们呈现相反的变化规律.本研究为从常Q模型角度分析地震波在衰减各向异性黏弹性介质中的传播特征奠定了理论基础.

     

钻孔灌注桩后压浆作用机理与应用

通过对桩侧和桩底后压浆,可大幅度提高钻孔灌注桩单桩承载力.应用桩-土理论分析了后压浆中浆液对土体及桩体的作用,并从分析影响桩基承载力的因素出发,研究了后压浆的作用机理.在渗透率小的地层中后压浆以压密注浆为主,在渗透率大的地层中后压浆以渗透注浆为主.为避免过分压裂土层,在压浆过程中应控制灌浆压力.压浆量是影响后压浆质量和提高单桩承载力的关键因素之一.     

A novel hybrid approach of Bayesian Logistic Regression and its ensembles for landslide susceptibility assessment

Abstract

A novel artificial intelligence approach of Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) and its ensembles [Random Subspace (RS), Adaboost (AB), Multiboost (MB) and Bagging] was introduced for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Kamyaran city in Kurdistan Province, Iran. A spatial database was generated which includes a total of 60 landslide locations and a set of conditioning factors tested by the Information Gain Ratio technique. Performance of these models was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and statistical index-based methods. Results showed that the hybrid ensemble models could significantly improve the performance of the base classifier of BLR (AUROC?=?0.930). However, RS model (AUROC?=?0.975) had the highest performance in comparison to other landslide ensemble models, followed by Bagging (AUROC?=?0.972), MB (AUROC?=?0.970) and AB (AUROC?=?0.957) models, respectively.     

灰色关联法在青海明长城单体建筑病害与危险性评价中的应用

土遗址保护是目前国内外文物保护研究的热点问题,但关于土遗址的病害量化,各病害间的关联程度以及土遗址的危险性评价却少有研究。通过对青海省湟中明长城的17个单体建筑-烽火台的现场调查,采用灰色关联理论分析坍塌体积、掏蚀体积、冲沟体积、裂隙长度、洞穴体积、片状剥离面积、生物破坏面积7个影响因子的权重及关联性,并建立土遗址单体的危险性评价模型进而对其进行危险性评价,最终确定各单体建筑的危险程度。     

Gamma-ray probe of cosmic ray pressure in galaxy clusters and cosmological implications

Cosmic rays produced in cluster accretion and merger shocks provide pressure to the intracluster medium (ICM) and affect the mass estimates of galaxy clusters. Although direct evidence for cosmic ray ions in the ICM is still lacking, they produce γ-ray emission through the decay of neutral pions produced in their collisions with ICM nucleons. We investigate the capability of the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope ( GLAST ) and imaging atmospheric Čerenkov telescopes (IACTs) for constraining the cosmic ray pressure contribution to the ICM. We show that GLAST can be used to place stringent upper limits, a few per cent for individual nearby rich clusters, on the ratio of pressures of the cosmic rays and thermal gas. We further show that it is possible to place tight (≲10 per cent) constraints for distant  ( z ≲ 0.25)  clusters in the case of hard spectrum, by stacking signals from samples of known clusters. The GLAST limits could be made more precise with the constraint on the cosmic ray spectrum potentially provided by IACTs. Future γ-ray observations of clusters can constrain the evolution of cosmic ray energy density, which would have important implications for cosmological tests with upcoming X-ray and Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect cluster surveys.     

Prompt optical emission and synchrotron self-absorption constraints on emission site of GRBs

We constrain the distance of the gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission site from the explosion centre R , by determining the location of the electron's self-absorption frequency in the GRB prompt optical-to-X/γ-ray spectral energy distribution, assuming that the optical and the γ-ray emissions are among the same synchrotron radiation continuum of a group of hot electrons. All possible spectral regimes are considered in our analysis. The method has only two assumed parameters, namely the bulk Lorentz factor of the emitting source Γ and the magnetic field strength B in the emission region (with a weak dependence). We identify a small sample of four bursts that satisfy the following three criteria: (1) they all have simultaneous optical and γ-ray detections in multiple observational time intervals, (2) they all show temporal correlations between the optical and γ-ray light curves and (3) the optical emission is consistent with belonging to the same spectral component as the γ-ray emission. For all the time intervals of these four bursts, it is inferred that   R ≥ 10¹⁴  (Γ/300)^3/4 ( B /10⁵ G)^1/4  cm. For a small fraction of the sample, the constraint can be pinned down to   R ≈ 10¹⁴–10¹⁵ cm  for  Γ∼ 300  . For a second sample of bursts with prompt optical non-detections, only upper limits on R can be obtained. We find no inconsistency between the R -constraints for this non-detection sample and those for the detection sample.