DOES WIND STRESS DEPEND ON SEA-STATE OR NOT? – A STATISTICAL ERROR ANALYSIS OF HEXMAX DATA

There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up.     

Multiresolution Flux Decomposition

Geophysical variables are orthogonally decomposed by averaging timeseries using different averaging lengths, referred to as a (Haar)multiresolution decomposition. This simple and economic decomposition isassociated with cospectra that formally satisfy Reynolds averaging rules foreach averaging length. The multiresolution decomposition provides a naturalestimate of the random error in estimating a mean turbulent flux. The Fourierand multiresolution decompositions are compared using aircraft data fromBOREAS.     

用卡尔曼滤波预报南海热带气旋路径的试验

利用卡尔曼滤波方法预报南海热带气旋路径，发现采用卡尔曼滤波可以大大地降低预报误差，提高预测模型的预报能力。     

古洪水流量的误差计算

古洪水研究已在大型工程和长江三峡，黄河小浪底等的设计洪水中得到动用取得了令人虚心成功，但古洪水流量的推求与实测量的计算往往有大的差别，根据随机误差的传播给出了一般情况下的古洪不流量推误差计算公式，以小流底２３６０ａＢＰ古洪水注同误差的计算为例，对最终计算出的古洪水流量成果给出了一个误差范围。     

水库流域入库洪水预报误差分析

由于受水库枢纽工程的影响，使得反推计算的入库流量本身就存在较大的误差，从而增加了入库洪水预报模型研制的难度，影响了这时预报精度的考核。通过对全国诸多水电厂水库流域实时洪水预报的实践，对其入库洪水预报中存在的误差原因及解决方法进行了科学的分析和阐述，以指导实时预报。     

氯对测定化合水的影响及其校正研究

用差热和热（失）重法、ｐＨ值检验、离子色谱等分析方法考察和证实了Ｃｌ－对平菲尔特管重量法测定化合水（Ｈ２Ｏ＋）的干扰，研究其影响规律，提出用系数校正方法可获得Ｈ２Ｏ＋的准确结果。方法用于含氯深海沉积物和大洋多金属结核标准物质中Ｈ２Ｏ＋的定值分析，取得满意结果     

西南极菲尔德斯GPS形变网监测数据的误差特性分析与处理

本文对西南极菲尔德斯形变网ＧＰＳ监测数据的误差特性进行分析，利用数理统计原理检验了数据中的系统误差，提出了削弱这类系统误差的方法。该方法有３个特点：１．以监测网中两个稳定点为基准；２．对监测网数据进行尺度因子改正与坐标变换迭代计算；３．归算后监测网点位结构不变。经改化处理后的数据，基本上消除了系统误差的影响。     

灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用

基于灰色系统的建模理论，利用河西地区有关河流的径流观测资料，建立了一个ＧＭ（１，１）残差序列周期修正径流预测模型，并用于春旱缺水期３～６月河流来水量的长期预报，经生产部门验证，准确率在８０％以上     

用非线性遗传反演方法进行自动静校正

静校正处理是消除近地层影响的一个重要地震资料数字处理方法，在近地表层纵，横向变化复杂，静校正量变化较大的地区，常规静校正方法和线性反演方法均不能解决问题，遗传算法是近年发展起来的一种模拟生物生化过程的较先进的非线性反演方法，对用遗传算法进行静校正的若干问题进行了讨论，说明它是可以解决表层情况复杂地区静校正问题的一个有效方法。     

评价储层含油性的热解参数校正方法及其应用

评价储层含油性时，热解参数Ｓ１＋Ｓ２是一项有效参数。其中Ｓ２相对稳定，Ｓ１则随样品类别或露置时间的不同而发生变化。岩心样品的随钻解分析值比较接近真实，岩屑和井壁取心样品的Ｓ１会明显损失。而目前多数探井心进尺少，大多为岩屑录井。