A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level

This article studies how burglars select a house to burglarize. We draw on the rational choice perspective to investigate how burglars select a target by relying on house-related attributes to optimize a combination of perceived rewards, efforts and risk. It extends current applications of the discrete spatial choice framework to burglary target selection by adopting the house as the spatial unit of analysis and studies burglars' target selection process in a larger and more diverse study area than that of earlier studies. Using data on 650 residential burglaries and on approximately 500,000 residential properties in the Belgian province East Flanders, we consider a discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection to establish which house-related attributes influence burglars' target selection process. Our findings demonstrate that terraced houses, houses without a garage, houses that have not been outfitted with a central heating and/or air-conditioning system and houses nearby burglars' residences are more likely to be selected. Overall, our analysis suggests that burglars rely on effort-related attributes to distinguish between targets while higher perceived rewards actually decrease the odds of a house being burglarized. Risk-related attributes are unimportant for burglars' target choice.     

光子计数资料处理方法的比较

本文通过对天体测量仪器光子计数模拟资料的处理,比较了13种不同的平滑模型和两种定心算法对最终精度的影响;提出了利用频率域滤波和修正矩方法相结合的最佳处理方法;并对比较结果进行了多方面的讨论。     

A geographic perspective on intra-urban racial/ethnic diversity, segregation, and clustering in Knoxville, Tennessee: 1990-2000

Racial/ethnic diversity in the United States has increased significantly in recent decades, with minority groups now accounting for almost one-third of the total population. At the same time, growing diversity has spread into rural and non-metropolitan areas. Research suggests that changing diversity in the ‘New South’ has seen growth of non-Black communities. The question, however, is the degree to which increasing diversity equates with increasing intermixing or, alternatively, whether racial/ethnic clusters retain their prominence. This paper examines the geographic manifestations of growing racial/ethnic diversity within intra-urban context, using census-tracts as scale of analysis in the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) of Knoxville in Tennessee. The statistics used for analyzing intra-urban variations include Diversity Score, Theil Entropy Index, and Location Quotient. Tract and Block-group data for White, Black, American Indian, Asian, All Others and Hispanic are used for computing these indices. This paper concludes that diversity has increased during 1990-2000, and has dispersed into suburban counties. However, segregation and clustering for certain minority groups has also increased, in particular African-Americans still remain the most segregated and most clustered community confined to specific geographic locations. This research holds significance as local economic development patterns are very much guided by the geographic variability of human and social capital. Applied research can suggest avenues for growth and can help rebuild local communities. This paper will also contribute to literature focusing on methodological challenges in measuring diversity and its geographic manifestations.     

基于全球闪电定位网的江淮闪电定位网探测效率分析：以台风“利奇马”为例

基于全球闪电定位网(World Wide Lightning Location Network,WWLLN)获取的闪电定位资料对江淮闪电定位网(Jianghuai Area Sferic Array,JASA)在内陆及近海区域的闪电实时探测性能进行评估。通过对2019年第9号超强台风“利奇马”期间产生的闪电活动进行对比分析,发现JASA和WWLLN对台风闪电的径向分布、时间变化和空间变化有较好的一致性,绝大部分闪电发生在云顶亮温小于220 K区域;在台风发展阶段,内核区闪电活动较为频繁,在台风成熟和消亡阶段时,闪电主要分布外雨带,内核区的闪电活动少但集中。在探测效率方面,JASA对江淮区域实时定位到的闪电数远多于WWLLN,相对探测效率和绝对探测效率分别为69.12%和92.51%。而在海洋区域(114～130°E,20～24°N和123～130°E,24～32°N),由于受到JASA站点位置分布的限制,闪电实时定位数略少于WWLLN,其相对探测效率和绝对探测效率分别为32.67%和52.26%。研究结果表明了JASA对内陆及近海区域雷暴具备较强的捕获能力,为实时监测台风期间强对流闪电...     

基于ArcGIS的多准则地震应急避难所选址规划研究

地震是极其严重的自然灾害,有可能造成重大伤亡和经济损失。由于城市中人口高度聚集,地震发生时,需将受灾居民快速疏散至应急避难所,因此,应急避难所选址的合理性至关重要。本文提出1种可用于解决选址问题的多准则选址模型,并提出了求解模型的方法。该方法分为3个步骤,首先选择候选应急避难所,其次分析候选避难所的服务范围,最后确定应急避难所的位置。通过案例研究,论证了多准则选址模型在地震应急避难所规划中的有效性。     

山西地震台网“九五”与“十五”期间地震定位方法对比分析

选取山西地震台网2007年1月至2008年6月产出的数据,运用“十五”和“九五”两种定位系统的的定位软件进行处理,对比定位参数之间的差异。初步认为,山西台网“十五”期间的定位结果是可信的,与“九五”的定位结果差异不大。JOPENS系统的单纯型法是比较优的定位方法,适用于网内、网缘和网外的近震;HYP2000法适用于网内近震。     

福建省制造业内部产业结构评价与演变趋势

采用Gibbs-Mirtin 多样化指数和区位熵、产值贡献率,对福建省2005―2013 年20 个制造业行业面板数据进行了测算,并从产业部门多样化和优势产业专业化2 个角度对福建省制造业产业结构特点及演变规律进行了分析。研究表明：福建省制造业产业多样化水平逐年提升,全省产业朝多部门均衡发展;各个制造业专业化发展水平存在差异,化学纤维制造业、通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等行业专业化水平高,行业优势明显;全省20 个制造业总体产业优势不明显,研究时段内区位熵始终≥1 的行业仅占35%,对全省20 个制造业产值贡献达46.71%;非金属矿物制品业及农副食品加工业等新的优势产业及潜力产业涌现,关联产业优势程度成对上升,产业专业化发展形势良好。     

Location offarm woodlands in Denmark: a quantification of the results of the scheme for field afforestation in Ribe and Vejle counties

The article analyses the results of the scheme for field afforestation (EU-regulation 2080/92) in Denmark. The purpose is twofold, firstly to document the afforestation on arable land taking place both within the scheme and outside the scheme for field afforestation. The former is documented in Ribe and Vejle counties whereas the latter is documented in three smaller areas: Varde, Vorbasse, and Vejle. Secondly, the article argues that in order to evaluate the afforestation not only the location within designated areas hut also the spatial parameters and configuration of new woodlands must be considered. Two methods -'forest-pictures' and ‘gradient-pictures’-are presented and applied in order to quantify the spatial configuration of new woodlands in the landscape.     

国家地震速报备份系统的部署与运行

国家地震速报备份系统是由中国地震局出资,在广东省地震台网中心建设的一套全自动地震速报系统.本文介绍了国家地震速报备份系统的职责、系统架构、主要功能模块、系统工作原理、部署情况与台网规模,分析了系统2009-2010年运行两年来的工作情况,并对系统自动产出的地震定位结果进行初步的统计与比较,对系统运行的总体效果给予了初步...     

2005年新疆克孜尔震群的重新定位

用双差地震定位法对2005年9月23日克孜尔震群进行重新定位。 从平面上, 重新定位地震集中分布在一个长约14.5 km, 宽约 9.0 km的长方形内, 其长轴为N30°W向, 与克孜尔断裂近乎垂直。 从震源深度来看, 重新定位地震的震源深度全部分布在21 km以内, 集中分布在10~19 km, 平均深度为13.6 km; 震群中绝大部分小震发生在沉积层内, 而震级较大地震基本发生在结晶地壳的上地壳内。 其剖面图显示, 这次震群是从结晶地壳开始沿着N30°W方向向上破裂至沉积层。 根据震区附近断裂性质和该区历史小震震中分布分析认为, 克孜尔水库库区附近可能存在两条共轭断裂, 右翼断裂可能是这次震群的发震构造。