“黄河流域水资源演化规律与可再生性维持机理”研究进展

黄河是中国第二条大河,流域面积80万km2,它曾是中华民族文化的摇篮。当前在中国西部大开发中具有举足轻重的重要战略地位。但是黄河流域地处中国的半干旱与半湿润地带,流域的水资源量先天不足,流域内的人均水资源占有量很少,相当全国人均水资源占有量的1/3。由于气候的暖干变化与人类活动的影响,过去30年来,黄河下游与其主要支流频繁地发生了断流,这种发展的征兆不仅加剧了脆弱的水资源供应与需求的平衡,而且给流域上、中、下游原有生态系统与环境带来更大的冲击。黄河的治理终归是涉及国家稳定和国家安全的大事。因此,1999年科技部在“国家重点基础研究发展规划”中立项,启动了5年研究项目“黄河流域水资源演化规律与可再生性维持机理”。作者作为项目的首席科学家根据项目各课题已发表的近900篇论文与几十部专著等大量成果,简要概括了黄河水资源的基础性、技术性和应用性研究等三大方面的进展。     

Effect of spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties on bearing capacity of strip footing

Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties is presented and applied to study the bearing capacity of spatially random soil with different autocorrelation distances in the vertical and horizontal directions. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two‐dimensional cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen–Loève expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function, an autocorrelation function, and cross‐correlation coefficients. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses was performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to geotechnical problems and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Positive effect of porphyrans on the lifespan and vitality of Drosophila melanogaster

The effects of degraded porphyran (P1) and natural porphyran (P) on the lifespan and vitality of Drosophila melanogaster are studied. The porphyrans, added daily to the food medium at 0.2% and 1% concentrations, can significantly increase the lifespan in average of 55.79 and 58.23 d in 0.2% P1 diet females and 1% P1 diet males, extending by 12.29% and 8.60% over the corresponding controls, respectively. The effects of porphyrans on D. melanogaster in heat-stress condition were also examined, and found a remarkable increase in survival time. The results which are consistently associated with the use of porphyrans are related to their free radical scavenger action. Considerable increase in vitality demonstrated that vitalities of middle-aged fly (assessed by measuring their mating capacity) was observed after porphyrans addition. Therefore, porphyrans are effective in reducing the rate of aging, and P1 in low molecular weight is better than natural P.     

小江断裂带地下流体记震能力分析

收集并整理了云南地区小江断裂带附近十口流体观测井对印度尼西亚苏门答腊4次8级以上地震的响应资料．并对各观测井的记震能力及其流体测项间的响应协调性进行了统计分析。分析结果显示：物理量观测项的记震能力强于化学量观测项,水位测项的记震能力强于水温测项：小江断裂带南端各观测点的记震能力强于中部及北端各观测点：水位的同震响应形态多表现为震时振荡,而水温则多表现为震时脉冲下降。最后分析了记震协调性较好的高大、弥勒和嵩明三井的记震特征。     

Bearing capacity of unsaturated expansive soils

It is difficult to determine the bearing capacity of a foundation in unsaturated expansive soil, although this is most important. The bearing capacity of unsaturated expansive soil is related to the drying and wetting environment. Swelling pressure occurs when the soil volume change is constrained as an expansive soil is inundated. The expansive lateral pressure, induced by the swelling pressure is similar to the passive earth pressure. By considering the effect of the expansive lateral pressure in Terzaghi's bearing capacity formula, the bearing capacity of unsaturated expansive soil is derived. Because it is very difficult to measure suction in situ, the bearing capacity is expressed using the expansive lateral pressure offers a feasible approach to calculate the bearing capacity of a foundation in unsaturated expansive soil, when suction is not measured. Plate load tests to measure the bearing capacity in situ were performed for the foundation in natural soil and saturated soil immersed by water. The verification of the bearing capacity formulae presented in this paper is conducted by comparing the predicted results with the results of the plate load tests on unsaturated expansive soils in Handan and Bingxia, China.     

国土空间管控的方法与途径

国土空间管控是对国土空间各类开发保护活动的科学谋划与管理安排,是进行国土空间宏观调控和微观管理的重要政策工具。探讨以地域功能和资源环境承载力为科学基点的国土空间管控体系框架,并以福建省和贵州省六盘水市为例,解析“三区三线”协同划定和国土开发强度并测算两个国土空间管控中技术难点的解决方法,在此基础上,提出以功能管控和参数管控为核心的多尺度、多时序国土空间管控途径。研究发现：① 功能管控以主体功能区划和“三区三线”划定方案为基础,按照四类主体功能定位、三类空间（生态、农业和城镇空间）、六类分区（生态保护红线及一般生态区、永久基本农田及一般农业区、城镇开发边界及城镇预留区）以及N类建设和非建设类用途分层级实施;② 参数管控则以国土开发强度为关键目标参数,实施基于总量-目标和过程-增幅双控的阈值管控,以及基于上限和下限双控的分类型管控途径,旨在实现各类空间内和区域整体的生产、生活、生态“三生”结构均衡协调,促进形成高质量、可持续的国土空间开发保护格局。     

青岛奥运水域主要污染物环境容量的预测

通过对青岛奥运水域现场调查和资料分析,确定了奥运水域污染物的主要来源和主要污染物,然后在潮流模拟的基础上,利用物质输运方程数值模拟了2000~2003年污染物浓度的空间分布,其结果与现状调查基本吻合。最后再利用该输运方程,预测了奥运帆船水域的化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮(NH4 -N)、总磷(TP)的环境容量(中潮时分别为:69.948 t/d,7.46 t/d,0.5455 t/d),为奥运水域的目标管理提供科学依据。     

The acid neutralizing capacity （ANC） of South Africa＇s freshwater ecosystems

Acidification is considered the most important one of the primary chemical stress factors that impact on freshwater ecosystems. In unpolluted freshwater systems, the primary controls on the degree of acidification are factors such as the geological substrate of the catchment area, the presence of organic acids secreted by vegetation in the river system, and equilibrium exchange of carbon dioxide with the atmosphere. Anthropogenic factors that can impact on the degree of acidification of freshwater systems include agricultural, mining and industrial activities, either through direct runoff into river systems or through deposition of atmospheric pollutants from these sources. The capacity factors alkalinity and acidity, which represent the acid- and base-neutralizing capacity （ANC and BCN） of an aqueous system, have been used as more reliable measures of the acidic character of freshwater systems than pH. Unlike pH, ANC and BNC are not affected by parameters such as temperature and pressure. Therefore, ANC has been employed as a predictor of biological status in critical load assessments. Freshwater systems with ANC＇s eq/L isμeq/L are considered sensitive to acidification, ANC=0 μbelow 150 commonly used as the predictor for fish species such as trout in lakes, and an eq/L as more realistic for streams. Acid-neutralizing capacity μANC value of 40 （ANC） can be determined by titration with a strong acid to a preselected equivalence point. Alternatively, it can be calculated as the difference between base cations （[BC]） and strong acid anions （[SAA]）： ANC=[BC]- [SAA]=[Ca^2＋]＋[Mg^2＋]＋[Na^＋]＋[K^＋]-[SO4^2-]-[NO3^-]-[Cl^-] To date, there has been no attempt to establish the ANC of South Africa＇s freshwater ecosystems or variability therein, despite the fact that long-term water quality monitoring data exist for all the parameters needed to calculate it according to the above equations. As a result, the relationship between the acid neutralizing capacity of freshwater ecosystems in South Africa and biodiversity factors, such as fish status, is unknown. Results of the first comprehensive （country-wide scale） evaluation of the acid neutralizing capacity of river systems in South Africa will be presented. Long-term monitoring data obtained from the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry （DWAF） from most of South Africa＇s river systems were used to establish geographic and temporal variabilities in ANC. The results show that the Berg and Breede River systems are most susceptible to acidification, and that geological substrate appears to explain most of the geographic variabilities observed.     

1961—2010年中国气候生产潜力时空格局变化及其潜在可承载人口分析

以气温、降水格点数据为基础,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了中国气候生产潜力(CPP),并从气候的角度估算了耕地上气候资源潜在可承载的人口数,以便增强了解气候变化的影响及气候资源最大人口支撑能力。结果表明:1961—2010年中国CPP总体呈突变性增加趋势,1987年为突变点,年最低、最高及平均值分别为689. 18、814. 56和744. 05 g·m^-2·a^-1。空间上呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布,其中高值区主要分布在华南大部,最高值达2103. 56 g·m^-2·a^-1;低值区主要分布在西、北部地区,最低值为39. 28 g·m^-2·a^-1。2001—2010年中国大部分地区CPP年平均值相对于1961—2010年多年平均值变化幅度不大,变化比例高的地区基本上分布于中国西、北部,其中增加的区域达82%,主要分布在华东地区、新疆西部、西藏北部及青海大部,远大于缩减的区域(17%)。1995—2010年,基于公里网格的耕地气候潜在可承载人口为46—2180人·km^-2,全国平均值最低的年份为1130人·km^-2,对应的实际人口为0—49729人·km^-2,全国平均值均不高于137人·km^-2;全国实际总人口为11. 43—13. 04亿,耕地气候潜在可承载总人口为19. 72—20. 22亿,前后比值为58%—65%。这表明,中国耕地生产力未达到气候生产潜力,尚有一定的开发潜力;实际人口在中国大部分地区均没有超出气候资源潜在可承载的最大人口,然而在少数省市(如生态环境脆弱的青海省以及经济发达的大城市及沿海地区)已超出。     

基于AHP的新疆土地利用综合承载力研究

论文构建了一套适合区域土地承载力综合评价指标体系，并运用层次分析法确定各个指标的权重，求出每个地区的土地利用承载力综合得分并将该区土地承载力划分为4种类型区，即：低承载力区（和田地区、喀什地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州）、中等承载力区（博州、伊犁州直属、阿克苏地区、哈密地区、吐鲁番地区、阿勒泰地区）、较高承载力区（昌吉州、巴州、塔城地区）、高承载力（乌鲁木齐、克拉玛依）。宏观上把握每个地区的土地利用综合承载力，为当地土地利用政策制定，提供一定的指导意义。