线性震中迁移交汇法和强震位置预报机理讨论

由短期、长距离、线性震中迁移线交汇得到的稳定交汇区进行强震地点预报方法称为线性震中迁移交汇法。存在由源向场的迁移、由场向源的迁移及过源迁移３种多类型。这３种迁移的总特征是在未来震源区和其附近形成稳定的交汇区。着重讨论“交汇法”的物理基础,并用实例进行证明。     

Spatial and Temporal Features and Trend of Different Level Heat Waves Over China

Heat wave has become a severe problem over China in recent year. Based on daily air temperature data from 719 meteorological stations in China in the period of 1961-2012, the heat wave events were classified into three levels by duration: weak HW, medium heat wave and strong heat wave. This paper describes the spatial and temporal characteristics among three levels of heat wave over China during the period 1961-2013. The results showed that the number of hot days displayed a weakening trend from the 1960s to the early 1990s, followed by a strengthening trend from the late 1990s up to now. Long-term linear trends in hot days had significant regional differences, for instance, the number of hot days in southwest and southern China growing sharply than other regions; three levels heat wave occurred in different regions that weak heat wave usually occurred in the northwest and middle part of China while strong heat wave mainly happened in the southern part of China. When it came to the first day of heat wave, weak heat wave occurred earliest in China, and it happened around July 3rd while medium heat wave and strong heat wave always started on July 13th and July 14th, respectively. In general, the earliest heat wave was always found in southwest China while the last ones usually occurred in southern part and southwest China. Increasing trend of three levels heat wave were found in the entire country, except for southwest China. The trend of the last day of heat waves showed significant difference between northern and southern part of China. The last day of weak and medium heat wave occurred later in the south China, while strong heat wave happened earlier in north China.     

瓜什则盆地的地应力场分析与模拟

基于水压致裂法地应力测试的原理,系统性研究分析了瓜什则盆地区域内的地应力场特征,这为成宁铁路控制性工程甘青特长隧道的选线设计提供了重要的参考依据。首先,根据区域内钻孔的地应力测试结果,采用有限元方法进行了区域地应力场的三维数值模拟,确定了该区域内的水平应力大于垂直应力的基本特征;其次,根据多个水平构造应力场的水平切片,分析了水平构造应力场随深度的变化,说明了该区域内水平构造应力场具有由东北向西南挤压的应力变化特征;然后,根据区域岩体抗拉强度分布,发现该区域内存在一个低抗拉强度带,它的地层结构相对较复杂,且其工程地质特征主要表现为地层破碎带或断层;最后,采用最小二乘法拟合了CK方案隧道横截面最大切向应力与最大水平主应力的线性回归模型,并预测了该方案隧道地层的岩爆发育程度。     

Linear geophysical inversion via the discrete cosine pseudo‐inverse: application to potential fields

In this paper, we present a methodology to perform geophysical inversion of large‐scale linear systems via a covariance‐free orthogonal transformation: the discrete cosine transform. The methodology consists of compressing the matrix of the linear system as a digital image and using the interesting properties of orthogonal transformations to define an approximation of the Moore–Penrose pseudo‐inverse. This methodology is also highly scalable since the model reduction achieved by these techniques increases with the number of parameters of the linear system involved due to the high correlation needed for these parameters to accomplish very detailed forward predictions and allows for a very fast computation of the inverse problem solution. We show the application of this methodology to a simple synthetic two‐dimensional gravimetric problem for different dimensionalities and different levels of white Gaussian noise and to a synthetic linear system whose system matrix has been generated via geostatistical simulation to produce a random field with a given spatial correlation. The numerical results show that the discrete cosine transform pseudo‐inverse outperforms the classical least‐squares techniques, mainly in the presence of noise, since the solutions that are obtained are more stable and fit the observed data with the lowest root‐mean‐square error. Besides, we show that model reduction is a very effective way of parameter regularisation when the conditioning of the reduced discrete cosine transform matrix is taken into account. We finally show its application to the inversion of a real gravity profile in the Atacama Desert (north Chile) obtaining very successful results in this non‐linear inverse problem. The methodology presented here has a general character and can be applied to solve any linear and non‐linear inverse problems (through linearisation) arising in technology and, particularly, in geophysics, independently of the geophysical model discretisation and dimensionality. Nevertheless, the results shown in this paper are better in the case of ill‐conditioned inverse problems for which the matrix compression is more efficient. In that sense, a natural extension of this methodology would be its application to the set of normal equations.     

贵州省关岭县土地利用/土地覆被变化及土壤侵蚀效应研究

以贵州省关岭县为例,利用1987和1999年两个时段TM影象和相关资料,分析研究区12年间的土地利用/土地覆被变化及其土壤侵蚀风险。发现:(1)研究区土地利用动态变化较大,年均土地利用综合动态指数为1.36%;(2)旱地和草地互相转化比例高,草地开垦为旱地和旱地弃耕为草地的动态变化幅度远远超过旱地和草地最终面积变化的幅度;(3)山区土地利用的空间变化主要体现在垂直方向;(4)研究区裸土面积下降,一部分被植被覆盖,另一部分由于土壤流失殆尽,形成裸露基岩,故植被覆盖率和基岩出露率上升;(5)石漠化程度加剧,其中旱地石漠化发展速度最快;(6)土壤侵蚀形势严峻。     

闪石族11—12种阳离子占位的X射线衍射估算

本文扼要地介绍了用Ｘ射线衍射强度数据估算闪石族矿物各阳离子占位的方法。实测数据证实,这不权在理论上是可能的,而且在实验上也是可行的。无论是钙质闪石还是碱性闪石,估算精度多数达到９０％左右,可满足晶体化学研究之需。以估算的占位数按国际分类表判定的闪石种属与按成分分析的相比,两者的符合率达８０％～８５％,从而否定了前辈学者“闪石族不能用Ｘ射线粉末法研究”的断言,在这一问题上取得了突破性进展。     

Experimental study of the instabilities of alongshore currents on plane beaches

A laboratory experiment on alongshore currents was conducted for two plane beaches, with gradients 1:40 and 1:100, to investigate the instability of alongshore currents. Complicated and strongly unstable alongshore current motions were observed. In order to clearly examine the spatial and temporal variations of the shear instability of the currents, digital images from a charge-coupled device (CCD) recorded the deformations of dye batches released in the surf zone. Some essential characteristics of the shear instability were obtained from analyses of images showing the temporal variation of the dye patches.A high-resolution spectral analysis technique (the maximum entropy method, or MEM) was used to analyze the dominant frequency of the observed oscillation, along with the trigonometric regression method for determining the variations of the oscillation strength in the cross-shore direction. The propagation speed of the dye patch was obtained by tracking the movement over time of fixed locations in the dye patch, such as its peak, in the longshore direction. This data was then fitted linearly.Alongshore and cross-shore velocity time series acquired from sensors showed clearly that large-amplitude, long-period (about 50 s or 100 s) oscillations were present for all sensors deployed in the cross-shore direction under regular and irregular wave conditions. The analysis found that the maximum shear wave amplitude was approximately one-sixth of the maximum for the mean alongshore current, and occurred approximately at the position of the maximum of the mean alongshore current for irregular waves. The spatial structure of the shear waves was studied by analyzing collected images of the dye patches. The phase velocity of the meandering movements was obtained by measuring the magnitude of the oscillations of the dye patches in the alongshore direction with respect to time. The results suggest that the propagation speed of the shear instability was approximately one-half to three-quarters of the maximum mean longshore current for both regular and irregular waves.Linear instability analysis theory was applied to the characteristics of alongshore current instability, which suggested that there are two instability modes related to the observed oscillations: the frontshear mode observed for the 1:100 slope, and the backshear mode observed for the 1:40 slope. Theoretical analyses agreed with the experimental results in both cases. The velocity profile of the mean longshore current was found to affect the instability mode significantly, leading to further investigations on the influence of the velocity profiles and to provide support for the above conclusions.     

An extended stability criterion for density-driven flows in homogeneous porous media

Stability of density-driven flows is a challenging problem with current applications in major areas like energy exploration, water pollution, nuclear and oil industries. The mathematical model for such flows is a system of coupled non linear partial differential equations. To study the physical stability of the system, we consider steady-state flow and perturb the solution of the full system of equations (without Boussinesq approximation) and investigate how it evolves in time: if the solution does not grow indefinitely, the system is called stable. The perturbations are treated as being the result of sub-scale interactions between the velocity field and the solute mass. Making use of a two-scale expansion of the solution, we derived extended stability criteria that include the effects of density, viscosity and flow velocity in flow configurations aligned parallel as well as orthogonal to gravity forces. Numerical simulations with the numerical simulator d³f$d^{3}f$ are presented to test the theoretical stability criteria.     

RELATIONS BETWEEN PARAMETERS IN THE LINEAR RESERVOIR AND KINEMATIC WAVE MODELS

1 INTRODUCTION Since the traditional unit hydrograph method was proposed by Sherman (1932), it has been widely used in many studies, such as the works by Nash (1957), Linsley et al. (1958), Dooge (1959), Chow (1964), Mays and Taur (1982), and Jakeman et a…     

A second look at western Sinai seif dunes and their lateral migration

Tsoar et al. [Tsoar, H., Blumberg, D.G., Stoler, Y., 2004. Elongation and migration of sand dunes. Geomorphology 57, 293–302.] reported that seif dunes in the western Sinai Desert did not migrate laterally between 1973 and 1999. If the planform sinuosities of the dunes are removed by filtering, spatial averaging, or linear regression, however, it is evident that the dunes did, in fact, migrate laterally roughly 13 m during this 26-year period. The measured migration distance is 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than the rms co-registration error Tsoar et al. determined for the first and last air photos that were used to map the dunes. The western Sinai dunes provide another example demonstrating that linear dunes can migrate laterally, and they illustrate some of the difficulties in documenting systematic lateral motion.Lateral migration of a dune can be important geologically or geomorphologically, even where migration is too slow to detect from repeated topographic surveys. This article explains the wind conditions for the lateral migration of seif dunes in western Sinai and the possible wind occurrences that would not lead to such a migration.