近50年庐山气温和降水变化趋势分析

利用庐山气象站逐月观测资料,对1956—2005年庐山气温和降水的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明,近50 a庐山年平均气温上升了0.8℃,其中冬季上升最明显,为1.5℃;夏季呈下降趋势,为0.2℃。20世纪60年代庐山年平均气温、夏季最高气温下降最为明显,1996年以后上升最为明显。年降水量自1996年起明显下降。庐山的年最高气温、年最低气温、秋季平均气温、秋季最高气温、春季最高气温、春季最低气温在1998年发生了均值突变,冬季最低气温则在1992年前后出现了均值突变;夏季降水在1995年出现均值突变。     

西藏近35年地表湿润指数变化特征及其影响因素

利用1971-2005年西藏25个气象站月平均最高气温、最低气温、风速、相对湿度、日照时数、降水量等资料,应用Penman-Monteith模犁计算了最大潜在蒸散、地表湿润指数,分析了其空间分布、年际变化特征及季节差异,并讨论了影响地表湿润指数变化的气象因子.研究表明:近35年,西藏年降水量表现为显著的增加趋势,增幅为15.0 mm/(10 a);年最大潜在蒸散呈不同程度的减小趋势,为-4.6--71.6 mm/(10 a).阿里地区西南部、聂拉木年地表湿润指数为不显著的减小趋势,其他各地均呈增大趋势,增幅为0.02-0.09.就西藏平均而言,年地表湿润指数以0.04/10 a的速率显著增大,尤其足近25年增幅更为明显.各季节地表湿润指数也表现为增大趋势,以夏季增幅最明显.20世纪70年代剑80年代主要表现为以低温低湿为主的年际变化特征,进入90年代后,气温持续升高,地表湿润指数明显增加,呈现山暖湿型的气候特征.降水量和相对湿度的明显增加,以及平均气温日较差的显著减小是地表湿润指数显著增加的主要原因,平均风速和日照时数的明显减少,在湿润指数增加趋势中也起着重要作用.     

全球定常波对大尺度地形的线性响应

本文应用一个定常态线性原始方程三维谱模式模拟出全球200 hPa定常波的结构特征。同时还考察了模式大气对大尺度地形的线性响应。     

蒙自地区蒸发折算系数分析

利用始于1953年的蒙自气候站小型蒸发器和始于1986年的E-601B型蒸发器蒸发量观测资料,计算两种蒸发器蒸发量折算系数,并与相关分析及线性拟合的结果进行对比分析。结果表明：蒙自站小型蒸发器与E-601B型蒸发器蒸发量的时程分配基本一致,两者之间具有较好的相关关系,线性拟合的线性系数与折算系数较为一致,且检验结果较为接近,推算出该地区两种仪器年蒸发量的折算系数为0.65。研究结果可用于本区气候评价、水量平衡分析和水资源调查等。     

塔克拉玛干沙漠中部地区线形沙丘表面动力学过程

通过野外观测与室内风洞实验模拟,结合研究区气象资料统计分析,研究了塔克拉玛干沙漠中部地区线形沙丘表面动力学过程。结果表明,塔克拉玛干沙漠中部地区的线形沙丘与主风向的夹角为１２．５°,与年合成输沙方向（ＲＤＤ）的夹角为４．８°。年合成风向与主风向一致,但风向变率较大。风洞模拟实验揭示,当风向与线形沙丘的夹角较小时,沙丘背风侧均有旁侧气流存在,且随夹角增大而减弱。气流与输沙势分解结果显示,由于平行于沙丘的输沙分量显著大于垂直于沙丘的输沙分量,使线形沙丘纵向移动较快,约为１０ｍ·ａ－１。整体侧向移动不明显,但因风向变率较大,沙丘基座以上局部侧向移动频繁;平行于沙丘的气流分量大于垂直于沙丘的分量,加上背风侧旁侧气流盛行,使沙粒的总体运动方向平行于沙丘的走向方向,从而使线形沙丘在快速纵向移动的过程中保持形态基本不变。     

Analytical expressions of conditional mean,covariance, and sample functions in geostatistics

This work presents analytical expressions for the best estimate, conditional covariance function, and conditional realizations of a function from sparse observations. In contrast to the prevalent approach in kriging where the best estimates at every point are determined from the solution of a system of linear equations, the best-estimate function can be represented analytically in terms of basis functions, whose number depends on the observations. This approach is computationally superior when graphing a function estimate and is also valuable in understanding what the solution should look like. For example, one can immediately see that all singularities in the best-estimate function are at observation points.     

Relationships between Rainy Days,Mean Daily Intensity and Seasonal Rainfall in Normal,Flood and Drought Years over India

ＲｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｓｂｅｔｗｅｎＲａｉｎｙＤａｙｓ,ＭｅａｎＤａｉｌｙＩｎｔｅｎｓｉｔｙａｎｄＳｅａｓｏｎａｌＲａｉｎｆａｌｉｎＮｏｒｍａｌ,ＦｌｏｏｄａｎｄＤｒｏｕｇｈｔＹｅａｒｓｏｖｅｒＩｎｄｉａＣ．Ｖ．ＳｉｎｇｈＣｅｎｔｒｅｆｏｒＡｔｍｏ...     

CAR模型的阶与时滞的强一致估计

研究随机线性反馈控制系统的结构辨识问题。在已知时滞的下界和模型阶的上界的假定下，通过使修改的Ｂａｙｅｓｉａｎ信息准则最小化，推导出由多输入多输出ＣＡＮ模型描述的系统的未知阶与时滞的估计算法，证明了算法是强一致收敛的，且能在有限步内达到其模型结构参数的真值。讨论了当模型的参数矩阵不满秩时减弱条件Ｈ’ｓ的强一致估计算法。     

A note on linear dispersion and shoaling properties in extended Boussinesq equations

A set of optimum parameter α is obtained to evaluate the linear dispersion and shoaling properties in the extended Boussinesq equations of [Madsen and Sorensen, 1992 and Nwogu, 1993], and [Chen and Liu, 1995]. Optimum α values are determined to produce minimal errors in each wave property of phase velocity, group velocity, or shoaling coefficient relative to the analytical one given by the Stokes wave theory. Comparisons are made of the percent errors in phase velocity, group velocity, and shoaling coefficient produced by the Boussinesq equations with a different set of optimum α values. The case with a fixed value of α = −0.4 is also presented in the comparison. The comparisons reveal that the optimum α value tuned for a particular wave property gives in general poor results for other properties. Considering all the properties simultaneously, the fixed value of α = −0.4 may give overall accuracies in phase velocity and shoaling coefficient for all the types of Boussinesq equations selected in this study.     

Hydrodynamic coefficients of a submerged pulsating sphere in finite depth

By extending the work of Linton (Linton, C.M., 1991. Radiation and diffraction of waver waves by a submerged sphere in finite depth. Ocean Engineering 18 (1/2), 61–74), the problem of radiation of water waves by a submerged pulsating sphere in finite depth is formulated using the multipole method. As in Linton (1991), this leads to an infinite system of linear equations, which are easily solved numerically. Simple expressions are derived for the hydrodynamic characteristics of such a body. Results showing the effect of varying both the immersion depth and the water depth on the hydrodynamic coefficients of the pulsating sphere are given. The paper resumes the work presented in Lopes (Lopes, D.B.S., 1999. On the study of the Archimedes wave swing device for wave energy utilization (in Portuguese). MSc on the Management and Modelling of the Marine Environment, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa.).