北祁连东段及其邻区地震滑坡的基本特征和危险区预测

本文根据野外调查和航片解译，研究了北祁连东段及其邻区地震滑坡的基本特征和形成条件，探讨了地震滑坡的动力机制，并在本区使用多因素模糊数学综合评判方法预测滑坡危险区。     

Water quality evaluation in Tidal River reaches of Liaohe River Estuary, China using a revised QUAL2K model

Rivers in the Liaohe River Estuary area have been seriously polluted by discharges of wastewater containing petroleum pollutants and nutrients. In this paper, The Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model (QUAL2K) and its revised model as well as One-dimensional Tide Mean Model (1D model) were applied to predict and assess the water quality of the tidal river reach of the Liaohe River Estuary. Dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N) and total phosphorus (TP) were chosen as water quality indices in the two model simulations. The modelled results show that the major reasons for degraded rivers remain petroleum and non-point source pollution. Tidal water also has a critical effect on the variation of water quality. The sensitivity analysis identifies that flow rate, point load and diffuse load are the most sensitive parameters for the four water quality indices in the revised QUAL2K simulation. Uncertainty analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation gives the probability distribution of the four water quality indices at two locations (6.50 km and 44.84 km from the river mouth). The statistical outcomes indicate that the observed data fall within the 90% confidence intervals at all sites measured, and show that the revised QUAL2K gives better results in simulating the water quality of a tidal river.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS UPON THE INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOWS IN EASTERN HEMISPHERE

Impacts of regional sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies on the interdecadal variation of the cross-equatorial flows(CEFs)in Eastern Hemisphere are studied using numerical simulations with a global atmospheric circulation model(NCAR CAM3)driven with 1950-2000 monthly SSTs in different marine areas(the globe,extratropics,tropics,tropical Indian Ocean-Pacific,and tropical Pacific)and ERA-40reanalysis data.Results show that all simulations,except the one driven with extratropical SSTs,can simulate the interdecadal strengthening of CEFs around Somali,120oE,and 150oE that occurred in the midand late-1970s.Among those simulated CEFs,the interdecadal variability in Somali and its interdecadal relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon are in better agreement with the observations,suggesting that changes in the SSTs of tropical oceans,especially the tropical Pacific,play a crucial role in the interdecadal variability of CEFs in Somali.The interdecadal change of CEFs in Somali is highly associated with the interdecadal variation of tropical Pacific SST.As the interdecadal warmer(colder)SST happens in the tropical Pacific,a"sandwich"pattern of SST anomalies,i.e."+,-,+"("-,+,-"),will occur in the eastern tropical Pacific from north to south with a pair of anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)at the lower troposphere;the pair links to another pair of anomalous cyclone(anticyclone)in the tropical Indian Ocean through an atmospheric bridge,and thus strengthens(weakens)the CEFs in Somali.     

新疆东天山地区土屋、延东铜矿地球化学特征与异常查证方法

对土屋地区干旱荒漠景观地球化学条件和勘查地球化学方法进行了分析，对比研究了不同比例尺地球化学异常特征及对矿床的反映能力，指出了该区铜元素是预测铜矿的最重要的指示元素，论证了在区域铜高背景区和异常区开展1：5万化探是进一步定性、定位预测矿区、矿床的重要环节，提出了东天山地区经济、有效的地球化学勘查和异常查证方法技术组合。     

加强埃达克岩研究，开创中国Cu、Au等找矿工作的新局面

埃达克岩与浅成低温热液Au-Ag及斑岩型Cu、Cu-Au矿床有密切的关系，环太平洋地区多数大型和世界级的斑岩铜矿均与埃达克岩有关。埃达克岩有利于成矿的关键因素与埃达克岩形成时角闪石转变为石榴石的脱水作用有关，而水能萃取出在地幔和基性岩中富集的金属元素。因此，埃达克岩集中分布的地区有利于铜、金等矿化的聚集。中国铜矿资源严重不足，解决这个紧迫问题的出路在寻找斑岩铜矿。全球铜矿主要分布在环太平洋地区，中国与环太平洋类似的地区不是中国东部，而是古亚洲洋造山带、东北吉黑东部和西藏冈底斯。从国家目标出发，建议实施铜、金等找矿工作的战略转移，把浅成低温热液和斑岩型Au、Cu、Ag等矿床找矿的重点放在古生代的古亚洲洋造山带、晚古生代-中生代的吉黑东部和中-新生代的冈底斯地区。古亚洲洋造山带首选阿尔泰西南缘-东准噶尔、东天山和内蒙古中部3个地区。埃达克岩可以作为找矿标志来使用，因此，在找矿思路上也应当有一个变化，即：先找埃达克岩，再找矿。     

新疆东准噶尔萨北富碱花岗岩SHRIMP锆石U-Pb测年及其地质意义

萨北锡矿赋矿的富碱（A型）花岗岩隶属于新疆东准噶尔地区卡拉麦里富碱花岗岩带,其中的萨北超单元可以划分为细粒钠铁闪石花岗岩、中细粒钠铁闪石花岗岩、中粗粒钠铁闪石花岗岩和斑状钠铁闪石花岗岩等四个单元。本次工作选择萨北超单元中的中细粒钠铁闪石花岗岩和中粗粒钠铁闪石花岗岩进行SHRIMP锆石u-Pb定年,所获得的两个样品加权平均年龄分别为313±2Ma和314±5Ma,谐和年龄分别为310±7Ma和314±10Ma。结合对中亚造山带东准噶尔晚古生代构造环境和萨北富碱花岗岩带花岗岩的地球化学特征,作者认为：该岩体侵位于晚石炭世（约310Ma）,为晚古生代后碰撞岩浆活动的产物,与东准噶尔后碰撞深成岩浆活动的两个峰期（330～310Ma和305～280Ma）中的前一个峰期相一致。     

东昆仑断裂带东端的构造转换与2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震孕震机制

2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0地震是继2008年汶川M_S8.0地震和2013年芦山M_S7.0地震之后,青藏高原东缘在不到十年的时间内发生的第三个震级M_S7.0以上的强震.这次地震发生在东昆仑断裂带东端,作为青藏高原东北缘的一条大型左旋走滑断裂带,东昆仑断裂带与东端其它构造之间的转换关系仍不清楚,因区内地质构造和地形复杂,东昆仑断裂带东端的主要构造仍缺少深入的研究.本文在总结区域地震构造活动特征、历史地震和现代地震基础上,通过东昆仑断裂带东端已有的和最近开展的活动构造定量研究结果,并结合现今GPS变形场资料和2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震灾害特征分析,发现东昆仑断裂带最东段塔藏断裂上的左旋走滑除了一小部分继续向东传播转移到文县断裂带上外,大部分转化为其南侧的龙日坝断裂带北段、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂上的近东西向地壳缩短,这可能是岷山隆起的构造机制,而2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震正是左旋走滑的东昆仑断裂带在东端继续向东扩展的结果.

     

The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

东昆仑活动断裂带的强震构造条件及未来强震危险区分析

通过对东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的研究发现，这条断裂带的强震构造条件不仅与所处的区域地壳运动状况有关，而且与该活动断裂带的规模、形态，断裂带的构造组合及断裂带的运动条件等密切相关。在研究了东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的基础上，还沿断裂带划出了三个未来强震危险区。     

东喜马拉雅构造结岩体冷却的40Ar/39Ar年代学研究

对采自东喜马拉雅构造结核心地段雅鲁藏布大峡谷地区的13件标本中的20件矿物样品进行了系统的常规^40Ar／^39Ar年代学研究。数据显示,样品的（^40Ar／^39Ar）i值均接近尼尔值（295．5±5）,且绝大部分样品的坪年龄与其反等时线年龄在误差范围内一致。从数据统计结果来看,所测样品的^40Ar／^39Ar年龄大都集中在1．3Ma和2．5Ma左右,表明南迦巴瓦地区在上新世中期和更新世早期均经历了快速冷却抬升事件。本次测试的样品采自不同的高程及不同的构造单元,且样品原岩的成因及岩性各异,但沿着大峡谷由北向南不同地段的样品的不同矿物（角闪石、黑云母、白云母、钾长石）的^40Ar／^39Ar年龄相近,而同一样品中不同矿物的^40Ar／^39Ar年龄大小又并非完全按照矿物对氩同位素体系的封闭温度高低来分布,表明该地区在上新世以来的岩体冷却速率很大,以致该地区的矿物对氩同位素体系的封闭过程与处于缓慢冷却环境中的封闭过程明显不同。以本文报道的数据估算,南迦巴瓦地区的岩体在最近3Ma以来的冷却速率达120～240℃／Ma,岩体抬升速率达3．4—6．9mm／a。