热气候指数评价中国南方城市夏季舒适度

利用南方14个城市1981-2013年6-9月的逐日气象资料,根据生物环境特点,制定了基于通用热气候指数的新评价方法,对中国南方城市夏季舒适度进行评价研究。结果表明:中国南方城市的高温不舒适天数近33 a来以3.4 d/10a的速度增加,并有5 a震荡周期。舒适度排名显示,体感温度最高的4个城市分别为重庆、福州、南昌和长沙,杭州与重庆的体感舒适度下降速率较快。对比高温不舒适天数和高温日数发现,两者具有很好的一致性,证明了高温不舒适度与气温关系的密切性。同时,由于热气候指标计算要素的多重考虑,结果与高温日数存在一些差异,但其更具有一定参考和应用价值。     

Making spaces: The ethnic Brao people and the international border between Laos and Cambodia

On December 6, 1904 the present international border between Laos and Cambodia was unilaterally established when the French colonial government extracted Stung Treng Province from Laos and transferred it to Cambodia. The ethnic Brao people living in the border region were not well known to the French, and in any case, their views were not deemed important. But since then the Brao have utilised this state administrative boundary in ways not intended by its designers, or governments since then, to give them more power to create new spaces. When conditions in Cambodia have been deemed unfavourable, the Brao have often crossed into Laos, and similarly, when circumstances have been less advantageous in Laos they have moved to Cambodia.This paper traces the history of the Brao as it specifically relates to the international border between Laos and Cambodia. While this administrative boundary was created to help national governments keep populations confined within nation-states, Brao human agency has sometimes confounded these efforts, through transforming its significance and role. The boundary has separated Brao populations in ways that are sometimes upsetting to them, but it has also allowed the Brao to position themselves at the margins of different nation-states, in spaces where they have been able to, at least temporarily, avoid or reduce state control over them. These are not non-state spaces; they are fundamentally constituted by a state-established boundary, even if the Brao have been able to mobilise this resource to empower themselves, and sometimes to resist the state itself.     

Probable Neolithic footprints preserved in inter-tidal peat at Kenfig, South Wales (UK)

Holocene footprints have been reported from several locations around the UK coast preserved within inter-tidal sediments. These sediments are normally fine-grained silts, sands and clays. Here we report potential human footprints preserved in the lower of two inter-tidal peat units exposed on the foreshore at Kenfig in South Wales. The lower peat layer pre-dates 3810 ± 40 BP and its maximum age is constrained by two dates, one of 4930 ± 50 BP and another of 5110 ± 50 BP. The prints may have formed at any point within this time interval. Both peat units formed in a salt marsh, or fen environment, as indicated by the analysis of both diatoms and pollen and have been tentatively assigned to the middle Wentlooge Formation within the Holocene lithostratigraphy established for the Severn Estuary Holocene sequence. The footprints were digitised using an optical laser scanner and are compared to other Holocene human footprints exposed on the Sefton Coast in North West England. In comparison the Kenfig prints have poor anatomical form which may be the result of both the substrate and post-depositional modification. The paper demonstrates the value of using optical laser scanning in the data capture and analysis of transitory archaeological and geological trace evidence.     

气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。     

800年来苏北废黄河三角洲的演变模式

根据历史资料、数据和相关研究,结合研究区域背景,分析苏北废黄河三角洲的演变。结果显示,岸线演变在发育阶段和侵蚀阶段分别为向海延伸约90 km和侵蚀后退约22 km,面积相差约800 km2,三角洲地貌演变表现为岸线平直-曲折-平滑-平直的过程。在废三角洲陆海相互作用的基础上,运用演化模式分析三角洲的演变过程。该三角洲演变可以分为7个演变阶段,发育期在径流和潮流作用下以沙洲并陆淤积延伸方式进行,侵蚀期在波浪和潮流作用下以沙洲合并侵蚀后退和淤积外长交替侵蚀的方式。泥沙输运、人类活动和气候变化对废三角洲的演变有重要影响,巨量的来沙是三角洲发育的原因,泥沙平衡被打破是侵蚀的主要原因。发育期中,泥沙输运影响淤积速度和位置,人类活动和气候变化影响黄河河道迁移、输沙量和产沙量;侵蚀期中,泥沙输运影响侵蚀状态,人类活动在一定程度上影响海岸带冲/淤,气候变化将影响三角洲的演变趋势。     

Food choices,health and environment: Effects of cutting Europe's meat and dairy intake

Western diets are characterised by a high intake of meat, dairy products and eggs, causing an intake of saturated fat and red meat in quantities that exceed dietary recommendations. The associated livestock production requires large areas of land and lead to high nitrogen and greenhouse gas emission levels. Although several studies have examined the potential impact of dietary changes on greenhouse gas emissions and land use, those on health, the agricultural system and other environmental aspects (such as nitrogen emissions) have only been studied to a limited extent. By using biophysical models and methods, we examined the large-scale consequences in the European Union of replacing 25–50% of animal-derived foods with plant-based foods on a dietary energy basis, assuming corresponding changes in production. We tested the effects of these alternative diets and found that halving the consumption of meat, dairy products and eggs in the European Union would achieve a 40% reduction in nitrogen emissions, 25–40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and 23% per capita less use of cropland for food production. In addition, the dietary changes would also lower health risks. The European Union would become a net exporter of cereals, while the use of soymeal would be reduced by 75%. The nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of the food system would increase from the current 18% to between 41% and 47%, depending on choices made regarding land use. As agriculture is the major source of nitrogen pollution, this is expected to result in a significant improvement in both air and water quality in the EU. The resulting 40% reduction in the intake of saturated fat would lead to a reduction in cardiovascular mortality. These diet-led changes in food production patterns would have a large economic impact on livestock farmers and associated supply-chain actors, such as the feed industry and meat-processing sector.     

The mechanism of post-rift fault activities in Baiyun sag,Pearl River Mouth basin

Post-rift fault activities were often observed in deepwater basins, which have great contributions to oil and gas migration and accumulation. The main causes for post-rift fault activities include tectonic events, mud or salt diapirs, and gravitational collapse. In the South China Sea continental margin, post-rift fault activities are widely distributed, especially in Baiyun sag, one of the largest deepwater sag with its main body located beneath present continental slope. During the post-rift stage, large population of faults kept active for a long time from 32 Ma (T70) till 5.5 Ma (T10). Seismic interpretation, fault analysis and analogue modeling experiments indicate that the post-rift fault activities in Baiyun sag between 32 Ma (T70) and 13.8 Ma (T30) was mainly controlled by gravity pointing to the Main Baiyun sag, which caused the faults extensive on the side facing Main Baiyun sag and the back side compressive. Around 32 Ma (T70), the breakup of the continental margin and the spreading of the South China Sea shed a combined effect of weak compression toward Baiyun sag. The gravity during post-rift stage might be caused by discrepant subsidence and sedimentation between strongly thinned sag center and wing areas. This is supported by positive relationship between sedimentation rate and fault growth index. After 13.8 Ma (T30), fault activity shows negative relationship with sedimentation rate. Compressive uplift and erosion in seismic profiles as well as negative tectonic subsiding rates suggest that the fault activity from 13.8 Ma (T30) to 5.5 Ma (T10) might be controlled by the subductive compression from the Philippine plate in the east.     

Paleolithic vs. Epipaleolithic fisheries in northern Iberia

A comparison of Paleolithic and Epipaleolithic fisheries in NW Iberia shows an overall high trophic level of catch. Freshwater fisheries (and thus their impacts) are ca. 8000 yr older than marine fisheries and have suffered virtually no changes in the region except for the increase in numbers, being focused on two families (Salmonidae, and Anguillidae to a very minor extent). Marine fisheries in the Paleolithic likely had a low impact but rapidly increased in importance, raising the average trophic level of the catch, the number of affected taxa and the proportion of marine to freshwater fisheries with time.     

A 7000-year record of environmental change,including early farming impact,based on lake-sediment geochemistry and pollen data from County Sligo,western Ireland

Detailed, chronologically tightly constrained, lake-sediment-based geochemical and pollen records have enabled local changes in soil erosion, woodland cover and composition, and prehistoric farming impact to be reconstructed in considerable detail. The profile opens shortly after 7800 BC when tall canopy trees were well-established and presumably in equilibrium with their environment. A distinct perturbation that involved an increase in pine and birch, a decrease in oak and a minor opening-up of the woodland is regarded as the local expression of the 8.2 ka climate anomaly. Lack of response in the geochemical erosional indicators is interpreted as evidence for drier conditions. A short-lived, over-compensation in climate recovery followed the 8.2 ka event. Neolithic farming impact is clearly expressed in both the pollen and geochemical data. Both datasets indicate that Neolithic impact was concentrated in the early Neolithic (3715–3440 BC). In the interval 3000–2700 BC there appears to have been a break in farming activity. The pollen data suggest substantially increased farming impact (both arable and pastoral) in the Bronze Age, with maximum farming and woodland clearances taking place in the late Bronze Age (1155–935 BC). These developments are poorly expressed in the geochemical record, possibly due to within-lake changes.     

青藏高原东北部甘加盆地古梯田地层与年代初探

梯田是人类几千年来利用和改造自然能力的象征,在人类社会发展中发挥了重要的作用。甘加盆地位于青藏高原东北部甘肃省夏河县,盆地内的丘陵、山麓地带分布大面积的层状梯形景观,疑似弃耕的古代梯田。本文在实地考察的基础上,基于卫星遥感资料,通过GIS手段分析发现古梯田面积为42.2 km²（约63000亩）,主要分布在盆地内央曲河及其支流两侧海拔2936~3326 m间的山坡上。通过对3个古梯田剖面样品的磁化率、总有机碳/氮（TOC、TN）含量、孢粉、粒度等环境代用指标分析,同时对比具有准确年代控制的自然剖面磁化率与粒度。研究结果显示：梯田开垦于晚全新世（距今3000 a）古土壤,梯田剖面顶部25~35 cm不同于自然剖面而呈均一化的指标证实了耕作层的存在（距今约1000 a以下层位）;但耕作层之上TOC、TN含量的增多,以及梯田剖面与自然剖面整体一致的指标变化趋势说明了梯田被短期利用后长期废弃;结合历史文献资料推断夏河古梯田是在北宋“弓箭手屯田”制度（1074—1125年）下开垦的;气候重建资料显示该时段温度较高、降水增加,整体有益于农业生产。本文提供了过去人类社会适应气候变化的典型案例。