根据烈度分布确定华北历史地震破裂区的经验准则及其应用

地震破裂区是地震时沿发震断裂带的同震错动面或破裂面在地表的垂直投影区域,指示了震源断层/破裂的位置与尺度。确定过去长期的强震/大地震破裂区是鉴别地震空区、研究与预测强震危险性的重要基础。对于现代强震,破裂区可运用多种现代技术方法确定,但对于历史强震,破裂区确定的方法需要探索与发展。以华北地区为例,研究利用烈度/等震线资料、结合地震构造与震区地表地质环境等信息确定历史强震破裂区的方法,并开展应用试验。结果表明:研究区现代地震破裂区延伸的烈度区间与极震区烈度、震区环境之间存在密切关系,基于这种关系建立了2条经验准则,可分别用于根据烈度分布确定华北2类震区环境(基岩区和厚层第四纪松散堆积覆盖区)历史强震破裂区的位置与延伸。文中还提出通过综合地震构造、现代小震/余震分布等信息,辅助确定历史强震破裂区横向宽度的思路与途径。作为应用试验,文中确定了5次历史地震的破裂区,结果表明本文发展的经验准则及相应方法适用于华北地区历史强震破裂区的确定。     

Absorption properties of urban/suburban aerosols in China

The broadband diffuse radiation method is improved to retrieve the aerosol refractive index imaginary part （AIP） and broadband （400-1000 nm mean） single scattering albedo （SSA）. In this method, four sets of SSA selection criteria are proposed for quality control. The method is used to retrieve AIP, SSA and absorptive optical thickness （AbOT） from routine hourly-exposed pyrheliometer and paranometer measurements over 11 sites （meteorological observatories） in China during 1998-2003. Apart from one suburban site （Ejin Qi）, the other urban sites are all located around big or medium cities. As shown in the retrieval results, annual mean SSA during 1998-2003 changes from 0.941 （Wuhan） to 0.849 （Lanzhou）, and AIP from 0.0054 to 0.0203. The 11-site average annual mean SSA and AIP are 0.898 and 0.0119, respectively. SSA during winter is smaller for most sites. There is an evidently positive correlation between SSA and aerosol optical thickness （AOT） for all sites. There is also a positive correlation between SSA and relative humidity for most sites, but a negative correlation for a few sites, such as Kashi and ǚrǚmqi in Northwest China.     

随机森林机器算法在江苏省小麦赤霉病病穗率预测中的应用

基于2002—2018年江苏省13个市的小麦赤霉病病穗率资料与生育期观测资料、相应时段内的逐日气象数据,应用随机森林机器学习算法,分生育期、分区域定量评估影响病穗率的主要气象因子特征变量和贡献率,按不同起报时间建立预测模型并进行验证。结果表明,各生育期重要特征变量贡献率的排序为:抽穗扬花期>拔节期>越冬期。抽穗扬花期湿度、连续≥3 d的雨日和日照对赤霉病起主导作用,拔节期日照、降雨量、湿度和雨日与越冬期气温和降雪对赤霉病均具有前期影响,甄别出的重要特征变量排序结果符合赤霉病菌发育、释放、侵染和流行规律;基于随机森林算法建立的病穗率预测模型的精度与重要特征变量个数、赤霉病发生区域、M_try参数设定、生育期有关;最早可在3月初进行预测,预测时效近3个月,起报时间越接近乳熟期,输入的重要特征变量越多,则病穗率预测准确率越高,病穗率模拟值与实测值的波动趋势完全一致,对赤霉病"中等"和"偏重"等级模拟效果好,表明随机森林算法在赤霉病预测中有较高的可靠性和业务应用潜力。     

空间U统计量法在遥感蚀变信息提取中的应用研究

鉴于传统蚀变异常信息提取方法的局限性,试图在二维光谱特征空间(即散点图)中研究遥感蚀变信息的提取方法.在二维散点图中,两个波段灰度值的联合分布体现了各向异性的特点,聚类常呈类似椭圆形分布.对散点图中点的频数使用空间U统计量法逐个获得地物聚类的椭圆参数,将每个椭圆内的点映射到遥感图像上,经过目视解译,最终获得蚀变异常信息...     

基于探空资料因子组合分析方法的冰雹预报

以1978—2007年四川省宜宾探空站200 km范围内共45例降雹事件与非降雹事件作为时间样本,将利用T-lnp探空资料计算表征热力、动力、水汽条件、温度、高度等物理参数作为预报因子,采用因子组合分析方法对3244个预报因子进行筛选,找出影响宜宾探空站附近降雹的预报因子,并计算得到它们的阈值及组合关系,建立了冰雹预报指标判别式。两个主要因子为400 hPa饱和湿静力温度与850 hPa湿静力温度之差 (T_σ400*-T_σ850) 和400 hPa与地面垂直气压梯度之差 (G_z400-G_zsurface),两个条件因子为700 hPa水汽压与饱和水汽压之差 (e₇₀₀-e_s700) 和700 hPa露点温度与饱和湿静力温度之差 (T_d700-T_σ700*)。将2008年全年732例时次的T-lnp探空资料代入判别式进行试报,探测率为84%,空报率为67.7%,成功指数为30.4%,试报结果表明:基于探空资料因子组合分析方法得到的冰雹预报指标判别方法可行,具有一定准确性。     

不同密度团头鲂(Megalobrama amblycephala)对轮叶黑藻(Hydrilla verticillata)和密刺苦草(Vallisneria denseserrulata)群落结构的影响

冠层型水草轮叶黑藻在富营养情况下,生长迅速,覆盖水面,对于草甸型水草密刺苦草具有明显的竞争优势.为控制轮叶黑藻的竞争优势,于湖北省鄂州市团头鲂原种场的一个池塘进行了原位围隔（10 m×10 m）实验,研究不同密度（0、0.5和1尾/m²）团头鲂牧食作用对轮叶黑藻和密刺苦草群落结构的影响,并通过无人机数字图像处理获取水草覆盖度信息.实验过程中,沉水植物总覆盖度未发生变化.研究发现,团头鲂选择性牧食使得密刺苦草生物量和覆盖度显著增加.随着牧食强度的加大,团头鲂对轮叶黑藻的控制效果显著,放养密度为1尾/m²的围隔中轮叶黑藻比例降幅最明显.群落中轮叶黑藻与密刺苦草的生物量之比迅速下降,由6.14减少至0.002,覆盖度之比由4.88左右减少至约1.44.图像处理结果与实际采样情况相吻合,且通过误差矩阵得到图像分类平均精度达到90%以上,表明无人机数字图像处理在一定条件下可以作为获取沉水植物覆盖度的一种有效辅助手段.实验结束后,1尾/m²组的围隔中密刺苦草成为优势种,其植株密度、株高、株重和单株叶片数均显著增加,草甸更加密实.实验结果表明,放养1尾/m²密度的团头鲂可以有效控制轮叶黑藻并维持密刺苦草种群优势,结果为团头鲂对湖泊沉水植物群落的控制提供了参考.     

差分法计算地震动旋转分量

旋转地震学是一门研究由地震、爆破以及工程振动等引起的地球介质运动的新兴学科.旋转运动的研究由来已久,但是由于缺少高精度的旋转分量地震仪,所以旋转运动的研究大多仅限于理论方面.差分法作为利用平动分量获取旋转分量的一种计算方法,在理论研究方面较为成熟,但是缺乏实际数据的验证.通过在对旋转运动研究现状充分调研的基础上,利用模...     

区域化探数据处理的几种分形方法

地球化学变量兼有随机性、确定性和区域结构性的特征,传统的数学方法难以精确地描述地球化学变量的空间分布规律,而新兴的分形几何是刻画空间不规则形体的一种比较有效的工具,且分维值可以表征空间不规则形体的确定性本质。基于分形原理,提出含量-总量法、空间分形插值法和分形趋势面法3种新的分形技术,应用于区域化探数据处理。在几个典型矿区应用后发现,上述分形方法不仅可以有效地模拟地球化学变量的空间分布特征,而且在保留原始有效异常信息的基础上可以更合理地区分地球化学变量的背景与异常,具有发现和强化弱异常信息的重要功效。     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.     

Analysis of a rigid footing lying on three-layered soil using the finite difference method

A numerical procedure is described for the analysis of the vertical deformation and the stress distribution of the strip footings on layered soil media. Three layers of soil with different stiffness are considered with the middle soil layer the thinnest and most stiff layer. The soil media is discretized and using the theory of elasticity, the governing differential equations are obtained in terms of vertical and horizontal displacements. These equations along with appropriate boundary and continuity conditions are solved by using the finite difference method. The vertical and horizontal displacements, strains and stresses are found at various nodes in the soil media. Parametric studies are carried out to study the effect of the placement depth of the middle soil layer, the relative ratios of the moduli of deformation of the soil layers on the vertical displacement of the footing and the vertical stress distribution. These studies reveal that the middle thin but very stiff layer acts like a plate and redistributes the stresses on the lower soft soil layer uniformly. The displacement on the top and bottom of the middle soil layer is almost the same showing that the compression of the middle layer is negligible as it is very stiff.