地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨

在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务.     

Seismic hazard analysis in zones of time and space interdependence: An application to S?o Miguel Island, Azores

The Azores Islands are located in the mid-Atlantic region near the triple junction where the Euro-Asiatic-African-American plates join together. Seismic activity in the area is very high, as can be observed either from historical events since the fifteenth century, from present day microseismicity, and from direct and indirect measurements of recent tectonic deformation. Volcanic activity is also present throughout the region.All available information, even data exhibiting low quality, was used to develop hazard models of São Miguel Island. Source zones were established based on both the global tectonic behaviour of the region and on the local active fault structures. Recurrence laws for São Miguel Island, for which historical information seemed quite incomplete, were obtained from the large events in the entire archipelago and from their remarkable pattern of time and space dependence, and complimented by information on long-term fault deformation (for the longer recurrence periods) and on high precision instrumental network (for the very short recurrence periods).Attenuation laws were derived from data on events felt and/or recorded in the Island.Hazard maps were obtained through a modified version of McGuire's algorithm for several geometries of source areas and results compared with the maximum observed intensity of historical events.Abstract presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.     

The Tornado Hazard In Southern New England: History,Characteristics, Student And Teacher Perceptions

Abstract

People generally do not perceive New England to be tornado-prone. Yet, there is a long history of such storms in the six states going back to the late seventeenth century. Usually, New England tornadoes are small and short-lived; even so, some have caused many deaths and much property damage. There is a greater probability for a person to be affected by a tornado in southern New England than in much of the American Midwest. As building and population density increases, so does the hazard potential. Data from awareness surveys indicate that the lack of tornado knowledge remains a serious problem for teachers, students, and the public, and government information about such storms is not being widely disseminated.     

Sequence stratigraphy and architecture of a late Early–Middle Aptian carbonate platform succession from the western Maestrat Basin (Iberian Chain, Spain)

The attributes of a ‘four-systems-tract’ sequence are at times difficult to identify in outcrop-scale carbonate successions. Poor exposure conditions, variable rates of sediment production, erosion and/or superposition of surfaces that are intrinsic to the nature of carbonate systems frequently conceal or remove its physical features. The late Early–Middle Aptian platform carbonates of the western Maestrat Basin (Iberian Chain, Spain) display facies heterogeneity enabling platform, platform-margin and slope geometries to be identified, and provide a case study that shows all the characteristics of a quintessential four systems tract-based sequence. Five differentiated systems tracts belonging to two distinct depositional sequences can be recognized: the Highstand Systems Tract (HST) and Forced Regressive Wedge Systems Tract (FRWST) of Depositional Sequence A; and the Lowstand Prograding Wedge Systems Tract (LPWST), Transgressive Systems Tract (TST) and subsequent return to a highstand stage of sea-level (HST) of Depositional Sequence B. An extensive carbonate platform of rudists and corals stacked in a prograding pattern marks the first HST. The FRWST is constituted by a detached, slightly cross-bedded calcarenite situated at the toe of the slope in a basinal position. The LPWST is characterized by a small carbonate platform of rudists and corals downlapping over the FRWST and onlapping landwards. The TST exhibits platform backstepping and marly sedimentation. Resumed carbonate production in shelf and slope settings characterizes the second HST. A basal surface of forced regression, a subaerial unconformity, a correlative conformity, a transgressive surface and a maximum flooding surface bound these systems tracts, and are well documented and widely mappable across the platform-to-basin transition area analyzed. Moreover, the sedimentary succession studied is made up of four types of parasequence that constitute stratigraphic units deposited within a higher-frequency sea-level cyclicity. Ten lithofacies associations form these basic accretional units. Each facies assemblage can be ascribed to an inferred depositional environment in terms of bathymetry, hydrodynamic conditions and trophic level. The architecture of the carbonate platform systems reflects a flat-topped non-rimmed depositional profile. Furthermore, these carbonate shelves are interpreted as having been formed in low hydrodynamic conditions. The long-term relative fall in sea-level occurred during the uppermost Early Aptian, which subaerially exposed the carbonate platform established during the first HST and resulted in the deposition of the FRWST, is interpreted as one of global significance. Moreover, a possible relationship between this widespread sea-level drop and glacio-eustasy seems plausible, and could be linked to the cooling event proposed in the literature for the late Early Aptian. Because of the important implications in sequence stratigraphy of this study, the sedimentary succession analyzed herein could serve as an analogue for the application of the four-systems-tract sequence stratigraphic methodology to carbonate systems.     

文化消费者对黄梅戏展演空间感知的模式与价值寻求：方法−目的链理论的应用

以安庆黄梅戏会馆和再芬黄梅公馆为例,基于方法?目的链理论模型,解读文化消费者对黄梅戏展演空间属性的感知评价、层次处理和价值导向的转变。研究发现：不同层次的空间属性在文化消费者的感知与体验中实现着新的组合与重构,由此形成了基于舞台展演内容、文化呈现形式以及演出环境氛围为主体的3种空间感知模式。结合文化消费者感知的心理结构与路径,黄梅戏展演空间被消费者建构为娱乐空间、情感空间和社交空间,空间的多元化意义和价值得到彰显。方法?目的链理论从消费者的感知与需求出发,探索文化空间意义生成路径,实现了文化空间与消费者之间的双向信息交换。     

四川省万县市滑坡群灾害灾情评估

地质灾害的全部过程可以概括为灾前孕育阶段、灾害活动阶段和灾后恢复阶段等三个阶段。对地质灾害灾情评估应包括对灾害灾情进行系统调查、统计、分析和评价等项工作,评估的重点是整个地质灾害形成过程中的灾害活动情况。本文以四川省万县市为例,在论述地质灾害灾情评估理论的基础上,对万县市的地质灾害～滑坡群进行了灾情的评估。     

河北张北6.2级地震中农村房屋破坏特征分析

对１９９８年１月１０日河北张北６．２级地震灾区的房屋建筑类型进行了划分,概述了各类建筑物的平面布置、墙体、屋顶、承重结构和地基等情况,总结了各类房屋建筑的破坏特点,并对造成破坏严重的原因进行了分析     

基于局部采样MCMC方法的时移探地雷达反演

马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法(MCMC)是一种启发式的全局寻优算法,可以用来解决概率反演的问题.基于MCMC方法的反演不依赖于准确的初始模型,可以引入任意复杂的先验信息,通过对先验概率密度函数的采样来获得大量的后验概率分布样本,在寻找最优解的过程中可以跳出局部最优得到全局最优解.MCMC方法由于计算量巨大,应用难度较高,在地...     

Hazard Assessment of Co-seismic Landslides Based on Information Value Method: A Case in 2018 MW6.6 Hokkaido Earthquake, Japan

An M_W6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido, Japan on September 6^th, 2018. Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution (3 m) planet satellite, we manually interpret 9 293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, road distance, flow distance, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and lithology. Then, 9 293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3. In detail, the training sample has 6 505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2 788 landslide points. The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades, including very low risk area, low risk area, moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area. The results show that there are 7 576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area, accounting for 81.52% of the total landslide number, and the landslide area is 22.93 km², accounting for 74.35% of the total area. The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation. The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number. The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50% and the prediction rate is 78.43%. The evaluation results are satisfactory, indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.     

Highlights of Recent Scientific Earthquake Hazard Mitigation

Earthquakes are a serious natural disaster faced by countries all over the world. Research on earthquake hazard mitigation are important parts of earthquake science and is a feature of China''s development of earthquake science. In recent years, the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of the People''s Republic of China, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) have attached great importance to basic research on earthquake hazard mitigation, and new opportunities and challenges have emerged. This paper collects the applications and approvals of the National Key R&D Program and the NSFC projects undertaken by the research institutes of the CEA system in recent years. The CEA system has received funding in the 13th “Five-year Plan” for “Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster”. The implementation of these projects is expected to provide support for the basic science and applied research of the CEA system. In the NSFC, the number of applications from the CEA system is relatively stable, and the funding rate is slightly higher than the average for the department of earth science. Although no detailed statistical analysis has been performed, the CEA system still has room for improvement in the application of talent and major programs. I hope that the brief review of new opportunities that have arose in recent years described in this article can provide some background and new thinking for future challenges.