Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

建议一个弥补震害资料不足的方法

本文用模糊贴近度原则作类比,提供了一种弥补震害预测时历史地震资料不足的方法,途径是将一个烈度之下的震害经验推广到其他烈度上去用。实践证明,用这种建立在近似推理基础之上的方法推导出来的结果,在总体趋势上和真实情况完全一致。     

论减轻自然灾害工作

本文概述自然灾害的各类及其危害性，分析自然灾害的共同特点，讨论减轻灾害的意义，文中指出提高防灾意识，加强灾害预防预报，制定减灾计划，建立减灾工作体系，开展群众防灾教育和培养专业及业余防灾人员是当前减灾工作的主要任务。     

邢台地震房屋破坏率的正态性X￣2检验

对１９６６年３月８日和３月２２日台地震中的房屋破坏情况进行统计，计算了地震区主要房屋土坯墙房在Ⅳ～Ⅸ度中的毁坏率、严重破坏率和中等破坏率。通过Ｘ￣２检验得出，Ⅵ度和Ⅸ度区房屋毁坏率、严重破坏率和中等破坏率的分布均服从正态分布     

Life-cycle cost analysis of design practices for RC framed structures

The objective of this study is to perform life-cycle cost analysis on three design practices namely weak ground storey, short and floating columns and their combinations. Life-cycle cost analysis is recognized as the only suitable tool for assessing the structural performance when the structure is expected to be functional for a long period of time. Life-cycle cost analysis is considered in this study assessing the behaviour of the three design practices against earthquake hazard. Although, a number of checks are performed in order to reduce the influence of these design practices on the seismic behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures, it was found that the total life-cycle cost of partially infilled RC designs is significantly increased compared to that of the fully infilled one. Through the test example examined in the framework of this study general conclusions are obtained regarding the behaviour of the three design practices.     

评估地震人员伤亡的软件系统

设计了地震人员伤亡评估系统软件包，并利用该系统对北京地区假定地震发生后的人员伤亡进行了预测。为设计该系统，建立了北京地区的人口数据库、唐山和邢台地震人员伤亡数据库，对一天中人在不同时间段逗留在房屋内部的概率进行了讨论，从而建立了地震人员伤亡评估的数学模型。该系统作为地震灾害评估系统的子系统，主要用于地震人员伤亡的快速评估     

结构主动控制和混合控制的装置和方法

本系统讨论了土木工程结构的主动控制和混合控制设备的构造和性能及其实际应用的效果；对一般非线性优化控制方法及其效用做了分析介绍；对当前土木工程结构控制研究中存在的困难和问题以及今后的发展趋势进行了分析讨论和展望。     

阴山山链隆起机制及有关问题探讨

阴山隆起为异常地幔发育区，软流层上凸、岩石圈变薄、幔汁上侵、地幔底辟，垂直运动激烈；阴山隆起又处在南北两大板块夹击挤压构造带上，水平运动强烈。所以，阴山隆起是中新生代垂直运动和水平运动共同作用的结果。随着阴山山链的隆起，在其南缘形成了呼包、临河等地堑式盆地。     

民房震害预测专家评定统计模型的探讨

本文针对专家评定意见有一定伸缩性的特点,将专家意见表示为评定论域上的模糊子集,利用可能性相加原理,对专家意见进行了统计分析,得出综合性的意见。结果表明,利用伸缩性提供的丰富信息,可以较好地总结专家意见。基于几种模型的仿真可靠性分析结果,本文推荐可靠性最高的模型作为城市平房震害预测统计手段。     

Risk assessment of the impact of pyroclastic currents on the towns located around Vesuvio: a non-linear structural inverse analysis

In a.d. 79, the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvio, which later was described in two famous letters by Pliny the Younger to Tacitus the Historian, destroyed Pompeii, Hercolaneum, Oplontis and Stabiae, resulting in many thousand of victims. After a few hours of the eruption, the several-kilometre-high volcanic column began to collapse, provoking strong air shocks as well as destructive pyroclastic density currents, which travelled down the volcano slopes. In 2000, an archaeological excavation survey, which was performed on the east slope of the volcano in the Terzigno–Vesuvio area at a distance of about 5 km from the vent, brought to light the ruins of several Roman villas that were completely destroyed by these currents during the a.d. 79 eruption. The present paper proposes a new structural analysis, which starts from the study of the damage produced on partially collapsed masonry walls, and determines the dynamic pressures of the currents that overran this site. The non-linear structural analysis, which is based on strength values obtained by means of experimental tests, is of the 'inverse type' and takes into account the limit behaviour of the ancient Roman masonry. The values of the dynamic pressures that were capable of producing the collapse of the masonry walls were obtained by utilising a modern limit analysis theory. The obtained results show that dynamic pressures of a few kPa (1–5) were able to cause masonry buildings to collapse. These values are consistent with those proposed in some of the latest volcanological studies made by numerical simulations of pyroclastic flow propagation. It is shown here that these dynamic pressures are even able to determine the collapse of both modern reinforced concrete and masonry wall buildings that are largely present in the area. Therefore, in possible future eruptions, dynamic pressures of this magnitude would flatten a large urbanised area, where ~700,000 people are currently living. The obtained results give a better definition of both the risk to pyroclastic currents in possible Vesuvio eruptions and provide new guidelines for construction in the neighbouring zones.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods