环渤海地区县域经济发展时空分异研究

以县域为基本研究单元,应用统计分析法和空间分析法,以人均地区生产总值为指标,分析1996—2009年间环渤海地区县域经济的时空分异特征。结果表明,环渤海地区经济实力不断增强,产业结构呈现高级化趋势;县际经济发展水平差距大,部分县域人均GDP处于极端高水平;1996—2009年间,县域人均GDP的绝对差异增大而相对差异波动性缩小,省间差异是区域差异的主要组成部分;人均GDP空间自相关显著,经济发展热点区和冷点区的空间集聚特征增强。基于1996年各县人均GDP及1996—2009年间人均GDP增长差异,将环渤海地区划分为基础好增长较快型、基础中等增长较快型等6种类型。     

上海的GDP一般增长核算与绿色GDP核算

本文引用Barro的增长核算模型和Asheim的绿色GDP核算模型,对上海的经济增长开展了核算研究。研究发现:1)在改革开放之前,上海的经济增长基本上由资本投入、人力资源的有效投入和劳动力投入支持。改革开放以后经济增长得益于技术进步,但是税收政策干扰了这种增长。2)上海市绿色NNP值低于GDP值,GDP值是绿色NNP值的2⁴倍,在20世纪60、70、80年代一直都维持在3倍以上。目前,上海市的GDP与绿色NNP之间的差距缩小到了2倍左右,说明人们对环境污染和资源耗损问题的关注,已体现到上海市的经济发展中。3)在目前阶段,绿色GDP不适合单独作为经济发展的度量指标,但是可以作为衡量经济发展对环境的影响及对资源的损耗和对GDP指标不足的重要补充。     

基于GeoDA的哈大齐工业走廊GDP空间关联性

利用地理空间分析方法和空间分析软件,分析了哈大齐工业走廊2008年各县GDP空间分布状况,包括各县之间GDP水平的空间关联性、各县GDP水平与人口的空间关联性.研究发现:该时期内哈大齐工业走廊各县GDP水平在空间关联性上成正相关,相关系数较小,GDP空间分布并非表现出完全随机性,而是表现出空间相似值之间的空间聚集.GD...     

A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indicators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute (WRI), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries (USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia), and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

城市化进程中生态环境响应模型研究——以西安为例

在建立城市生态环境评价模型,模拟预测城市化过程中引起的土地效益、社会经济发展与生态环境动态变化过程基础上.运用遥感影像解译技术,对城市扩张引起的城市土地利用和土地效益动态变化进行定量分析.采用GIS工具分析城市环境空间分布方式;根据社会福利最大化和绿色GDP(即,GGDP)等理论模拟城市生态环境在不同社会经济情景之下的城市化响应.模型是以西安1996到2006年城市扩张作为案例研究分析,结果表明:在现有的条件下,理论上西安城市扩张最优是在2021;在社会经济不断发展的条件下,城市扩张引起的边际生态环境成本小于平均土地效益时才会增加土地效益;技术进步与创新可降低生态环境成本,使城市化水平提高.     

The geography of tyranny and despair: development indicators and the hypothesis of genetic inevitability of national inequality

Development geography has long sought to understand why inequalities exist and the best ways to address them. Dependency theory sets out an historical rationale for under development based on colonialism and a legacy of developed core and under-developed periphery. Race is relevant in this theory only insofar that Europeans are white and the places they colonised were occupied by people with darker skin colour. There are no innate biological reasons why it happened in that order. However, a new theory for national inequalities proposed by Lynn and Vanhanen in a series of publications makes the case that poorer countries have that status because of a poorer genetic stock rather than an accident of history. They argue that IQ has a genetic basis and IQ is linked to ability. Thus races with a poorer IQ have less ability, and thus national IQ can be positively correlated with performance as measured by an indicator like GDP/capita. Their thesis is one of despair, as little can be done to improve genetic stock significantly other than a programme of eugenics. This paper summarises and critiques the Lynn and Vanhanen hypothesis and the assumptions upon which it is based, and uses this analysis to show how a human desire to simplify in order to manage can be dangerous in development geography. While the attention may naturally be focused on the 'national IQ' variables as a proxy measure of 'innate ability', the assumption of GDP per capita as an indicator of 'success' and 'achievement' is far more readily accepted without criticism. The paper makes the case that the current vogue for indicators, indices and cause–effect can be tyrannical.     

我国经济增长的自组织模型研究

经济系统的复杂性决定了经济变动及影响因素解释的困难性.应用自组织数据挖掘方法,建立一个解释我国GDP增长的自组织模型,同时与用主成分分析方法建立的GDP增长模型进行比较,分析影响我国经济增长的主要因素,并在此基础上提出相应的对策思路.     

DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像中国区域的校正及应用

美国国防气象卫星搭载的业务型线扫描传感器（DMSP/OLS）获取的夜间灯光影像,可客观地反映人类开发建设活动强度,其广泛应用于城市遥感的多个领域。但该数据缺少星上的辐射校正,下载的原始影像数据集不能直接用于研究,需进行区域校正。长时间序列的DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像数据集主要存在2个问题需在校正过程中解决：（1）原始影像数据集中的影像是非连续性的;（2）数据集中的每一期影像都存在着像元DN值饱和的现象。针对这2个问题,本文提出了一种不变目标区域法的影像校正方法,对提取出来的每一期中国区域的夜间灯光影像进行了校正,该校正方法包括相互校正、饱和校正和影像间的连续性校正。最后,为了检验校正方法的合理性与可靠性,本文将校正前后中国夜间灯光影像与GDP和电力消耗值,分别进行回归分析评价表明,校正后的影像更客观合理地反映区域经济发展的差异。     

基于遥感的全国GDP 1km格网的空间化表达

针对资源环境研究领域对空间型社会经济数据的需求,在我国经济社会的区域差异的综合分析基础上,对现有的统计型行政单元主要社会经济发展指标国内生产总值(GDP)进行空间化模拟,建立了统一空间坐标参数、统一数据格式、统一的数据和元数据标准的全国1km格网水平社会经济空间数据库。利用1995年遥感数据建立的1:100000比例尺土地利用格局分布图,综合分析人类活动形成的土地利用状态与GDP大小的空间互动规律,建立影响经济发展的关键因素评估模型,通过一、二、三产业GDP与土地利用类型的空间关联性,分区建立1995年县级GDP和土地利用格局的空间关联度模型库,实现在1km格网的社会经济数据的空间定量模拟。     

基于NPP-VIIRS数据的山东省县级GDP分级空间建模

传统的统计方法对国内生成总值(GDP)进行统计耗时耗力费财。而夜间灯光遥感影像能对人类社会活动进行最直观的反映,为社会经济研究提供了新的思路方法和技术支持。本文以山东省作为研究区域,采用NPP-VIIRS灯光影像数据与山东省137个县级GDP数据进行分级多方式空间建模,以找到两者空间分布的最优规律。试验结果表明总GDP与总灯光亮度值的各级最优拟合优度R^2均在0.9左右。单位面积GDP与平均灯光亮度值的各级拟合优度R^2均在0.85左右。而且通过最优模型进行县级和市级GDP预测精度优于未分级的预测精度。