Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Experimental analysis of reservoir release wave routing in upland boulder bed rivers

Reservoir release wave routing during 33 controlled reservoir releases, along 15 upland boulder bed river channel reaches, on five different regulated rivers were monitored to assess the importance of river channel roughness and reservoir release magnitude on reservoir release wave speeds. Wave speeds varied between 0.52 and 3.01 m s^?1. Reservoir release wave translation, steepening, and attenuation occurred. With high channel roughness values reservoir release wave arrival speed is retarded in comparison to peak stage and wave steepening occurs, but with a reduction in channel roughness reservoir release wave front arrival is accelerated producing attentuation. The threshold between reservoir release wave front attenuation and steepening occurs at a pre-release discharge/channel width of approximately 0.1, an index of channel roughness. The paper also demonstrates, via comparison of observed and calculated reservoir release wave speeds on the River Washburn, Yorkshire, the difficulty of accurately predicting flood wave movement in upland boulder bed channels using existing prediction equations. The calculated values, however, revealed systematic error with pre-release discharge and reservoir release magnitude. Apparently the equations fail to account for the effects of high channel roughness together with pressure gradient forces, induced by rapid rates of stage change on the rising limb of reservoir releases. In order to accurately predict reservoir release wave movement in regulated rivers, this paper demonstrates that hydraulic studies need to be undertaken and pre-release discharges prescribed to determine desired reservoir release wave routing behaviour. Manipulation of the reservoir release pattern at the dam alone, cannot dictate reservoir release wave front form downstream or wave speed.     

Diffusive wave solutions for open channel flows with uniform and concentrated lateral inflow

The diffusive wave equation with inhomogeneous terms representing hydraulics with uniform or concentrated lateral inflow into a river is theoretically investigated in the current paper. All the solutions have been systematically expressed in a unified form in terms of response function or so called K-function. The integration of K-function obtained by using Laplace transform becomes S-function, which is examined in detail to improve the understanding of flood routing characters. The backwater effects usually resulting in the discharge reductions and water surface elevations upstream due to both the downstream boundary and lateral inflow are analyzed. With a pulse discharge in upstream boundary inflow, downstream boundary outflow and lateral inflow respectively, hydrographs of a channel are routed by using the S-functions. Moreover, the comparisons of hydrographs in infinite, semi-infinite and finite channels are pursued to exhibit the different backwater effects due to a concentrated lateral inflow for various channel types.     

Space-time soil wetness variations monitoring by a multi-temporal microwave satellite records analysis

In the last few years, remote sensing observations have become a useful tool for providing hydrological information, including the quantification of the main physical characteristics of the catchment, such as topography and land use, and of its variables, like soil moisture or snow cover. Moreover, satellite data have also been largely used in the framework of hydro-meteorological risk mitigation.Recently, an innovative Soil Wetness Variation Index (SWVI) has been proposed, using data acquired by the microwave radiometer AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) which flies aboard NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellites.SWVI is based on a general approach for multi-temporal satellite data analysis (RAT - Robust AVHRR Techniques). This approach exploits the analysis of long-term multi-temporal satellite records in order to obtain a former characterization of the measured signal, in term of expected value and natural variability, providing a further identification of signal anomalies by an automatic, unsupervised change-detection step. Such an approach has already demonstrated, in several studies carried out on extreme flooding events which occurred in Europe in the past few years, its capability in reducing spurious effects generated by natural/observational noise. In this paper, the proposed approach is applied to the analysis of the flooding event which occurred in Europe (primarily in NW Spain) in June 2000. Results obtained, in terms of reliability as well as efficiency in space-time monitoring of soil wetness variation, are presented. Future prospects, in terms of exportability of the methodology on the new dedicated satellite missions, like ESA-SMOS and NASA-HYDROS, are also discussed.     

Large phreatomagmatic vent complex at Coombs Hills, Antarctica: Wet, explosive initiation of flood basalt volcanism in the Ferrar-Karoo LIP

The Mawson Formation and correlatives in the Transantarctic Mountains and South Africa record an early eruption episode related to the onset of Ferrar-Karoo flood basalt volcanism. Mawson Formation rocks at Coombs Hills comprise mainly (≥80% vol) structureless tuff breccia and coarse lapilli tuff cut by irregular dikes and sills, within a large vent complex (>30 km²). Quenched juvenile fragments of generally low but variable vesicularity, accretionary lapilli and country rock clasts within vent-fill, and pyroclastic density current deposits point to explosive interaction of basalt with groundwater in porous country rock and wet vent filling debris. Metre-scale dikes and pods of coherent basalt in places merge imperceptibly into peperite and then into surrounding breccia. Steeply dipping to sub-vertical depositional contacts juxtapose volcaniclastic rocks of contrasting componentry and grainsize. These sub-vertical tuff breccia zones are inferred to have formed when jets of debris + steam + water passed through unconsolidated vent-filling deposits. These jets of debris may have sometimes breached the surface to form subaerial tephra jets which fed subaerial pyroclastic density currents and fall deposits. Others, however, probably died out within vent fill before reaching the surface, allowing mixing and recycling of clasts which never reached the atmosphere. Most of the ejecta that did escape the debris-filled vents was rapidly recycled as vents broadened via lateral quarrying of country rock and bedded pyroclastic vent-rim deposits, which collapsed along the margins into individual vents. The unstratified, poorly sorted deposits comprising most of the complex are capped by tuff, lapilli tuff and tuff breccia beds inferred to have been deposited on the floor of the vent complex by pyroclastic density currents. Development of the extensive Coombs Hills vent-complex involved interaction of large volumes of magma and water. We infer that recycling of water, as well as recycling of pyroclasts, was important in maintaining water supply for phreatomagmatic interactions even when aquifer rock in the vent walls lay far from eruption sites as a consequence of vent-complex widening. The proportion of recycled water increased with vent-complex size in the same way that the proportion of recycled tephra did. Though water recycling leaves no direct rock record, the volcaniclastic deposits within the vent complex show through their lithofacies/structural architecture, lithofacies characteristics, and particle properties clear evidence for extensive and varied recycling of material as the complex evolved. Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan     

Pahoehoe flows from the central Paraná Continental Flood Basalts

Inflated and compound pahoehoe flows have been identified within the central Paraná Continental Flood Basalts based upon their morphology, surface features, and internal zonation. Pahoehoe flow features have been studied at five localities in the western portion of Paraná State, Brazil: Ponte Queimada, Toledo, Rio Quitéria, Matelandia and Cascavel. We have interpreted the newly recognized flow features using concepts of Hawaiian pahoehoe formation and emplacement that have been previously applied to the Columbia River Basalt and Deccan Plateau. Surface features and/or internal structure typical from pahoehoe lavas are observed in all studied areas and features like inflation clefts, squeeze-ups, breakouts, and P-type lobes with two levels of pipe vesicles are indicative of inflation in these flows. The thinner, compound pahoehoe flows are predominantly composed of P-type lobes and probably emerged at the end of large inflated flows on shallow slopes. The presence of vesicular cores in the majority of compound lobes and the common occurrence of segregation structures suggests high water content in the pahoehoe lavas from the central PCFB. More volcanological studies are necessary to determinate the rheology of lavas and refine emplacement models.Editorial responsibility: C. Kilburn     

A cost–benefit appraisal of coastal managed realignment policy

European coasts are coming under increasing threat as a result of climate change from erosion and flooding. While coastal defences such as sea walls have been constructed since Roman times to protect human settlements from the sea, it is now increasingly recognised that these defences are unsustainable. The security provided by ‘hard’ engineered defences has encouraged development on the coast, and the defences themselves have led to the loss of intertidal habitat and the natural protection it provides.An alternative to maintaining ‘hard’ defences (hold-the-line) to protect land from increasing sea levels is managed realignment, where the engineered defences are deliberately breached. By allowing the coastline to recede to a new line of defence further inland, intertidal habitat is created providing natural protection from flooding and erosion.The study evaluates the economic efficiency—using cost–benefit analysis—of various managed realignment scenarios compared to a strategy of holding-the-line within the Humber estuary in North-east England. The results of this analysis show that managed realignment can be more economically efficient than holding-the-line over a sufficiently long time period—generally greater than 25 years. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that results are more sensitive to the amount and value of intertidal habitat generated than they are to the amount and value of carbon stored by this habitat. Cost–benefit analysis is viewed as one component of a wider policy appraisal process within integrated coastal management.     

淮河流域洪涝变化吸引子维数研究

淮河流域洪涝序列的功率谱表现出了较好的混沌谱特征,这是序列呈分形结构的内在原因。洪涝序列及其不同平滑序列的关联维数表明,序列平滑程度越大,关联维数越小,关联维数反映了序列所在系统的层次,是系统结构复杂性的重要量度,是 系统建模所需独立变量的控制参数。要恰当地描述淮河流域洪涝发生系数,需构造至少５个状态变量的动力学系统。     

Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.