藻类生长预测模型的比较研究——以洪湖水体为例

根据洪湖2014—2019年水质及藻类监测数据,运用综合营养状态指数法评价了丰、平、枯3个时期的营养状态.在此基础上运用逐步回归分析法确定影响藻类生长的显著因子,并根据不同水量不同营养状态细分9种情形对藻类生长做回归预测分析,同时运用BP神经网络模型对回归预测的结果进行比较验证.结果表明:洪湖丰、平水期以蓝藻门为主,枯水期以硅藻门为主;湖泊的营养状态处于中度富营养与轻度富营养之间.分析各时期藻种生物量与影响因子的相关性,发现丰水期控制因子有水温、COD_Mn和透明度;平水期和枯水期控制因子有水温、总氮、总磷.以2014—2018年数据逐步回归分析得出枯水期+中营养和枯水期+轻度富营养决定系数较低,其余7种时期决定系数均在0.5以上,说明逐步回归并不适用于所有时期.使用2014—2018年的数据进行神经网络训练和验证,2019年的数据进行预测,比较BP神经网络与逐步回归的均方根误差发现全年预测时BP神经网络效果更好;枯水期+中营养和枯水期+轻度富营养逐步回归效果较好,逐步回归的均方根误差仅为1600～4000;丰水期和平水期2种方法预测效果相当.合理地选择预测模型能为湖泊水华做出预警,控制显著变量可以达到防治水华污染的效果.     

北京官厅水库轮虫群落结构与水体富营养化状况

于2007年1-12月对官厅水库上游(北京段)进行调查,利用非生物环境因子对水体的营养状况进行了评价,并通过种类组成、优势种、生物量及多样性指数等指标探讨了轮虫群落结构与水体富营养化的关系.结果表明,官厅水库(北京段)已达到了富营养的水平,在轮虫的种类组成中,10个富营养化的指示种类大部分都有出现,其中螺形龟甲轮虫(Keratella cochlearis)和针簇多肢轮虫(Polyarthra trigla)为优势种;轮虫密度均在1000ind./L以上,生物量在1mg/L以上,轮虫的密度、生物量的季节分布与水温显著正相关(P0.05),水平分布与水体的营养状况显著正相关(P0.05),垂直分布没有明显的规律性;轮虫多样性指数较低,但与水体营养水平显著相关(P0.05).证明轮虫群落结构与水体富营养化之间存在着密切的关系,富营养化是导致轮虫群落结构变化的主要动因.     

EVALUATION OF WATER AND SEDIMENT QUALITIES AT RIVER MOUTHS IN THE HAIHE RIVER SYSTEM

Water and sediment qualities are studied by analyzing samples taking from the mouths of the Haihe, Duliujian, New Ziya and Beipai rivers in the Haihe river basin in north China in 2005 and 2001, in order to find the changes of water and sediment pollutions. The concentrations of heavy metals, arsenic, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) are analyzed and results have been compared for the two times. The in-situ measurement for Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Sediment Oxygen Demand (SOD) rates were carried at the Haihe and Duliujian river mouths in 2006. The results show that the waters of the 4 river mouths are still seriously polluted, though much improved in the case of the Haihe and Duliujian rivers. The main pollutants are TP and TN in the New Ziya and Beipai rivers and mercury (Hg) at all 4 river mouths. Compared with those in 2001, the concentrations of almost all metals and arsenic in the 4 river mouths have decreased. Water quality at Haihe and Duliujian shows an improving trend, while the water quality at Beipai is similar to that of 2001. In contrast, water at the New Ziya river mouth is more severely polluted. The sediments in the 4 river mouths are not seriously polluted by heavy metals but are polluted by nitrogen and phosphorus. Most of the pollutant contents in the sediments show little change between 2001 and 2005. The in-situ DO and SOD measurement shows that the waters at the Haihe river mouth is in the state of oxygen depletion, and SOD is important consumer of DO at the river mouths. The overall analysis shows that increasing water pollution and eutrophication in waters far from cities are ongoing causes of concern.     

富营养深水水库底栖动物群落与浮游生物相关性分析

底栖动物和浮游生物通过食物网发生复杂的交互作用,是水库生态系统物质循环的重要组分.南湾水库和汤浦水库均为存在富营养化现象的深水水库,具有较长时间的水温分层期.本文选取这两座供水水库为对象,比较其水体营养状态、底栖动物的群落结构、现存量和多样性.通过群落状态指数(IICS)定量评估底栖动物群落状态,并采用PLS模型、Spearman秩相关以及回归图探讨浮游生物各类群密度与IICS的关系.研究结果显示,南湾水库富营养程度高于汤浦水库,寡毛类在南湾水库占据优势地位,摇蚊类在汤浦水库数量上占优.南湾水库以收集者为主,其数量占比远高于汤浦水库.深水水库通常存在较强的热分层,富营养化会加重水库底部的缺氧或厌氧状态,导致底栖动物遭受周期性的缺氧扰动,影响种类多样性和现存量,改变浮游生物类群与底栖动物群落的相关性,因此底栖动物群落与浮游生物的相关性能够提供判断水库富营养化程度的重要信号,进而为水库管理方提供更多有价值的参考信息.