第二亚欧大陆桥的构成及其国际环境

本文将第二亚欧大陆桥描述为欧洲联盟网与中国东部网之间的连接,据此描绘了欧洲联盟网和中国东部网的构成,分析了亚洲、尤其是中亚地区围绕交通运输的国际合作形势和生态环境状况,阐述了泛欧洲交通与环境合作的内容和进程.     

基于GIS的北京山区优势林分生态位分析

应用生态位理论,以北京山区森林资源为研究对象,分析优势林分的空间分布及其资源利用和环境适应能力的差异。基于GIS方法,建立优势林分空间分布数据库以及资源梯度信息数据库,分别采用Levins公式和Smith公式,在水分、热量、光照和土壤质量4维环境因子梯度上测定了研究区8个优势林分的生态位宽度,采用Pianka公式测定生态位重叠。结果表明:Smith公式考虑资源可利用性,得到的生态位宽度更能客观地反映优势林分资源空间利用程度;研究区各优势林分重叠度普遍较大,反映了对环境要求的相似性及资源共享的趋势性。     

Use of local and global maps of forest canopy height and aboveground biomass to enhance local estimates of biomass in miombo woodlands in Tanzania

Field surveys are often a primary source of aboveground biomass (AGB) data, but plot-based estimates of parameters related to AGB are often not sufficiently precise, particularly not in tropical countries. Remotely sensed data may complement field data and thus help to increase the precision of estimates and circumvent some of the problems with missing sample observations in inaccessible areas. Here, we report the results of a study conducted in a 15,867 km² area in the dry miombo woodlands of Tanzania, to quantify the contribution of existing canopy height and biomass maps to improving the precision of canopy height and AGB estimates locally. A local and a global height map and three global biomass maps, and a probability sample of 513 inventory plots were subject to analysis. Model-assisted sampling estimators were used to estimate mean height and AGB across the study area using the original maps and then with the maps calibrated with local inventory plots. Large systematic map errors – positive or negative – were found for all the maps, with systematic errors as great as 60–70 %. The maps contributed nothing or even negatively to the precision of mean height and mean AGB estimates. However, after being calibrated locally, the maps contributed substantially to increasing the precision of both mean height and mean AGB estimates, with relative efficiencies (variance of the field-based estimates relative to the variance of the map-assisted estimates) of 1.3–2.7 for the overall estimates. The study, although focused on a relatively small area of dry tropical forests, illustrates the potential strengths and weaknesses of existing global forest height and biomass maps based on remotely sensed data and universal prediction models. Our results suggest that the use of regional or local inventory data for calibration can substantially increase the precision of map-based estimates and their applications in assessing forest carbon stocks for emission reduction programs and policy and financial decisions.     

夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海温和欧亚陆面热力异常的可能联系

基于1979~2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异特征及其可能的外强迫因子。研究发现夏季亚洲200 hPa纬向风异常EOF第二模态（方差贡献为16.4%）主要表现出了急流纬向非对称的空间异常形态,反映了西亚和东亚区域急流南北偏移的反位相变化。通过进一步的诊断分析,我们发现急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海表温度（简称海温）和欧亚陆面热力异常可能存在一定的联系。北大西洋三极型海温异常会激发出向下游传播的异常波列,夏季该波列在欧亚大陆上空的异常环流中心与急流纬向非对称相关的异常环流中心对应一致,其中东欧平原的异常反气旋和巴尔喀什湖附近的异常气旋对西亚急流变化存在影响,东亚地区急流的变化与贝加尔湖北部异常气旋和贝加尔湖南部的异常反气旋有关。对比欧亚土壤湿度关键区内垂直环流,陆面热力异常可能会改变局地环流进而影响急流变异,且这种影响存在区域差异。     

欧亚大陆冬季雪深的时空演变特征及其影响因子分析

利用美国冰雪资料中心(National Snow and Ice Data Center)提供的前苏联1948~1994年逐日积雪深度资料,定义了冬季雪深增量的概念,探讨了欧亚大陆秋末雪深、冬季雪深、冬季雪深增量的时空演变规律,通过比较分析三者的异常变化特征,揭示了三者之间可能存在的联系。经验正交函数分解(EOF)结果表明:欧亚大陆冬季雪深、冬季雪深增量的第一模态的空间分布特征均为大致以50°N为界的南北反相变化,欧亚大陆北部的积雪深度和冬季雪深增量都呈现出一致性的变化趋势;两者对应的时间序列均反映了显著的年代际变化特征,且年代际转变均发生在20世纪70年代中期前后。第二模态则呈现出欧亚大陆东、西部反相的偶极型空间分布特征。进一步分析表明,欧亚大陆秋末雪深无论从空间分布还是时间演变来看与冬季雪深几乎不存在相关性。欧亚大陆冬季雪深变化主要是冬季雪深增量影响所致,与秋末雪深无关。     

Terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks in China, 1981―2000

Using China's ground observations, e.g., forest inventory, grassland resource, agricultural statistics, climate, and satellite data, we estimate terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks for China's major biomes between 1981 and 2000. The main results are in the following: (1) Forest area and forest biomass carbon (C) stock increased from 116.5×106 ha and 4.3 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C) in the early 1980s to 142.8×106 ha and 5.9 Pg C in the early 2000s, respectively. Forest biomass carbon density increased form 36.9 Mg C/ha (1 Mg C = 106 g C) to 41.0 Mg C/ha, with an annual carbon sequestration rate of 0.075 Pg C/a. Grassland, shrub, and crop biomass sequestrate carbon at annual rates of 0.007 Pg C/a, 0.014―0.024 Pg C/a, and 0.0125―0.0143 Pg C/a, respectively. (2) The total terrestrial vegetation C sink in China is in a range of 0.096―0.106 Pg C/a between 1981 and 2000, accounting for 14.6%―16.1% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by China's industry in the same period. In addition, soil carbon sink is estimated at 0.04―0.07 Pg C/a. Accordingly, carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems (vegetation and soil) offsets 20.8%―26.8% of its industrial CO2 emission for the study period. (3) Considerable uncertainties exist in the present study, especially in the estimation of soil carbon sinks, and need further intensive investigation in the future.     

Atmospheric Precursors of and Response to Anomalous Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP5 Models

This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents–Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.     

2012年欧亚寒冷天气过程与北极涛动异常活动的联系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CPC逐日北极涛动(AO)指数资料,结合近30年欧亚地区地面气温年际异常变化的可能机理,分析了AO异常波动对2012年欧亚地区严寒天气过程的影响。结果表明,AO发生负异常波动对2012年1—2月欧亚地区异常寒冷天气起到至关重要的作用。AO在12月为正异常波动,次年1—2月则呈现负异常波动,其中1月中下旬至2月中旬的负异常波动过程比较显著。在AO负异常影响下,极涡面积增大,冷空气活动加强,中纬度纬向环流减弱而经向环流增强,造成冷、暖空气交换加剧,极地冷空气南下入侵到中纬度地区,从而导致欧亚大陆异常寒冷天气;同时,由北大西洋及地中海北上的暖湿气流,在遭遇冷空气阻碍后给西欧和南欧一些地区带来了大面积的雨雪天气。     

北极涛动、极涡活动异常对北半球欧亚大陆冬季气温的影响

利用1951-2012年NCEP/NCAR全球月平均500 hPa高度场、气温场等再分析资料,北极涛动（AO）指数,北半球及其4个分区的极涡指数等资料,分析极涡和AO对北半球特别是欧亚大陆冬季气温异常分布的影响。北半球极涡面积指数与北半球气温相关场呈由北向南的“+、-”分布,显著正相关中心位于极区,显著负相关中心位于欧亚大陆中高纬度地区;AO指数与气温的相关场分布与此反位相。极涡各分区面积指数体现与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征,尤其是亚洲极涡面积指数比AO的相关区域更偏向亚洲和中国东部及沿海地区,能表征亚洲大陆冬季风向中低纬度爆发的某些特征。2006年以来AO指数呈较明显的下降趋势,北半球、亚洲区极涡面积指数呈显著的上升趋势,这是有利于欧亚大陆近几年连续冬季气温异常偏低的年代际背景;2009-2011年北半球欧亚大陆冬季大范围低温事件,不仅与冬季AO负位相明显变强有关（2011年除外）,与北半球以及亚洲区极涡面积指数偏大联系更为密切,亦表明该区域冬季变冷的自然变率明显增强。     

欧亚冬季雪盖异常及其与ENSO循环的关系

利用 NOAA- NESDIS提供的 1 973— 2 0 0 0年北半球雪盖面积资料 ,研究了欧亚冬季雪盖的时空特征 ,发现欧亚大陆中高纬地区积雪有明显的整体性分布特征 ,而50°N以南的冬季积雪随纬度的变率较大 ;欧亚大陆中高纬地区冬季积雪呈东西反位相分布。利用小波分析发现 ,冬季欧亚积雪具有显著的 3～ 4 a周期。最后指出 ,欧亚积雪异常引起的下垫面热力异常可能为次年 El Nino事件的爆发提供触发条件。