RAINFALL CHANGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR BELG HARVEST IN SOUTH WOLLO, ETHIOPIA

Most farmers in the Ethiopian highlands depend on rain‐fed agriculture. Some areas have the favourable situation of having two rainy seasons, Belg (February‐May) and the long rainy season Kiremt (June‐October), which is the case in some parts of South Wollo. Tef (Eragrostis tef) is the staple crop that farmers prefer to grow and the 90‐day variety is suitable for growing during the short rainy season. One out of eight Ethiopians lives in tef potential areas which have Belg rainfall. The aim in this study is to analyse rainfall variation in South Wollo, in particular the area east of the small town of Hayk, and to study its effect on the ability to grow tef during the Belg season. Results from interviews showed that a more difficult farming situation had emerged during the past 40 years, largely due to deterioration of physical resources such as rainfall. Rainfall is analysed by comparing daily rainfall data from four stations in two periods, 1963 to 1982 and 1984 to 2003, for changes in totals, seasonal distribution and variability. Coefficient of variance, rainy days, rainfall intensity and dry spells were analysed. Results from this study show that there have been minor rainfall changes but greater rainfall variability. During fieldwork key informants were asked if they were able to harvest tef during the past nine years, a period that has been used in a model of rainfall influence on tef cultivation during the Belg season. In both 20–year periods, farmers were able to grow tef every second year. In spite of a greater variability in rainfall the farmers proved their knowledge and flexibility and were able to harvest tef in the same number of years during both periods.     

The implications of ignoring smallholder agriculture in climate-financed forestry projects: empirical evidence from two REDD+ pilot projects

ABSTRACT

Changes in agricultural practices can play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation by reducing the need for land use change as one of the biggest sources of GHG emissions, and by enabling carbon sequestration in farmers’ fields. Expansion of smallholder and commercial agriculture is often one of the main driving forces behind deforestation and forest degradation. However, mitigation programmes such as REDD+ are geared towards conservation efforts in the forestry sector without prominently taking into account smallholder agricultural interests in project design and implementation. REDD+ projects often build on existing re- and afforestation projects without major changes in their principles, interests and assumptions. Informed by case study research and interviews with national and international experts, we illustrate with examples from Ethiopia and Indonesia how REDD+ projects are implemented, how they fail to adequately incorporate the demands of smallholder farmers and how this leads to a loss of livelihoods and diminishing interest in participating in REDD+ by local farming communities. The study shows how the conservation-based benefits and insecure funding base in REDD+ projects do not compensate for the contraction in livelihoods from agriculture. Combined with exclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms, this results in an increased pressure on forest resources, diverging from the principal objective of REDD+. We note a gap between the REDD+ narratives at international level (i.e. coupling development with a climate agenda) and the livelihood interests of farming communities on the ground. We argue that without incorporating agricultural interests and a review of financial incentives in the design of future climate finance mechanisms, objectives of both livelihood improvements and GHG emission reductions will be missed.

Key policy insights

• REDD+ is positioned as a promising tool to meet climate, conservation and development targets. However, these expectations are not being met in practice as the interests of smallholder farmers are poorly addressed.

• REDD+ policy developers and implementers need more focus on understanding the interests and dynamics of smallholder agriculturalists to enable inclusive, realistic and long-lasting projects.

• For REDD+ to succeed, funders need to consider how to better ensure long-term livelihood security for farming communities.

     

The eastern industrial zone in Ethiopia: Catalyst for development?

In 2000, China agreed to share with African countries its experience in the field of investment promotion relating to the establishment and management of special economic zones. The Eastern Industry Zone was subsequently established. Of the various zones being built in Africa, Ethiopia's perhaps represents one of the biggest challenges to both the Chinese developers and the host government alike. Utilising insights from evolutionary economic geography and the work of Albert Hirschman, this article seeks to analyse the progress thus far in the Ethiopian SEZ. Spatially discrete, unfocused in terms of clustering and with few linkages to the wider economy, what impact, if any, the development of this zone will have on Ethiopia's structural transformation is discussed. The implications for Ethiopia's wider investment in industrial parks as part of its developmental state project is also drawn out.     

A socio-hydrological approach for incorporating gender into biophysical models and implications for water resources research

Men and women interact with water resources and landscapes in different ways, and there are frequent criticisms that little research is undertaken across disciplines to address this issue. Biophysical scientists in particular struggle with how to integrate “gendered” water uses into models that are necessarily based on prevailing laws and equations that describe the movement of water through the hydrological cycle, independent of social constructs. We explore the challenges faced in developing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research approaches and then present a simple yet innovative socio-hydrological approach using participatory three-dimensional maps. As a case study, we describe undertaking this process in Ethiopia where two three-dimensional maps (men's and women's) were separately generated to represent the same 20 km² landscape. Mapping results indicated important distinctions in how men and women view landscapes with regard to the number and types of ecosystem services identified. For example, only women identified holy water sites along streams, while men identified twice as many sacred trees on the landscape. There was a clear focus and detailed knowledge about soils among participants in both groups. Maps developed as part of this exercise were successfully used as the principal land use input for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and results indicate that this is a valid strategy that enhances scientific knowledge and understanding of overall landscapes and ultimately adds value to research for development questions.     

Revisiting lake sediment budgets: How the calculation of lake lifetime is strongly data and method dependent

Lake sedimentation has a fundamental impact on lake lifetime. In this paper, we show how sensitive calculation of the latter is to the quality of data available and assumptions made during analysis. Based on the collection of a large new dataset, we quantify the sediment masses (1) mobilized on the hillslopes draining towards Lake Tana (Ethiopia), (2) stored in the floodplains, (3) transported into the lake, (4) deposited in the lake and (5) delivered out from the lake so as to establish a sediment budget. In 2012–2013, suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge measurements were made at 13 monitoring stations, including two lake outlets. Altogether, 4635 SSC samples were collected and sediment rating curves that account for land cover conditions and rainfall seasonality were established for the 11 river stations, and mean monthly SSC was calculated for the outlets. Effects of the floodplain on rivers' sediment yield (SY) were investigated using measurements at both sides of the floodplains. SY from ungauged rivers was assessed using a model that includes catchment area and rainfall, whereas bedload and direct sediment input from lake shores were estimated. As a result, the gross annual SY was c. 39.55 (± 0.15) Mt, dominantly from Gilgel Abay and Gumara Rivers. The 2.57 (± 0.17) Mt sediment deposited in floodplains indicate that the floodplains serve as an important sediment sink. Moreover, annually c. 1.09 Mt of sediment leaves the lake through the two outlets. Annual sediment deposition in the lake was c. 36.97 (± 0.22) Mt and organic matter accumulation was 2.15 Mt, with a mean sediment trapping efficiency of 97%. Furthermore, SSC and SY are generally higher at the beginning of the rainy season because soils in cultivated fields are bare and loose due to frequent ploughing and seedbed preparation. Later in the season, increased crop and vegetation cover lead to a decrease in sediment production. Based on the established sediment budget with average rainfall, the lifetime of Lake Tana was estimated as 764 to 1032 years, which is shorter than what was anticipated in earlier studies. The sedimentation rate of Lake Tana (11.7 ± 0.1 kg m^?2 yr^?1) is in line with the sedimentation rates of larger lakes in the world, like Lake Dongting and Lake Kivu. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in water availability in the Upper Blue Nile basin under the representative concentration pathways scenario

Climatic and hydrological changes will likely be intensified in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin by the effects of global warming. The extent of such effects for representative concentration pathways (RCP) climate scenarios is unknown. We evaluated projected changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration and related impacts on water availability in the UBN under the RCP4.5 scenario. We used dynamically downscaled outputs from six global circulation models (GCMs) with unprecedented spatial resolution for the UBN. Systematic errors of these outputs were corrected and followed by runoff modelling by the HBV (Hydrologiska ByrånsVattenbalansavdelning) model, which was successfully validated for 17 catchments. Results show that the UBN annual rainfall amount will change by ?2.8 to 2.7% with a likely increase in annual potential evapotranspiration (in 2041–2070) for the RCP4.5 scenario. These changes are season dependent and will result in a likely decline in streamflow and an increase in soil moisture deficit in the basin.     

The Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River

The Upper Blue Nile river basin is the largest in Ethiopia in terms of volume of discharge, second largest in terms of area, and contributes over 50 per cent of the long-term river flow of the Main Nile. This paper provides a review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology in the source region of the Blue Nile-the central Ethiopian Highlands. Annual rainfall over the basin decreases from the south-west (>2000 mm) to the north-east (around 1000 mm), with about 70 per cent occurring between June and September. A basin-wide time series of annual rainfall constructed from 11 gauges for the period 1900 to 1998 has a mean of 1421millimetres, minimum in 1913 (1148 mm) and maximum in 1903 (1757 mm). Rainfall over the basin showed a marked decrease between the mid-1960s and the late 1980s and dry years show a degree of association with low values of the Southern Oscillation Index (Sol). The October to February dry season in 1997/98 was the wettest on record and responsible for widespread flooding across Ethiopia and also parts of Somalia and Kenya. Available river flow records, which are sparse and of limited duration, are presented for the Blue Nile and its tributaries upstream of the border with Sudan. Runoff over the basin amounts to 45.9 cubic kilometres (equivalent to 1456 m₃s₋₁) discharge, or 261 millimetre depth (1961–1990), a runoff ratio of 18 per cent. Between 1900 and 1997 annual river flow has ranged from 20.6 cubic kilometres (1913) to 79.0 cubic kilometres (1909), and the lowest decade-mean flow was 37.9 cubic kilometres from 1978 to 1987. Annual river flow, like rainfall, shows a strong association with the SOI     

Experimental and Thermodynamic Constraints on the Sulphur Yield of Peralkaline and Metaluminous Silicic Flood Eruptions

Many basaltic flood provinces are characterized by the existenceof voluminous amounts of silicic magmas, yet the role of thesilicic component in sulphur emissions associated with trapactivity remains poorly known. We have performed experimentsand theoretical calculations to address this issue. The meltsulphur content and fluid/melt partitioning at saturation witheither sulphide or sulphate or both have been experimentallydetermined in three peralkaline rhyolites, which are a majorcomponent of some flood provinces. Experiments were performedat 150 MPa, 800–900°C, fO₂ in the range NNO –2 to NNO + 3 and under water-rich conditions. The sulphur contentis strongly dependent on the peralkalinity of the melt, in additionto fO₂, and reaches 1000 ppm at NNO + 1 in the most stronglyperalkaline composition at 800°C. At all values of fO₂,peralkaline melts can carry 5–20 times more sulphur thantheir metaluminous equivalents. Mildly peralkaline compositionsshow little variation in fluid/melt sulphur partitioning withchanging fO₂ (D_S 270). In the most peralkaline melt, D_S risessharply at fO₂ > NNO + 1 to values of >500. The partitioncoefficient increases steadily for S_bulk between 1 and 6 wt% but remains about constant for S_bulk between 0·5 and1 wt %. At bulk sulphur contents lower than 4 wt %, a temperatureincrease from 800 to 900°C decreases D_S by 10%. These results,along with (1) thermodynamic calculations on the behaviour ofsulphur during the crystallization of basalt and partial meltingof the crust and (2) recent experimental constraints on sulphursolubility in metaluminous rhyolites, show that basalt fractionationcan produce rhyolitic magmas having much more sulphur than rhyolitesderived from crustal anatexis. In particular, hot and dry metaluminoussilicic magmas produced by melting of dehydrated lower crustare virtually devoid of sulphur. In contrast, peralkaline rhyolitesformed by crystal fractionation of alkali basalt can concentrateup to 90% of the original sulphur content of the parental magmas,especially when the basalt is CO₂-rich. On this basis, we estimatethe amounts of sulphur potentially released to the atmosphereby the silicic component of flood eruptive sequences. The peralkalineEthiopian and Deccan rhyolites could have produced 10¹⁷ and10¹⁸ g of S, respectively, which are comparable amounts to publishedestimates for the basaltic activity of each province. In contrast,despite similar erupted volumes, the metaluminous Paraná–Etendekasilicic eruptives could have injected only 4·6 x 10¹⁵g of S in the atmosphere. Peralkaline flood sequences may thushave greater environmental effects than those of metaluminousaffinity, in agreement with evidence available from mass extinctionsand oceanic anoxic events. KEY WORDS: silicic flood eruptions; sulphur; experiment; Ethiopia; Deccan