云南牛波金矿采场滑塌沉降分析与稳定计算

通过对云南牛波金矿采场工程两年来的滑塌沉降观测,研究滑塌沉降与开挖边坡坡角的关系,推导出采场边坡稳定角,估算滑塌体的最大沉降量与位置。指导采场工程施工和矿山安全生产。     

雷达测雨及其在水文水资源中的应用研究进展

在回顾国内外雷达网建设和在水文水资源学中发挥重要作用的基础上,着重对国内外的雷达降水的估测算法、雷达临近降水预报和雷达测雨信息在水文模型中的应用研究进行了探讨和分析,并就未来雷达技术应用于水文水资源学的研究进行了展望。     

抗差估计在粗差探测及平差计算中的应用

常规的粗差深测技术，不仅辅助计算工作量大，而且将粗差探测与平差计算分两步进行。本文根据抗差估计原理，通过对观测值附加粗差的办法，制订不同的方案，分别进行抗差估计和ＬＳ估计。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Use of Scale Recursive Estimation for assimilation of precipitation data from TRMM (PR and TMI) and NEXRAD

The paper shows an application of Scale Recursive Estimation (SRE) used to assimilate rainfall rates estimated during a storm event from three remote sensing devices. These are the TMI radiometer and the PR radar, carried on board of the TRMM satellite and the KNQA Memphis Weather Surveillance radar, belonging to the NEXRAD network, each one providing rain rate estimates at a different spatial scale. The variability of rain rate process in scales is modeled as a multiplicative random cascade, including spatial intermittence. The observational noise in the estimates is modeled according to a multiplicative error. System estimation, including process and observational noise, is carried out using Maximum Likelihood Estimation implemented by a scale recursive Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. As a result, new rainfall rate estimates are obtained that feature decreased estimation error as compared to those coming from each device alone. The performance of the SRE-EM approach is compared with that of the latest methods proposed for data fusion of multisensor estimates. The proposed approach improves the current methods adopted for SRE and provides an alternative for data fusion in the field of precipitation.     

遥感估算水稻产量Ⅱ.用光谱数据和陆地卫星图像估算水稻产量

本文介绍了采用更系统的生物学方法,根据水稻在整个生长期的叶面积指数轨线,按叶面积指数的一次测量值,结合气象和光谱数据及陆地卫星MSS图像,估算大面积水稻产量的方法。 在产量与总截获的关系中,叶面积指数是最重要的参量之一。文中重点分析了由水稻在MSS波段内的光谱数据构成的绿度指数和Suits模式估算叶面积指数的结果。表明,用Suits模式计算的叶面积指数有较高的相关系数和较低的剩余标准差。并用这个方法计算了不同田块的叶面积指数,再根据这些数据和MSS图像建立关系。本文比较了卫星数据和多种绿度指数的关系,认为垂直植被指数(PVI)是估算叶面积指数的最好参量,因为它消除了土壤背景的影响,并用它求出了大面积水稻的叶面积指数分布。再根据已建立的叶面积指数轨线和作物截获的有效光合辐射(TIPAR)关系,计算了TIPAR,编制了产置分布图。文章分析了计算结果,并以1983年的例子进一步讨论了该方法的适用性。结果表明,预测的水稻产量和实测产量间的相关系数为0.9左右。     

海城市南台镇地震经济损失预测与人员伤亡的估计

以各类房屋地震易损性分析结果为基础,结合各类房屋平均造价、室内固定资产和 室内停留人数的调查资料。用地震造成经济损失预测方法和人员伤亡经验公式,进行经济损 失预测和人员伤亡评估．最终给出在地震烈度ＶＩ至Ｘ度下的经济损失值和人员伤亡数．     

华南沿海断块构造近期活动幅度和速率的估算

按既定的原则对华南沿海的断块构造区进行了划分。根据可大体确定时代的构造地貌面或沉积物;已测定~(14)C年代数据的指相样品和地壳形变测量资料,分别估算了第四纪各时期以来,晚更新世晚期以来和近40a以来各断块活动的幅度和速率。尽管所得的只是平均的最小值,但在新构造研究的应用方面,仍有实际意义,这类研究也有助于理论认识的提高。     

Network Density Estimation: A GIS Approach for Analysing Point Patterns in a Network Space

Human activities and more generally the phenomena related to human behaviour take place in a network‐constrained subset of the geographical space. These phenomena can be expressed as locations having their positions configured by a road network, as address points with street numbers. Although these events are considered as points on a network, point pattern analysis and the techniques implemented in a GIS environment generally consider events as taking place in a uniform space, with distance expressed as Euclidean and over a homogeneous and isotropic space. Network‐spatial analysis has developed as a research agenda where the attention is drawn towards point pattern analytical techniques applied to a space constrained by a road network. Little attention has been put on first order properties of a point pattern (i.e. density) in a network space, while mainly second order analysis such as nearest neighbour and K‐functions have been implemented for network configurations of the geographical space. In this article, a method for examining clusters of human‐related events on a network, called Network Density Estimation (NDE), is implemented using spatial statistical tools and GIS packages. The method is presented and compared to conventional first order spatial analytical techniques such as Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). Network Density Estimation is tested using the locations of a sample of central, urban activities associated with bank and insurance company branches in the central areas of two midsize European cities, Trieste (Italy) and Swindon (UK).     

广州人为热初步估算及敏感性分析

考虑了工业、交通和生活三种人为热排放源,利用广州市工业和生活能源消耗量、汽车保有量、主干道车流量等数据,估算出广州人为热日变化排放通量,全天平均排放通量411 W〖DK〗·m-2,最大排放通量出现在11时,为723 W ·m-2,其中工业排放占总排放量686%。利用耦合到WRF中的单层城市冠层模式(WRF/UCM),对人为热作用进行敏感性试验,包括无人为热、无日变化人为热、有日变化人为热、人为热排放通量翻倍四种方案。结果显示,方案之间冠层感热通量的差异与人为热设置的差异大致相等。试验方案之间冠层内气温差异较小,单倍人为热与双倍人为热的最大差值约只有02℃。另外,人为热使湍流得到发展,双倍人为热比单倍人为热湍流动能增加约01~04 m2 ·s-2。且人为热对白天城市边界层湍涡有增强作用,添加单倍人为热后使气流垂直速度最大增加可达01 m ·s-1,使垂直混合加强。有日变化的人为热对热岛强度的贡献在中午时最大,单倍人为热的平均贡献率159%,双倍人为热为228%;而无日变化的人为热在凌晨时贡献最大,平均贡献率149%。