白噪声中f~(-2)随机过程的最优估计

从功率谱的角度分析了白噪声中f-2随机过程的最优估计问题，推导了线性估计方法的精度极限，并通过对若干线性估计方法的精度进行分析和比较，得到了一些有意义的结论。     

Salt crystallization in pores: quantification and estimation of damage

The objective of this study is to understand and predict the alteration of porous rock by crystallization of salts. Samples of different rocks have been tested according to the EN 12370 standard test. Two parameters are proposed to evaluate the alteration of a rock during these tests. The alteration index AI represents the cycle in which the first damages occur. The alteration velocity AV represents the alteration rate at the end of the experiment, when the decay has become regular. These parameters can be estimated with the help of a microstructural study of the rocks. The most relevant intrinsic parameters of the stones for this estimation are capillary coefficient, evaporation coefficient, tensile strength and P-waves velocity. An evaluation of the alteration pattern is also proposed depending on the eventual heterogeneities and anisotropies of the rocks. The influence of the dimension and shape of the samples is also discussed.     

雄安新区剪切波速剖面VS30估算模型研究

本文基于雄安新区起步区区域性地震安全性评价工程435个钻孔剖面数据,选取其中300个钻孔剖面进行回归分析,利用剩余的135个钻孔剖面数据进行模型可靠性检验。研究结果表明,当钻孔剖面深度小于15 m时,Boore等模型明显低估了V_S30;当深度小于10 m时,本研究中对数线性模型、对数二次模型、对数三次模型存在约3%的低估现象;对数三次模型相对误差、残差标准差均较小,因此,对数三次模型更适用于估算雄安新区缺乏钻孔资料或钻孔剖面深度未达30 m的 V_S30。     

GPS／BeiDou 组合单点定位的定权与结果分析

利用Helmert方差分量估计方法为GPS/BeiDou组合单点定位不同系统观测值定权,获得了合理的权值。分析了开阔环境和遮挡环境两种情况下的动态GPS/BeiDou组合单点定位的精度。结果表明：在静态观测和动态观测中,组合单点定位与单独G PS单点定位相比精度有显著提高。     

黄土震陷研究及相关问题探讨

The research and achievements made on seismic subsidence of loess, obtained over the past 30 years, were reviewed. Seismic Subsidence of Loess （SSL） has been verified by microstructure characteristics, dynamic triaxial experiments, and in-situ explosion tests, and has become an important subject in the field of seismic loess engineering research. While, the research is still in the stage of theoretical study of saturated soil, and there are no representative cases of seismic subsidence of loess in historical earthquakes. It is difficult to express structure characteristics using microstructure morphology. While, soil mechanics are available methods for this. Seismic subsidence judgment is absolute in some certain value ranges for several parameters. Therefore, probabilistic judgment should be developed. The seismic subsidence ratio is estimated mostly by empirical formulas or semi- empirical and semi-theoretical formulas, which are based on laboratory data. These formulas are not established on the basis of physical process and mechanics of seismic subsidence, and this leads to more variables, complicated computation, and poor practicability. To solve these problems, we need to distinguish the main factors and corresponding variables, to establish a mechanics model for seismic subsidence estimation, and to characterize its physio-mechanical process. The key of anti-seismic subsidence treatment is to reduce the seismic subsidence property of soils, and to lower the interaction between the soil body and underground structures.     

中国贫困村测度与空间分布特征分析

农村贫困问题是中国全面建成小康社会的主要障碍之一。面向当前国家瞄准贫困村和贫困人口的精准脱贫战略需求,基于“十二五”期间全国贫困村“整村推进”项目村数据,构建村级多维贫困综合测度模型,并利用加权核密度模型、空间自相关方法等,从不同尺度、不同视角系统测度并分析了研究区贫困村的相对贫困特征。结果表明：① 贫困程度上,“十二五”期间贫困村呈中间大,两头小的“橄榄型”结构,省级、县级尺度下贫困深度与当地经济、区位、政策、自然环境等因素相关;② 空间分布上,全国贫困村分布呈现出东部和西北部稀疏、中部和西南部密集的“夹层”形空间异质性格局,同时存在多个不同量级、呈“星点”式分布的贫困核心;③ 中国贫困村的多维贫困存在较强的全局空间依赖性,局部呈现为高—高区与低—低区集中式分布、高—低区与低—高区离散夹杂式分布,且整体表现为西高东低的“阶梯状”格局。     

Muskingum equation based downstream sediment flow simulation models for a river system

Applications of sediment transport and water flow characteristics based sediment transport simulation models for a river system are presented in this study. An existing water–sediment model and a new sediment–water model are used to formulate the simulation models representing water and sediment movement in a river system. The sediment–water model parameters account for water flow characteristics embodying sediment transport properties of a section. The models are revised formulations of the multiple water inflows model describing water movement through a river system as given by the Muskingum principle. The models are applied to a river system in Mississippi River basin to estimate downstream sediment concentration, sediment discharge, and water discharge. River system and the river section parameters are estimated using a revised and the original multiple water inflows models by applying the genetic algorithm. The models estimate downstream sediment transport rates on the basis of upstream sediment/water flow rates to a system. Model performance is evaluated by using standard statistical criteria;downstream water discharge resulting from the original multiple water inflows model using the estimated river system parameters indicate that the revised models satisfactorily describe water movement through a river system. Results obtained in the study demonstrate the applicability of the sediment transport and water flow characteristics-based simulation models in predicting downstream sediment transport and water flow rates in a river system.     

Geostatistical radar–raingauge merging: A novel method for the quantification of rain estimation accuracy

Compared to other estimation techniques, one advantage of geostatistical techniques is that they provide an index of the estimation accuracy of the variable of interest with the kriging estimation standard deviation (ESD). In the context of radar–raingauge quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), we address in this article the question of how the kriging ESD can be transformed into a local spread of error by using the dependency of radar errors to the rain amount analyzed in previous work. The proposed approach is implemented for the most significant rain events observed in 2008 in the Cévennes-Vivarais region, France, by considering both the kriging with external drift (KED) and the ordinary kriging (OK) methods. A two-step procedure is implemented for estimating the rain estimation accuracy: (i) first kriging normalized ESDs are computed by using normalized variograms (sill equal to 1) to account for the observation system configuration and the spatial structure of the variable of interest (rainfall amount, residuals to the drift); (ii) based on the assumption of a linear relationship between the standard deviation and the mean of the variable of interest, a denormalization of the kriging ESDs is performed globally for a given rain event by using a cross-validation procedure. Despite the fact that the KED normalized ESDs are usually greater than the OK ones (due to an additional constraint in the kriging system and a weaker spatial structure of the residuals to the drift), the KED denormalized ESDs are generally smaller the OK ones, a result consistent with the better performance observed for the KED technique. The evolution of the mean and the standard deviation of the rainfall-scaled ESDs over a range of spatial (5–300 km²) and temporal (1–6 h) scales demonstrates that there is clear added value of the radar with respect to the raingauge network for the shortest scales, which are those of interest for flash-flood prediction in the considered region.     

运用多参数的信息扩散估计的导线网平差

信息扩散估计技术被应用到水准网平差这一多维参数估计中,部分地解决了在测量数据处理中的应用问题。在此基础上,将多参数的信息扩散估计进一步推广到导线网平差中,并通过实例计算与传统预测方法进行了比较,结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和推广应用价值。     

胶新铁路路基沉降监测中的水准测量及数据处理

从总体论述了胶新线沉降监测中水准测量的实施方法。首先论述了胶新铁路的概况,以及本次测量的目的以及内容,然后论述了测量的原理和测试方法。重点论述了数据的处理理论与方法,其中包括异常数据的探测及粗差的处理,涉及最小二乘法;稳健估计;最后重点介绍了傅里叶分析在本次测量中的应用。