基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

南海温跃层基本特征及一维预报模式

根据现有1907—1990年南海大面调查资料,按1°×1°网格进行逐月的标准水层的温度统计。在此基础上采用3次样条函数的插值方法计算出整个南海温跃层的深度、厚度和强度并予以相应分析。分析表明,南海温跃层主要分为两种类型:第一类为辐射型,主要分布在南海北部的陆架区内,季节变化显著;第二类为不同水体叠置型,主要分布在广大深水区,它长年存在,季节变化较小。一种温跃层的一维积分预报模式,该模式是基于忽略热平流作用和水平热扩散的前提下,从局部热平衡方程出发,建立了受海面热收支及风混合作用下求解温度垂直分布及温跃层的时空变化。在南海北部水深约300m处进行了单站温跃层后报,结果表明,温跃层的深度、厚度和强度的相对误差均在30％以下。     

Centrifugal test of a road embankment built after new dredger fill on thick marine clay

Abstract

The construction of a 100-km road network is planned on a land reclamation area in the Oujiang Estuary in China. The embankment had a height of 4 m and a base width of 60 m. The reclamation area is newly filled by a 3-m dredger fill on a 48-m thick layer of marine clay. Estimation of the settlement of the future road network is difficult. To guide the construction of the road network, a 1/100-scale centrifuge model test was performed with a marine clay sample from the construction site to simulate the layered settlements and evaluate the drainage effect of prefabricated vertical drains in the dredger fill in the following 10 years. The results of the centrifuge modeling test are verified by 10-month in situ monitoring, which shows agreement between the centrifuge modeling test results and the in situ results. The test results indicate that additional time is needed to reinforce the newly added dredger fill by the surcharge preloading method to uplift the elevation of the reclamation area with dredger fill.     

地震折射波的虚拟射线理论及其应用

本文提出了一种地震折射液的虚拟射线理论,根据该理论,只要已知地表层的速度,即可直接由折射波信息提取地震参数,从而可实现折射界面的反演。 文中通过实际介质模型的计算机实验结果,验证了该理论的正确性。     

Internal generation of waves: Delta source function method and source term addition method

In this study, we investigate two internal wave generation methods in numerical modeling of time-dependent equations for water wave propagation, i.e., delta source function method and source term addition method, the latter of which has been called the line source method in literatures. We derive delta source functions for the Boussinesq-type equations and extended mild-slope equations. By applying the fractional step splitting method, we show that the delta source function method is equivalent to the source term addition method employing the energy velocity. This suggests that the energy velocity should be used rather than the phase velocity for the transport of incident wave energy in the source term addition method. Finally, the performance of the delta source function method is verified by accurately generating nonlinear cnoidal waves as well as linear waves for horizontally one-dimensional cases.     

渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报

"十·五"期间,我国开展了三维海洋温度和海流数值预报的业务化研究工作.经过3年的努力,渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报系统研制完成,并于2003年10月,开始试预报.本文对该预报系统以及运行情况进行了介绍,并分析了所存在的问题和发展方向.     

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。     

Modeling of coupled tide–wave–surge process in the Yellow Sea

A coupled wave–tide–surge model has been developed in this study in order to investigate the effect of the interactions among tides, storm surges, and wind waves. The coupled model is based on the synchronous dynamic coupling of a third-generation wave model, WAM cycle 4, and the two-dimensional tide–surge model. The surface stress, which is generated by interactions between wind and wave, is calculated by using the WAM model directly based on an analytical approximation of the results using the quasi-linear theory of wave generation. The changes in bottom friction are created by the interactions between waves and currents and calculated by using simplified bottom boundary layer model. In consequence, the combined wave–current-induced bottom velocity and effective bottom drag coefficient were increased in the shallow waters during the strong storm conditions.