Interannual variability of monsoons in Malaysia and its relationship with ENSO

Interannual variations of the monsoons have been studied utilising homogeneous rainfall records of 41 years (1951–1991) from Malaysia and upper air data of stations in Asia, Australia and Western Pacific. Sources of upper air data are U.S. Department of Commerce and Kuala Lumpur Northern Winter Monsoon Activity Centre. Extreme wet and dry years have been identified and the influence of ENSO on Malaysian annual rainfall has been discussed. Influence of ENSO on the performance of northern summer and winter monsoons has also been studied from Malaysian rainfall data. Further, regional circulation patterns associated with El Nino and La Nina years have also been identified. No linear trend has been found in the annual rainfall of 16 stations in Malaysia. Most El Nino years are associated with below median and La Nina years with above median rainfall at most stations in Malaysia. ENSO has greater influence over East Malaysia than peninsular Malaysia. Interannual variability of rainfall with reference to ENSO conditions has been discussed in details. Also, circulation features have been identified to foresee El Nino/La Nina events.     

耦合海气动力学短期变率的数值研究

为了探索全球性气候变化的年际变率，研制了一个复盖热带太平洋区域的耦合海气模式，并用来模拟ＥＮＳＯ变率的主要特征。数值试验结果与实况比较表明，对１９８２／１９８３年厄尔尼诺事件的主要特征模拟良好。基本结论是要考虑好关键要素和关键过程，即：平均风场和平均海温场；风和海温场的年循环；海洋表面层；三维海温平流；大气（水平方向）水汽辐合效应。     

青岛榴辉岩及胶南群片麻岩的锆石U-Pb 年龄——胶南群中晋宁期岩浆事件的证据

研究表明，苏鲁地体是扬子与华北陆-陆碰撞造山带的一部分（东段）。其主要变质岩系——胶南群，是扬子陆块北缘俯冲陆壳的基底。在已有的文献中，人们均将胶南群划为早、中元古代地体。组成胶南群的主要岩石是长英质片麻岩，在其中间包含有少量斜长角闪岩、大理岩、超镁铁岩和榴辉岩。大量的Sm-Nd 及 40Ar/39Ar 同位素定年已证明了，胶南群在三叠纪时，经历了与华北和扬子陆块碰撞有关的高压或超高压变质作用，原岩的时代缺乏可靠的年龄测定，被认为是早、中元古代岩石。然而最近我们对青岛附近仰口的退变质榴辉岩及胶南群片麻岩的     

1992年夏季苏州持续高温及其中期预报

分析１９５１年以来苏州夏季高温以及持续高温与厄尔尼诺、亚洲经向环流指数、副高强度指数的关系，１９９２年夏季根据ＧＭＳ卫星云图所反应的厄尔尼诺状况和其他因素，对日本９６－１９２小时的数值预报进行修正，准确及时地作出了持续高温的中期预报。     

1991—1992年ENSO事件的特征

根据美国国家海洋大气局气候分析中心（ＣＡＣ）和中国气象局气候监测公报所提供的海－气资料，综合分析了１９９１－１９９２年ＥＮＳＯ事件的形成、发展过程。这次ＥＮＳＯ事件的主要特点是：①在ＥＮＳＯ事件爆发前一年内热带太平洋海气特性频频呈现异常，暖水堆积在赤道中太平洋（５°Ｎ－５°Ｓ，１６０°Ｅ－１６０°Ｗ）约１２个月，然后自西向东传输，爆发１９９１－１９９２年ＥＮＳＯ事件。②对ＥＮＳＯ事件作出响应的西太     

VARIATIONS OF 30—60 DAY OSCILLATION IN ATMOSPHERE BEFORE AND DURING 1982 EL NINO*

By using the upper-wind data from July 1980 to June 1983,the variations of the low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in the atmosphere before and during 1982 El Nino have been investigated.Before the El Nino,the LFO propagates from west to east over the equator of the Eastern Hemisphere and from east to west over 20°N.The eastward propagating LFO over the equator consists of zonal wavenumber 1 propagating eastward and zonal wavenumber 2 with a character of stationary wave.The oscillation of zonal wavenumber 2 can modulate the oscillation strength.After the onset of the El Nino,the propagating directions of the LFO over the equator and 20°N of the Eastern Hemisphere change to be westward and eastward,respectively.The LFO over the western Pacific weakens rapidly and one coming from middle and high latitudes propagates to the equator.From the phase compositions of streamline fields for the zonal wavenumber 1 of equatorial westward propagatirg LFO,it is found that the atmospheric heat source in the equator of the eastern Pacific(EEP)excites a series of the equatorial cyclones and anticyclones which move northward and westward and form the westward propagating LFO over the equator.With the wavelength of 20000km,this kind of equatorial wave is similar to the mixing Rossby-gravity wave.In its westward and northward movement,the circulation in East Asia is modified.This may be the mechanism of the influence of El Nino on the climate of China.     

我国大陆及其邻区6级以上地震的“缺震事件”——一种大地震中期预测指标的分析研究

在内陆强震活动的起伏中,6级以上地震的大范围长时间缺震,具有重要的意义。有的研究者已将其作为将发生7级地震前的标志之一。作者系统地清理了1897—1988年8月间中国大陆及其邻区6级以上地震“缺震事件”的始末,较多的震例表明,限定“缺震事件”起止的地震具有中期预报意义。它们在地震构造上的原因可能是代表区域最活跃的破裂,突然处于阻碍、闭锁状态,其持续时间大于10个月,再次发生6级以上地震为解锁,并随即出现新的一轮大地震活动。故可以作为一种大地震中期预测的指标。     

1983与1985年夏季北半球500hPa高度场大气低频波的振荡特征

本文利用观测资料分析了1983与1985年夏季半球500hPa高度场大气低频波的振荡特征。结果表明，1983年（厄尔尼诺年）夏季热带中、东太平洋和印度洋以及东亚季风区上空的低频振荡比1985年（反厄尔尼诺年）夏季的低频振荡强，而热带西太平洋的情况恰好相反。这是由于反厄尔尼诺年夏季热带西太平洋对流活动强盛所致。分析结果还表明：1983年夏季低频波基本上是东传的；1985年夏季，在中高纬度地区低频波主要还是东传，热带是西传。西藏高原是大气低频振荡的汇区。