降水资料同化在GRAPES-MESO模式中应用试验研究

利用国家气象中心中尺度业务数值预报模式GRAPES-MESO v3.0,以2010年6月1～30日为例,开展地面降水率1DVAR(one-dimensional variational assimilation)同化方案在GRAPES-3DVAR(three-dimensional variational assimilation)同化系统中的应用试验研究(ASSI试验),并以未加降水资料同化的试验为对照试验(CNTL试验),以评估全国1h加密雨量资料在模式中同化应用的效果。结果表明:1)在相对湿度背景误差和降水率观测误差范围内,1DVAR同化方案能够对湿度廓线进行有意义的调整,使分析降水向观测降水靠近;ASSI试验对初始温、压、湿、风场的修正主要为正效果;2)对2010年6月17～21日江南、华南连续性降水过程进行了分析,整体而言ASSI试验对逐日及逐时降水强度的预报普遍强于CNTL试验,与实况更加接近;3)ASSI试验对2010年6月1～30日08时起报的0～24 h模式预报的小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨、大暴雨各个降水量级TS评分及ETS评分相比CNTL试验均有较明显提高,预报偏差也更接近于1;4)ASSI试验较CNTL试验能更好地模拟雨带的分布、雨带演变特征和降水强度的变化;5)对降水所做的典型个例和统计检验分析从不同角度说明了地面降水资料1DVAR同化方案在GRAPES-3DVAR系统中的应用改善了GRAPES-MESO v3.0的降水模拟效果。     

一维热扩散湖模式在太湖的应用研究

利用在太湖获得的2010年8月11-28日的观测资料研究了一维热扩散湖模式在太湖的适用性,通过对比模拟进一步研究了影响太湖湖表温度模拟的主要因子。该湖模式对太湖最初的模拟结果并不理想,模拟的湖表面温度与观测有较大的系统性偏差,温度的日变化幅度与观测相比也偏小。通过分析该模式对太湖的模拟效果不理想的可能原因,针对太湖的生态环境和污染情况,设计了18个测试参数的敏感性试验,从敏感性试验的结果分析得到,适用于太湖的、依赖于湖泊类型的3个参数应做如下修改:消光系数（η₀）应放大3倍,湖泊表层吸收的太阳辐射系数（β）应取0.8,粗糙长度（z₀）采用公式计算得到。用新得到的适用于太湖的3个参数,模拟得到的结果与最初的模拟结果和观测资料对比,发现采用新的参数后,模拟结果比最初的模拟结果有了很大的改进,模拟的湖表温度基本接近观测,模拟的湖水垂直剖面时间序列图也跟观测吻合得较好,随之的感热、潜热通量的模拟也都与观测接近。最后,对输入湖模式的主要大气参量（太阳辐射、2 m气温及风场）±10%的误差引起的模式模拟的湖表面温度误差进行分析,结果表明该湖模式对大气强迫场的误差敏感度不高;相比之下,模拟结果对风场敏感性最小,对辐射和气温的敏感度相当。     

Implementing adaptation in developed countries: an analysis of progress and trends

Little attention has been paid thus far to the experiences of developed countries in adapting to climate change. This article addresses this research gap by providing an assessment of broad trends in progress on planning and implementing adaptation in developed countries. Primary inputs are the National Communications (NCs) by these countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), although the article also discusses illustrative examples of recent adaptation activities that have not been covered in the NCs. NCs reflect ‘whole government’ perspectives and follow a standardized reporting format, which facilitates cross-national comparisons. The analysis shows that impacts and adaptation receive limited attention within NCs. The discussion on impacts and adaptation has typically been dominated by climate scenarios and impacts analysis, while the discussion on adaptation is often limited to the identification of generic options. There are signs of recent progress, however, in the Third and especially the Fourth NCs, in which a growing number of developed countries report on establishing frameworks for adaptation and on efforts to implement adaptation measures that take future climate into account. Although an encouraging sign, it is still too early to assess the eventual impact of such measures.     

A CER discounting scheme could save climate change regime after 2012

We can generate a net global GHG emission reduction from developing countries (in an UNFCCC term, non-Annex 1 Parties) without imposing targets on them, if we discount CERs generated from CDM projects. The CER discounting scheme means that a part or all of CDM credits, i.e., CERs, made by developing countries through unilateral CDM projects will be retired rather than sold to developed countries to increase their emissions. It is not feasible to impose certain forms of target (whether sectoral or intensity targets) on non-Annex 1 whose emission trend is hard to predict and whose industrial structure is undergoing a rapid change.

Instead of imposing targets (a command and control approach), we should apply market instruments in generating a net global emission reduction from non-Annex 1. Since April 2005 when the first unilateral CDM was approved by the CDM Executive Board, CDM has been functioning as a market mechanism to provide incentives for developing countries to initiate their own emission reduction projects. As CDM is the only market mechanism engaging developing countries in the Kyoto Protocol, we should try to re-design CDM so that it can generate net global emission reductions by introducing the idea of discounting CERs. But in order to produce meaningful GHG emission reductions by discounting CERs, the project scope of CDM has to be expanded by relaxing project additionality criteria while maintaining strict technical additionality criteria. Agreeing on the CERs Discounting Scheme will have a better political chance than agreeing on imposing emission reduction targets on developing countries.     

Implications of early action for JI baselines

Abstract

This article discusses possible implications of early Joint Implementation (JI) action. Some projects which would otherwise be non-additional during the first commitment period, can become additional by implementing them before 2008 through early JI. For example, several environmental investments that will be mandatory under the European Union (EU) Acquis Communautaire as of, e.g. 2008 or 2010 could be carried out earlier than that with early JI action. As such, candidate countries could partly finance the accession process through JI credits and their environmental standards would earlier be in line with the Acquis. The theoretical risk that projects would have to follow a slow track if JI parties are not eligible for the fast track is not large for JI hosts that are candidate for EU membership.     

The Long-term Light Variation of BL Lac Object 1ES 1959+650

According to the data of optical observations of the Tuorla Observatory in Finland, using the power spectrum method, DCF (Discrete Correlation Function) method, and Jurkevich method, respectively, we analyzed the periodicity of the long-term light variation of the BL Lac object 1ES 1959+650, and obtained its light period to be P =1.4±0.3 yr. Assuming that the origin of the periodicity is concerned with the accretion disk, we obtained the region where the instability of this source occurs being R =9.65 R_g, here R_g represents the Schwarzschild radius.     

Symbiotic stars with spectral indication of bipolar ejection and stellar wind

Four out of a total of five symbiotic systems whose optical spectral lines contain satellite components indicating collimated ejection have an additional absorption of P Cyg type with different velocity. These systems are Z And, Hen 3‐1341, StHα 190, and BF Cyg. It is shown that the line profiles of every of these systems can be interpreted in the framework of a model of a collimated stellar wind from the hot compact component proposed initially to interpret the line profiles of Z And, observed during its last active phase after 2000. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The flat synchrotron spectra of partially self-absorbed jets revisited

Flat radio spectra with large brightness temperatures at the core of active galactic nuclei and X-ray binaries are usually interpreted as the partially self-absorbed bases of jet flows emitting synchrotron radiation. Here we extend previous models of jets propagating at large angles to our line of sight to self-consistently include the effects of energy losses of the relativistic electrons due to the synchrotron process itself and the adiabatic expansion of the jet flow. We also take into account energy gains through self-absorption. Two model classes are presented. The ballistic jet flows, with the jet material travelling along straight trajectories, and adiabatic jets. Despite the energy losses, both scenarios can result in flat emission spectra; however, the adiabatic jets require a specific geometry. No re-acceleration process along the jet is needed for the electrons. We apply the models to observational data of the X-ray binary Cygnus X-1. Both models can be made consistent with the observations. The resulting ballistic jet is extremely narrow with a jet opening angle of only 5 arcsec. Its energy transport rate is small compared to the time-averaged jet power and therefore suggests the presence of non-radiating protons in the jet flow. The adiabatic jets require a strong departure from energy equipartition between the magnetic field and the relativistic electrons. These models also imply a jet power of two orders of magnitude higher than the Eddington limiting luminosity of a  10-M_⊙  black hole. The models put strong constraints on the physical conditions in the jet flows on scales well below achievable resolution limits.