高原季风强弱对南亚高压活动的影响

分析了高原季风强弱对夏季南亚高压活动和三峡库区旱涝的影响,揭示了如高原夏季风偏强(弱),育藏高原上空及其以东地区100hPa南亚高压也偏强(弱),位置偏北偏东(偏南偏西)。高原季风强年,南亚高压脊线6月北跳比多年平均早1候,8月南撤晚1～2侯;高原季风弱年。脊线北跳晚1～2候,南撤早1候。同时显示了高原夏季风强年,5～6月三峡库区降水随着南亚高压脊线北移而增多,7～8月三峡库区降水减少;高原夏季风弱年,主汛期前期库区降水少,后期降水略有增多。     

THE 1998 FLOOD OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

1INTRODUCTIONDuringthefloodseasonof1998,anothercatastrophicfloodoccurredinthemiddleandlowerYangtzeRiverfollowingthecatastrophicfloodin1954.Ascomparedwiththe54flood,the1998floodwascharacterizedbythefactsthatthedurationofthehighwaterstagewasmuchlonger,thefloodcontrolwasmuchmoredifficult,andthetotalmanpowerandmaterialresourcesexpelldedintilefloodfightingweremuchmoreenormous.TOsummarizetheexperienceandlessonsfromthefloodissignificanttotilehydraulicengineeringandfloodcontroloftheYangtzeRiver.…     

闽西山区旅游开发与脆弱生态环境耦合发展机制研究之展望

深入研究闽西山区旅游开发与脆弱生态环境耦合发展机制,即通过建立山区生态脆弱性评价指标体系、研究脆弱生态环境与旅游开发耦合发展、构建闽西生态脆弱区旅游资源开发模式及建立旅游发展预警系统等措施来实现闽西山区旅游开发与脆弱生态环境保护的良性耦合。学术贡献主要体现在：理论层面上可以建立一种适用于山区型生态脆弱区生态环境与旅游开发协调发展的分析框架,在应用层面上实现旅游资源适度开发与生态环境有效保护,促进山区型生态脆弱区生态资源可持续发展。为实现研究目标,本研究从人地关系角度出发提出自上而下、自下而上相结合的技术路线。     

A dipole mode at thermocline layer in the tropical Indian Ocean

Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.     

基于统计动力反演的东亚亚热带季风变化驱动机制研究

利用观测数据,运用非线性统计-动力学方法,反演系统各因子之间的相互关系,建立了东亚亚热带季风变化的动力方程,为研究东亚亚热带季风的驱动机制提供了量化参考。研究发现：过去2 000 a东亚亚热带季风是多因子通过反馈机制相互作用影响且具有耦合效应的复杂非线性动力系统,其驱动力主要来源于普若岗日冰芯δ¹⁸О代表的青藏高原热力作用强迫、太阳黑子活动、ENSO、温室气体单因子CO₂和CH₄浓度、北极温度和CH₄及北极温度与7月太阳辐射的耦合作用机制;反馈调节作用主要源于7月太阳辐射与太阳黑子活动、CH₄浓度、中国陆地地表温、CH₄与7月太阳辐射以及CO₂和CH₄的耦合调节作用。并通过动力反演机制推论热带西太平洋对亚热带季风有一定驱动作用,但并不是主要驱动力,即驱动亚热带季风变化的主源地并不在热带西太平洋海区,石笋δ¹⁸О指代的也主要是夏季风信息。     

大容量气枪震源长江定点激发信号检测

地学长江计划“安徽段实验”是大容量气枪震源在长江的首次激发。本文针对布设在气枪固定激发点附近的流动台和周边固定台接收到的气枪信号进行线性叠加分析近场和远场信号的时频特性,利用叠加结果检测气枪信号的传播特性,分析不同环境因素对信号传播距离的影响。结果表明：①近岸首台可以接收到清晰的压力脉冲、气泡脉冲的体波和面波信号;②气枪信号主频为5Hz左右,随震中距的增加,压力脉冲信号衰减很快,信号主频频带变窄;③对信号传播距离进行初步检测,最近的传播距离为180km,最远共有3个激发点传播达到260km,夜晚激发信号传播距离较远。     

陕北奥陶纪盐盆的区域成矿地质条件分析

本文以鄂尔多斯盆地陕北奥陶纪岩盐为主要研究对象,在深入分析以往岩盐的成因机制和充分利用前人的研究资料基础上,从区域古气候、古地理、古构造和岩相古地理方面综合分析认为,奥陶纪时期,陕北盐盆能够发育巨厚岩盐,并且岩盐沉积时的卤水达到钾石盐至光卤石的阶段,是由有利于成盐的干旱古气候条件,有利于蒸发岩发育的半封闭的区域构造、地质条件,以及区域上有利于氯化物盐类迁移富集的预备盆地发育的区域岩相古地理条件共同作用的结果。     

Velocities of elastic waves andv P/v S ratios in dry and water-saturated rock samples at high pressure

Elastic wave velocities and the ratiov _P/v _S were studied for dry and initially saturated samples of carbonate and crystalline rocks at pressures to 2 kbar. In initially saturated samplesv _P increases in crystalline rock, whereas in sedimentary rock it may either increase or decrease with increasing pressure. Under the same conditionsv _S remains approximately constant in crystalline rocks and decreases in sedimentary samples. The ratiov _P/v _S as a function of pressure increases in dry rocks and decreases in saturated ones. Saturated samples always have higherv _P/v _S ratios than dry ones. It appears that the geometry of the pore space influences the acoustic properties of saturated crystalline rocks.     

浅析房产面积测绘中存在的问题

随着房地产经济的迅猛发展,业主对房产面积测绘精度的要求越来越高。房产面积测绘的精确度与业主的合法利益有很大的关联,这就要求更加严格控制测绘过程质量,减少房产面积测绘误差。本文讨论了目前房产测绘中存在的几大问题,并对如何提高房产测绘质量提出相关的建议和对策。     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.