西北太平洋TC高频源地与GMS-SST暖水区及ITCZ的匹配关系

利用GMS高精度遥感海表温度(SST)反演资料、外逸长波辐射(OLR)反演资料和西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)源地及频数数据,分析了GMS-SST、赤道辐合带(ITCZ)、TC源地及频数的时空分布特征。研究发现:TC源地、发生频数以及强度的时空分布和变化均具有趋暖性。GMS-SST大于等于28℃的阈值条件为西北太平洋TC发生和维持的必要条件。并且存在10°N高频收缩轴,其与由GMS-SST大于等于28℃所定义的西北太平洋暖水区,GMS-OLR小于等于240 W.m-2定义的ITCZ的时空分布及变化有很好的相关性,即存在TC高频源地—GMS-SST暖水区—ITCZ三者间的匹配相关。     

影响海州湾4—7月温带气旋大风客观预报方法研究

本文首先从亚欧天气图上查找1988—1997年4—7月逐月逐时次位于30—40°N、110—125°E范围内的温带气旋,按气旋所处位置分为黄河气旋和江淮气旋两大类,再按某类气旋出现时次后12h内、24h内海州湾地区有无大风分成4小类（总共8小类）。根据上述8类气旋出现的时次分类收集平壤、北京等17个主要站点当时及其前12h、前24h地面气温和海平面气压资料,对各类各站温压资料进行地区差、时间差计算处理。利用所得的实测资料,采用二级分辩的统计方法建立有无大风的分辩函数,从而做出海州地区未来12h和24h内有无大风的客观预报。经检验,此客观预报比以往的主观预报准确率提高13.8％。     

INDEX TO CONTENTS OF 2014 JMR

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Extreme Sea Levels Associated With Severe Tropical Cyclones Hitting Orissa Coast of India

Extreme sea levels associated with severe cyclonic storms are common occurrences along the east coast of India. The coastal districts of Orissa have experienced major surges in the past. The recent Paradip super cyclone is one of the most severe cyclones, causing extensive damage to property and loss of lives. Extreme sea levels are major causes for coastal flooding in this region. Damages can be minimized if the extreme sea levels are forecast well in advance. In the present study, we develop a location specific, fine resolution model for the Orissa coast on the lines similar to that of IIT-D storm surge model (Dube et al. 1994). The model runs on a personal computer. The bathymetry for the model is extracted from very fine resolution naval hydrographic charts for the region extending from the south of Orissa to south of West Bengal. A simple drying scheme has also been included in the model in order to avoid the exposure of land near the coast due to strong negative sea surface elevations. An attempt was made in this study to simulate extreme sea levels along the Orissa coast using the data of past severe cyclones. The model results reported in the present study are in good agreement with available observations or estimates.     

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Tamil Nadu (India) and Sri Lankan Coasts

Numerical modeling of extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones in the Indian seas has been confined to the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (north of Tamil Nadu). However, limited attempts have been made for modeling of surges along the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan coasts. Although, very rarely, cyclones form south of 10°N, there are some instances of severe cyclonic storms hitting these areas and causing widespread destruction to life and property. Keeping this in view, a suitable location-specific, high-resolution, numerical model has been developed for the prediction of storm surges in these regions with a grid resolution of 3 km. Using the model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate the storm surge associated with the 1964 Rameswaram cyclone, the 1978 Batticaloa cyclone, the 1992 Tuticorin cyclone, the 1993 Karaikal cyclone, and the 1994 Madras cyclone. During the years 1964, 1978, and 1992, the cyclones struck both Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts, while in 1993 and 1994, the cyclones struck only the Tamil Nadu coast. It is found that the computed sea surface elevations are in close agreement with the available observations/estimates.     

Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Trends Along the Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Frequency of Intense Cyclones

Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, is a victim of frequent natural calamities like tropical cyclones, tornadoes, floods, storm surges and droughts. Now the sea level rise (SLR) has also been included in these natural calamities. The SLR is likely to have greater impact on that part of Bangladesh having low topography and a wide flood plain. Since 21% of the population lives in the low coastal belt, any increase in sea level will be a problem of ominous proportion for Bangladesh. Since the cyclogenesis enhances over the Bay of Bengal during May and November, the sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) trends of these two months have been analyzed and calculated. The results of the selected stations one in the eastern coast and another in the western coast of Bangladesh show that Bangladesh coastal sea level is rising in the same way as the global sea level, but the magnitude is quite different. The difference in the behavior of sea level rise along the Bangladesh coast and the global trend may be due to the tectonic activity such as subsidence of the land. The mean tide level at Hiron Point (in Sunderbans) has shown an increasing trend of about 2.5 mm/year in May and 8.5 mm/year in November. Similarly near Cox?s Bazar (in the eastern coast of Bangladesh) it has registered a positive trend of about 4.3 mm/year in May and 10.9 mm/year in November. Thus the increment in the sea level along the Bangladesh coast during cyclone months is much more pronounced. In coastal waters near Hiron Point the SST has registered an increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14-year period from 1985?1998. Near Cox?s Bazar, SST has shown a rising trend of about 0.8°C in May and about 0.4°C in November during the same 14-year period. The magnitude of SST trend is slightly more along the west coast. Any change in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones will have far reaching implications in the South Asian region. The rise in SST in the cyclone months seems to be correlated with the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. During these months, an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of severe cyclones has been observed.     

西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究

热带气旋和台风是严重的突发性自然灾害之一。近20年来,对热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究成为台风领域的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的季节、年际和年代际时间尺度变化的研究回顾,揭示了造成热带气旋和台风活动不同时间尺度变化的主要影响机制,其中包括低频振荡、季风槽和西传赤道波动、ENSO和QBO现象等,这些系统主要通过改变西北太平洋上空的环流,而影响到西北太平洋热带气旋活动以及登陆我国台风的不同时间尺度变化。还在西北太平洋海域热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展和作者最新的研究成果的基础上,展望了该领域的研究前景,并提出当前此研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题,主要包括了季风槽区能量交换、不同海域动力过程、赤道波动演变,以及热带气旋的季节和更长时间尺度的预测。     

西北太平洋上热带气旋尺度变化率与其尺度和强度的关系

为了进一步了解热带气旋(TC)尺度变化与其结构的相关关系,本文基于多平台热带气旋表面风场资料,通过相关分析得出西北太平洋上TC的24 h尺度变化率(SCR)与其尺度,强度以及强度变化率(ICR)的相关系数分别为-0.43,-0.12,0.25.其中SCR-ICR的相关关系主要受不同发展阶段的影响,在TC均达到/均未达到...     

西北太平洋台风群发事件年代际变化特征分析

利用台风最佳路径资料和全球再分析数据集分析了1979—2018年6—10月西北太平洋地区台风群发事件的统计特征。期间所有台风个例根据群发性质被分为三类：第一类为单独生成的非群发台风；第二类为群发事件中生成，但事件中仅有2个台风成员的"MTC2"台风；第三类为群发事件中生成，且事件中有3个或3个以上台风成员的"MTC3"台风。结果表明，相对于MTC2台风，MTC3台风生成时位置偏北，环境场季风槽辐合更强、高温海区范围更大、中低层大气更湿润。而MTC3台风在1990s末的突变减少导致了西太台风群发事件和台风总数减少。1996年之后，尽管洋面上空仍有较多的热带涡旋扰动，但群发台风活跃的大部分地区垂直风切变增强、高空辐散和季风槽辐合减弱以及西太平洋热带季节内振荡事件（Madden-Julian Oscillation，MJO）的对流活跃位相维持日数减少，它们共同导致了MTC3事件的年代际变化。     

东亚及西太平洋锋面气旋的统计研究

用1958到1989年共32年资料对东亚及西太平洋地区的锋面气旋做了统计研究,气旋生成有两个主要的集中区,蒙古生成区次数最多,沿海生成区次之并还可以分为两个分区。各生成区中心位置和中心数值随季节有不同的变化。 气旋中心气压24小时变化值呈负偏态分布,海洋地区气旋的负偏度更大,爆发性气旋主要出现在海洋上,沿海地区也时有发生。有明显年际、月际变化,主要发生在冬季,次为春季.文中还对爆发性气旋各种特征参数做了详细统计。 用计算气旋活动的相对变率方法,定出了四季气旋主要活动路径。