A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Continuous air rate measurement in flotation cells: Some fundamental considerations

A robust and reliable sensor to measure gas (air) superficial velocity (J_g) continuously in flotation systems is introduced. It is based on the sampling of bubbles by buoyancy with the accumulating air allowed to exit through an orifice. At steady state, pressure drop is measured and related to the J_g by prior calibration. The continuous device is readily automated and extended to a multi-unit set-up. The sensor and data collections are described. The governing gas flow equation and models of the dynamic response to air flow rate set point change and fluctuations in froth depth are derived. Model predictions are confirmed against plant data. By taking a moving average, the J_g remains valid in the face of typical plant disturbances.     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Preparation of a geotechnical microzonation model using Geographical Information Systems based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

The purpose of this study is to develop a geotechnical microzonation model using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). As study area, the Eskişehir downtown area has been chosen. Eskişehir is one of the most rapidly growing cities in central Turkey. The model inputs include slope, flood susceptibility, soil, depth to groundwater table, swelling potential, and liquefaction potential. The weight and rank values are assigned to the layers and to the classes of each layer respectively. The assignment of the weight/rank values and the analysis are realized by the application of two different decision models, namely Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. The geotechnical microzonation maps prepared as outputs of these methods are found to be consistent with each other and confirmed by the experts within the study area. The geotechnical microzonation map prepared using the AHP method is recommended as the final map of the study.     

Mineralogical and chemical transformation of Oldoinyo Lengai natrocarbonatites, Tanzania

The minerals of Oldoinyo Lengai natrocarbonatite lavas are unstable under atmospheric conditions. Subsolidus mineral assemblages in natrocarbonatites were studied in 105 samples from contemporary eruptions ranging from present day to about 100 years old. The subsolidus minerals in natrocarbonatites were formed (i) along cracks on the lava surface from hot gases escaping during cooling, (ii) as atmospheric alteration by solution of water-soluble minerals, in particular halides and gregoryite, and by hydration of nyerereite under the influence of meteoric water and (iii) by reaction with fumarole gases. After solidification, the lavas were cut by a network of thin cracks, the edges of which are covered by polymineralic encrustations. Samples collected 2–24 h after eruption contain nahcolite, trona, sylvite, and halite with accessory kalicinite and villiaumite. Atmospheric humidity results immediately (≥ 2 h after eruption) in alteration of black lavas that is marked by the appearance of white powdery thermonatrite with nahcolite on the lava surface. Subsequent reaction (weeks, months, years) of natrocarbonatite with meteoric water and the atmosphere results in the formation of pirssonite, gaylussite, shortite, trona, thermonatrite, nahcolite and calcite. Generally, the first important step is the formation of pirssonite and the end-members are calcite carbonate rocks or loose aggregates. Fumarolic activity is common for the active northern crater of the volcano. Reaction of hot (54–141 °C) fumarolic gases with natrocarbonatite leads to the formation of sulphur, gypsum, calcite, anhydrite, monohydrocalcite, barite and celestine. Changes in mineralogy of the natrocarbonatite lead to substantial chemical transformation. The most obvious chemical changes in this process are the loss of Na, K, Cl and S, combined with an increase in H₂O, Ca, Sr, Ba, F and Mn. The oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of altered natrocarbonatites shows a significant shift from the primary “Lengai Box” to high values of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C. Calcite exhibits δ¹³C values between − 2‰ and − 4‰ PDB and δ¹⁸O values of + 23‰ to + 26‰ SMOW. The observed assemblages of secondary minerals formed by reaction with atmosphere and meteoric water, the changes in chemical composition of the natrocarbonatite and field observations suggest that alteration of natrocarbonatite is an open-system low-temperature process. It takes place at temperatures between 8 and 43 °C with the addition of H₂O to the system and the removal of Na, K, Cl and S from the carbonatites. Low-temperature thermodynamic models developed for alkali carbonate systems can be used for the interpretation of Oldoinyo Lengai subsolidus mineralization.     

Groundwater study using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the central highlands of Eritrea

Remote sensing, evaluation of digital elevation models (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS) and fieldwork techniques were combined to study the groundwater conditions in Eritrea. Remote sensing data were interpreted to produce lithological and lineament maps. DEM was used for lineament and geomorphologic mapping. Field studies permitted the study of structures and correlated them with lineament interpretations. Hydrogeological setting of springs and wells were investigated in the field, from well logs and pumping test data. All thematic layers were integrated and analysed in a GIS. Results show that groundwater occurrence is controlled by lithology, structures and landforms. Highest yields occur in basaltic rocks and are due to primary and secondary porosities. High yielding wells and springs are often related to large lineaments, lineament intersections and corresponding structural features. In metamorphic and igneous intrusive rocks with rugged landforms, groundwater occurs mainly in drainage channels with valley fill deposits. Zones of very good groundwater potential are characteristic for basaltic layers overlying lateritized crystalline rocks, flat topography with dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels with valley fill deposits. The overall results demonstrate that the use of remote sensing and GIS provide potentially powerful tools to study groundwater resources and design a suitable exploration plan.The online version of the original article can be found at     

Effect of a submerged bay-mouth breakwater on tsunami behavior analyzed by 2D/3D hybrid model simulation

The hybrid numerical model had been developed to simulate a complicated 3D flow around structures generated by tsunami. In the model, the conventional 2D model is adopted for the wide region far from structures and the 3D non-hydrostatic pressure model is used in the limited region adjacent to structures. The applicability of the model is shown by comparisons of the numerical results with the experimental results of the laboratory model tests and the numerical analysis results of the conventional whole 2D simulation. In addition, the effect of a submerged structure at the opening of a breakwater is discussed from the numerical simulations by the hybrid model. The submerged structure improves the stability of the rubble mound and reduces the tsunami inflow into the bay, while it increases the water surface velocity around the opening of the breakwater. The increase of surface velocity causes the increases of impulsive forces by collision with drafts and so on.     

Water–rock interaction during the process of steam stimulation exploitation of viscous crude oil in Liaohe Shuguang Oil Field, Liaoning, China

In the process of steam stimulation exploitation of viscous crude oil, the injected water, at high temperature and under high pressure, reacts intensively with the host rock. This kind of water–rock interaction in Liaohe Shuguang Oil Field was studied on the basis of analysis of water composition changes, laboratory experiments, mineral saturation indices analysis, and mass balance calculation. Compared with the injected water, the changes of the composition of discharged water are mainly the distinct decrease of pH, Na⁺, SiO₂ and Cl⁻, as well as the increase of K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO ₄ ²⁻ and HCO ₃ ⁻ . Laboratory experiments under field conditions showed: the dissolution sequence of minerals quantitatively is quartz>potassium feldspar>albite, and the main change of clay minerals is the conversion of kaolinite to analcime. Mass balance calculation indicated during the process of steam stimulation, large quantities of analcime are precipitated with the dissolution of large amounts of quartz, kaolinite, potassium feldspar, and CO₂. These results correlated very well with the experimental results. The calculated results of Liaohe Shuguang Oil Field showed that during the steam stimulation for viscous crude oil, the amounts of minerals dissolved (precipitated) are huge. To control the clogging of pore spaces of oil reservoirs, increased study of water–rock interaction is needed.     

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using GIS

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been formulated as a Multi-Criteria Decision Making problem. The Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process were adopted as evaluating techniques, in which experts’ judgments were analyzed for objectively estimating and weighting control factors. Seven triggering factors, depicted in the form of maps, were identified and ordered according to their priority. These factors are (1) wind energy; (2) surface sediment; (3) vegetation density; (4) land use; (5) drainage density; (6) topographic change and (7) vegetation type. The factor maps were digitized, converted to raster data and overlaid to determine their possible spatial relationships. Applying a susceptibility model, a map of sand encroachment susceptibility in Kuwait was developed. The map showed that the areas of very high and high sand encroachment susceptibility are located within the main corridor of sand pathway that coincides with the northwesterly dominant wind direction.     

Experimental and numerical studies of rock salt strain hardening

The work presented in this paper comes as part of a research program dealing with the thermomechanical behaviour of rock salt. It aims to study laboratory and in-situ long-term behaviour by means of creep tests with deviator and temperature changes. The laboratory results, using a triaxial multi-stages creep tests, highlighted the strain hardening character of rock salt. Furthermore, the in-situ results, using a borehole dilatometer multi-step creep test, have shown that the drilling is carried out in a weakly stressed pillar. The interpretation of the laboratory results, using the J.LEMAITRE law, did not indicate full agreement with all the test results. As a result a ‘double’ J.LEMAITRE model, which takes into account a double strain hardening variable, has been put forward. The validation of this model on the laboratory creep tests is very satisfactory. Furthermore, the activation energy seems satisfactory to represent the influence of the temperature. The in-situ behaviour modelling is clearly more complex than the modelization based on laboratory tests. In fact, it seems that if the rock salt behaviour is maintained by J.LEMAITRE law, it is necessary to vary with the stress, at least, one of the parameters assumed constant in the basic law.