宝天高速公路沿线保护生态环境总经济价值评估

条件价值评估法是当前国际上流行的衡量环境物品非利用经济价值的唯一方法。通过调查居民针对不同环境状况变化的支付意愿,从而定量确定环境状况变化带来的经济效益和损失。针对宝天高速公路修建过程中沿线保护生态环境的问题,用支付卡的方法设计了320份调查问卷,调查了沿线居民对保护宝天高速公路沿线生态环境的支付意愿(WTP)。结果表明:在宝天高速公路修路过程中采取各种技术措施,使沿线的生态环境尽可能保持原样,沿线总共有84.33%的居民家庭有支付意愿,有支付意愿家庭的平均支付意愿为每年每户62.17元,将这一结果推广到面上,得到保护宝天高速公路沿线生态环境的总经济价值为:5781 756元。     

Economic and ecosystem costs and benefits of alternative land use and management scenarios in the Lake Rotorua,New Zealand,catchment

A significant challenge in resource management is addressed: the perceived trade-off between economic growth and ecosystem restoration and conservation. Traditional approaches to management regard restoration as a potential cost to economic productivity. In this study we show that by considering a broader range of economic values, including ecosystem services values, an argument can be made that restoration of lake ecosystems also leads to favourable economic outcomes when commonly disregarded values are considered. Our case study analyses the ecological outcomes of different catchment mitigation and land use scenarios in terms of water quality results in a lake, assessing changes in land use values based on opportunity costs, and ecosystem services values. We show that when considering the value of ecosystem services, intensive agricultural land use is not necessarily the most economically valuable form of land use within a lake catchment. Indeed, a shift towards alternative land uses within a catchment can lead to both ongoing economic benefits and improvements in water quality. In this context, land-use change offers an option for water quality improvement that minimises lake and land mitigation costs, while adding value to catchment land use. An argument is made supporting land use change towards indigenous forest types, which can sustain alternative sources of income such as a range of recreational values, while supporting important ecosystem functions for the region.     

油气资源评价中成因法分析与运聚系数取值模型研究

成因法是油气资源评价中常用的方法,能较好地体现含油气盆地的生烃、排烃、运聚等过程,具有明确的地质意义,可用来计算油气资源量的"上限值"。其中运聚系数取值是成因法计算的重难点,因此有必要建立一个简单有效并能体现出成因法计算特点的运聚系数取值模型。本文从成因法的自身特点出发,分析了目前运聚系数取值存在的问题,初步建立了运聚系数取值模型。该模型将计算过程分为排烃过程、运移过程、聚集过程、储存过程、破坏过程、资源比例过程这6个过程,并分别设立了6个过程中各项参数的取值依据。最后通过2个刻度区的实例验证,证明该取值模型准确度较高,在中-低勘探程度地区适用性较高,在高勘探程度地区适用性中等。     

基于多传感器估值融合理论的地质灾害变形监测方法研究

在开展地质灾害变形监测的过程中,由于传感器采集数据结果会受到客观环境的影响而出现异常情况,导致对变形情况的监测结果与实际情况存在较大误差,为此,提出基于多传感器估值融合理论的地质灾害变形监测方法研究。在对多传感器数据进行预处理阶段,引入了估值融合理论,具体采用的融合算法为最小误差均方差法,利用其对传感器采集数据结果中的异常值进行校正。在变形监测阶段,充分利用了多个数据源（传感器）对同一目标进行观测时的特征构成,结合观测特征、实时状态数据与发展函数三者之间的关系,实现对地质灾害变形情况的有效监测。在测试结果中,设计方法能够获取某地铁隧道水平方向上和垂直方向上的位移结果,具有较高的可靠性和精度。     

运用开放式条件估值方法评估恢复额济纳旗生态系统服务的总经济价值

条件估值方法(CVM)是当前国际上流行的衡量环境物品非利用经济价值的主要方法之一,它通过调查居民针对恢复或改善环境状况变化的支付意愿,从而定量地估计环境状况变化带来的经济效益和损失.针对黑河流域额济纳旗生态系统恶化的现状,以开放式问卷的调查方法设计了500份调查问卷,调查了黑河流域居民恢复额济纳旗生态系统的支付意愿,并采用非参数分析方法对结果进行分析.结果表明,用20年的时间将额济纳旗的生态系统恢复到80年代初的水平,黑河流域总共有93.2%的居民家庭存在支付意愿,有支付意愿家庭的平均支付意愿为每年每户44.9元,同时采用列联表检验的方法辨明了被调查者的年龄、学历、收入、户籍和居住的地理区域等因素对支付意愿的影响.最后在综合不同区域居民支付意愿差异的基础上,采用当前的市场利率将计算结果在时空尺度上加总,得到恢复黑河下游额济纳生态系统的总经济价值的现值为1.224×10⁸元.     

农耕地地价评估方法的探讨——以南京市六合县玉带乡为例

本文提出了一种新的农耕地地价评估方法。在南京市六合县玉带乡的实例研究表明,这一方法简明、实用、有较好的可操作性,且评估出的地价有较高精度     

The value of recreational fishing in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia: A pooled revealed preference and contingent behaviour model

Given the focus on protecting natural assets in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park in Australia, it is important for managers and policy makers to understand the value of recreational fishing in the area, and how changes in management may affect those recreational values. Travel cost methods were used to estimate the value of recreational fishing in the Capricorn Coast in Central Queensland using data from on-site surveys conducted at boat ramps. The study also uses contingent behaviour models to estimate the change in the value of recreational fishing as conditions vary. Results indicate that there are high values associated with recreational fishing activity along the Capricorn Coast, and that the demand for recreational fishing is inelastic and that values are relatively insensitive to changes in catch rates.     

专家克里金插值法在空间插值中的应用

克里金插值是一种进行局部估值的方法,但它并不能对局部的地质特征进行智能分析.因此,在很多时候其插值结果不能体现数据的一种局部异构特征.针对这一问题,提出了一种专家克里金插值法,这种方法是在普通克里金插值法的基础上加入专家地质知识,使得插值结果更能符合实际的地质情况.对该方法的原理、模型进行了详细的论述,并通过实例验证该方法的有效性.     

条件价值评估法的发展与应用

环境物品或生态系统服务的经济价值评估是国际上生态经济学、环境经济学研究的前沿领域。由于绝大多数环境物品或生态系统服务的公共物品特性，其经济价值的评估需要运用非市场的价值评估技术。条件价值评估法（CVM）是非市场价值评估技术中应用最广、影响最大的一种方法。详细介绍了国际上CVM及其发展与应用研究的现状，分析了CVM在环境价值评估技术中的地位及其理论基础，总结了最大支付意愿（WTP）的各种引导技术，全面归纳了CVM研究中可能出现的各种偏差及其相应的解决方法，简要介绍了最大支付意愿的数据统计分析方法。     

The importance of deliberation in valuing ecosystem services in developing countries—Evidence from the Solomon Islands

Monetary valuation of ecosystem services enables more accurate accounting of the environmental costs and benefits of policies, but this has rarely been applied in developing countries. In such contexts, there are particular methodological and epistemological challenges that require novel valuation methodologies. This paper introduces a new participatory, deliberative choice experiment approach conducted in the Solomon Islands. The research aimed to determine the value people placed on ecosystem services and whether participatory interventions to elicit deeper held values influenced the preferences expressed. Results found that the initial willingness to pay for a number of tropical forest ecosystem services amounted to 30% of household income. Following deliberative intervention exercises, key ecosystem services effectively became priceless as participants were unwilling to trade them off in the choice experiment scenarios, regardless of financial cost. The group based deliberative approach, combined with participatory interventions, also resulted in significant learning for participants. This included a more sophisticated view of ecological-cultural linkages, greater recognition of deeper held values, and greater awareness of the consequences of human actions for the environment. The use of a group-based participatory approach instead of a conventional individual survey helped to overcome many of the practical difficulties associated with valuation in developing countries. Given the impact of learning on valuation outcomes, participation and deliberation should be integrated into valuation of any complex good, both in developing and developed economies. However, such a methodology raises questions about how valuation can deal with unwillingness to trade-off key ecosystem services, which results in the breakdown of monetary valuation methods. Evaluation of the appropriateness of valuation processes and methodologies for assessing deeper held values and use of mixed-method approaches will be essential to ensure policies take into account the extent to which human life is dependent on ecosystem services.