粘弹性数值模拟龙门山断裂带应力积累及大震复发周期

2008年5月12日在低地形变速率的龙门山断裂带上突发汶川强震,引发人们对该地震孕震机制的思考。本文根据GPS观测资料确定边界条件,通过三维粘弹性数值模拟探讨了汶川地震的孕震机理,计算了该区域岩石圈的应力增加速率和积累过程,以及汶川地震同震应力变化与震后应力松弛,在此基础上估算了汶川8.0级大地震的复发周期。数值模拟结果表明:印度板块对欧亚板块的推挤造成青藏高原的物质东流,高原中、下地壳物质在龙门山断裂带处遭到相对坚硬的四川盆地的阻挡之后,部分中、下地壳物质在龙门山断裂带下堆积产生应力集中。两个重要因素为应力集中提供了重要控制作用:其一是青藏高原中、下地壳较低的粘滞系数与四川盆地中、下地壳较高的粘滞系数的差异,其二是从青藏高原到四川盆地的Moho面深度在龙门山断裂带的突变。低应变速率的龙门断裂带岩石圈在数千年时间尺度的应力积累过程中,脆性上地壳的应力随时间近乎线性增长,并且上地壳深部的应力增长率超过浅部,6000年内应力积累最大量达到-21.6MPa,应力增长速率为-0.0036MPa/a;而柔性的中、下地壳以及岩石圈上地幔的应力在增长一段时间之后趋于稳定。在空间上,龙门山断裂带受到的压应力从断层西南向北东方向逐渐减小,而剪应力从西南到北东方向逐渐增大,应力状态有利于地震发生时断层的破裂方式从西南的逆冲运动向北东的逆冲兼走滑运动的方式发展。通过应力积累与地震应力降的计算得到汶川8.0级大地震的复发周期约为5400年。     

个旧市区寻找地下水供水水源地的可行性探讨

个旧市处于红河和南盘江两大水系分水岭地带,地表分水岭与地下水分水岭不一致。地下水主要受降雨量、地质构造、地层岩性的控制。岩溶水是地下水供水水源地勘查对象。     

Estimating phytolith influx in lake sediments

So far, no phytolith extraction protocols have been tested for accuracy and repeatability. Here we aim to display a phytolith extraction method combining the strengths of two widely used protocols, supplemented with silica microspheres as exogenous markers for quantifying phytolith concentrations. Phytolith concentrations were estimated for samples from two sedimentary sequences in which numerical age–depth models make it possible to calculate phytolith influxes (phytolith numbers per cm²per yr). Analysis of replicates confirmed the statistical robustness, the repeatability and the very few biases of our extraction technique for small phytoliths, since the relationship between grass silica short cells and microspheres was kept stable. Furthermore, we demonstrated that silica microspheres are robust exogenous markers for estimating phytolith concentrations. The minimum number of items (i.e., phytoliths plus silica microspheres) that must be counted to estimate phytolith concentrations and thus influxes depends on the ratio of phytoliths to microspheres (R) and is minimized when R = 1. Nevertheless, we recommend using ratios R ≤ 1 in order to avoid having the counting process become excessively time-consuming, because microspheres are easier to identify and count than phytoliths.     

北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅱ:6个CMIP5耦合模式预估的未来RCP4.5情景下的变化

利用 CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）的6个气候耦合模式中等排放情景———RCP4?5（典型浓度路径4?5）下的模拟结果对北半球温带气旋数目、风暴路径和强度的未来变化进行了研究分析。结果表明：（1）相对于20世纪后半叶,RCP4?5情景下的2053—2100年,虽然各模式的模拟结果存在一定的区域性差异,但共同显示了至21世纪末北半球整体温带气旋生成将减少,较低纬度减少得更显著。（2）模式较一致地模拟出未来北半球温带气旋的中心气压有降低的趋势,涡度强度将线性减弱。大多数的模式模拟得到北大西洋风暴轴未来将继续向极地偏移,但强度主要将减弱;过半的模式显示北太平洋风暴轴也将向极地偏移,强度变化则随季节的不同而不同。（3）6个模式的模拟结果均显示对流层中高层斜压区未来将向高层和高纬度扩展,南半球的变化更为显著。斜压区的变化在某种程度上反映了风暴轴的类似变化,因此, 这也支持了北太平洋和北大西洋风暴路径未来可能向极地偏移的结论。RCP4?5情景下北半球整体温带气旋活动将显著减少,但斜压区和风暴轴向高纬度的偏移将使较低纬度未来温带气旋活动减少得更为显著。     

Study of deposition of fine sediment within the pores of a coarse sediment bed stream

Elaborate experiments were performed in a 30 m long, 0.5 m deep and 0.2 m wide laboratory flume to study the process of infiltration of fine sediment into the pores of coarse sediment forming the channel bed material. Different concentrations of suspended load of fine sediment of size 0.064 mm were passed over the channel bed made up of three different types of coarse sediments; two uniform and one nonuniform. The proportion of fine sediment infiltrated into the pores of bed material for each equilibrium concentration of suspended load of fine sediment in the flow was studied during several experimental runs. The proportion of fine sediment within the pores of bed material increased with an increase in the equilibrium concentration of suspended load of fine sediment in the flow. This process continued till the pores within the coarse sediment bed were filled up to the capacity with the fine sediment transported by the flow in suspension. The theoretical value was identified for limit for maximum proportion of fine sediment that can be present within the pores of bed material. On further increase in the concentration of suspended load of fine sediment in the flow, deposition of fine sediment occurs on the surface of the flume bed in the form of ripples of the fine sediment. This condition is defined as 'depositional condition'. Experimental observations on these and related aspects are presented herein.     

Licence Banks as a tool to mitigate corporate control of fisheries: A British Columbia groundfish example

This paper provides an example of how one group of fishermen, operating in an ITQ fishery in British Columbia, Canada, used a licence bank to attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of ITQs. After ten years in operation, the licence bank is self-sustaining and has realized modest and limited success. The authors identify a number of lessons learned from the experience, as well as highlight the opportunities that licence banks offer as an alternative mechanism to redress the negative consequences of ITQs.     

The Interference of Higher-Order Statistics of the Concentration Field Produced by Two Point Sources According to a Generalized Fluctuating Plume Model

The higher-order correlation functions for the concentrationfluctuations arising from a two-point-source configuration have beencalculated analytically within the context of the phenomenology of afluctuating plume model (viz., a meandering plume model that explicitlyincorporates internal fluctuations). Explicit expressions for thesecond-, third-, and fourth-order correlationfunctions between the concentrationfluctuations produced by two point sources are given in terms of the sourceseparation d and the five physically based parameters that define thegeneralized fluctuating plume model: namely, the absolute plume dispersion,_a, which determines the outer plume length scale; the relative plume dispersion, _r, which determines the inner plume length scale; the fluctuation intensity, i_r, in relative coordinates, which determines the internal concentration fluctuation level; the correlation coefficient, r,between the positions of the centroids of the two interfering plumes; and,the correlation coefficient, r^*, between the concentration fluctuationsof the two plumes in relative coordinates, which determines the degree ofinternal mixing of the two scalars. Furthermore, the form of the totalconcentration probability density function arising from the interferenceproduced by two point sources is presented. Predictions for the second-ordercorrelation function, , and for the total concentration probabilitydensity function have been compared with some new experimental data fora two-point-source configuration in grid turbulence generated in awater-channel simulation. These results are in good agreement with the dataand suggest that the analytical model for the second-order correlationfunction and the total concentration probability density function canreproduce many qualitative trends in the interaction of plumes from twosources.     

Concentrations and distribution of trace metals of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> and TSP particles collected in the qingdao area

Aerosol samples of PM₁₀ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10μm) and TSP (total suspended particles) were simultaneously collected from April 2001 to March 2002 at the top of Mount Baguan on the downtown campus of Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China. The concentrations of Al, Fe, Mn, Cu, Pb and Zn were determined by means of inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES). The monthly variability of the mass concentrations of aerosol particles and the concentrations of trace metals are presented and discussed. The distribution pattern of these metals in PM₁₀ and TSP is also discussed. During the observation period, the mass concentration of PM₁₀ at this site ranged from 13.80 to 306.42 μgm⁻³, while that of TSP ranged from 31.02 to 568.82μgm⁻³. Both PM₁₀ and TSP reached their highest concentrations in springtime, while the lowest values occurred in summertime. The concentrations of crustal metals followed the same variation pattern, while those of anthropogenic metals did not. A closer examination led to the conclusion that anthropogenic metals are mainly from local sources. The average concentration ratios of anthropogenic metals in PM₁₀ to TSP were higher than the average mass ratio of PM₁₀ to TSP, suggesting that there was a higher proportion of anthropogenic metals on smaller particles although there were a few exceptions. For crustal metals, however, the metal concentration ratios were close to the particle mass ratio, indicating that the distribution of crustal metals was much more homogeneous on aerosol particles with different sizes. The correlation analysis indicated that Al, Fe and Mn were originated from similar sources and were mainly controlled by the particle mass, while Cu, Pb and Zn were predominated by local anthropogenic sources, with Pb and Zn having similar origins.     

地球形成理论研究进展

本文概述了太阳系角动量分布，地球的物质来源，地球的形成方式，地核和地幔的形成几个总理研究的进展。     

九岭及武功隆起高岭土矿床成矿特征及应用初探

根据对赣西(九岭、武功)高岭土成矿地质条件的分析,探讨该区寻找花岗岩类风化残积型高岭土矿床成矿地质特征和工业利用问题.