中国区域1961~2010年降水集中指数(PCI)的变化及月分配特征

降水的年内变化(月分配和季节变化)对农作物生长、水资源利用及管理具有重要意义,同时也是增暖背景下水循环发生变化的关键过程之一。降水集中指数(PCI,Precipitation Concentration Index)能较好的表征降水的年内集中程度,被广泛应用于相关研究。本文利用中国583个站点1961~2010年的逐月降水和气温观测资料,对中国及各典型区域的PCI进行了计算分析,研究了PCI的气候特征、变化趋势、降水月分配变化及PCI与气温季节较差的关系。结果表明,我国PCI的气候态呈现出由东南向西北逐渐递增的空间分布格局。湿润区PCI在11~17之间,年内降水较为均匀;半湿润区PCI为17~24;半干旱区PCI在24~27之间;而干旱区PCI则由27至47不等,降水集中程度较高。除华南地区外,1961~2010年间全国大部分地区PCI均呈现显著的下降趋势,并于1980年前后发生跃变,降水集中程度大幅降低,其中西北西部地区PCI 下降速率最大,为－2.47 (10 a-1)。华南地区PCI的变化则具有明显的阶段性特征,2003年以前呈弱的下降趋势,但2003年PCI发生突变,降水集中程度大幅增加。对典型区域的比较发现,干旱半干旱区和青藏高原降水集中程度的降低主要表现在夏季降水占全年总降水量比例的减小;而湿润区PCI和降水月分配的变化则存在明显的区域性差异,其中西南地区8~12月降水占全年降水的比例减少,而长江中下游及华南地区春秋季降水占全年降水的比例减小,冬夏季降水所占比例增大。     

敦煌春季沙尘天气过程中某些参量和影响因子的变化特征

利用中日合作"风送沙尘的形成、输送机制及其对气候与环境影响(ADEC)的研究"项目敦煌站的观测资料,分析了2001年和2002年春季沙尘天气过程中两个沙尘参量———沙尘浓度指数(DCI)和粒子数浓度(N(d))的变化以及摩擦速度(u )和风速(u)与地面风蚀起沙的关系。结果表明:可用DCI=0.2作为扬沙、浮尘等一般沙尘天气的临界值,DCI=0.4作为沙尘暴天气的临界值;沙地和农田上起沙的临界摩擦速度分别约为0.5m·s-1和0.3m·s-1,临界风速分别约为7m·s-1和3m·s-1。农田和沙地起沙临界摩擦速度的差异,导致绿洲站沙尘天气发生的频数比沙漠站大;与地面起沙量有关的总沙尘粒子数浓度N(d>0.5μm)近似与u2 成比例。     

CONCENTRATION AND VELOCITY OF DEBRIS FLOWS

1 RESISTANCE TO WATER-STONE FLOW As a special sort of debris flow, water-stone flow, or as generally called, sub-viscous debris flow, always occurs in channel of steep slope, dominantly in composition of coarse grains of bedload and laminated load with less suspended load. In some literature, water-stone flow is defined for convenience of study as that without suspended fine grains in composition, and it follows from this definition that transportation concentration of this kind of …     

老挝中-东部大型铁铜金矿矿集区矿床地质--对云南"三江"地区找金的启示

矿集区分布在NW向川塘-长山华力西断皱带南西缘，系多陆块拼接缝合构造环境。印支-燕山期-喜马拉雅期花岗岩类岩浆活动及其相关的成矿作用，通过高效率浓集机制，形成一串锡、铁、铜、金等矽卡岩型、斑岩型和热液型矿床，组成矿床系列，包括多个超大型、大型矿床。这些成因上密切相关的矿床，成矿时间显然相近，却处在不同岩浆活动阶段和不同地质环境中，矿化特征有明显差异，矿种和矿化类型在时空分布上具有规律：印支-燕山期的花岗岩侵入阶段形成矽卡岩型富磁铁矿矿床；在花岗岩浆分异演化浅成相侵入阶段，形成矽卡岩型及岩浆晚期、自交代产生的斑岩型；而最后形成岩浆期后热液型铁-金、铜、金矿床。文章侧重讨论铁、铜、金矿床系列的成矿构造环境、岩浆作用、物质来源及高效率浓集机制，对云南“三江”地区找金有重要启示。     

Influence of shear speed and normal stress on the shear behavior and shear zone structure of granular materials in naturally drained ring shear tests

“Sliding Surface Liquefaction” is a process causing strength loss and consequent rapid motion and long runout of certain landslides. Using a new ring shear apparatus with a transparent shear-box and digital video camera system, shear-speed-controlled tests were conducted on mixed grains (mixture of three different sizes of sand and gravel) and mixed beads to study shear behavior and shear zone development process under the naturally drained condition in which pore pressure is allowed to dissipate through the opened upper drainage valve during shearing. Higher excess pore water pressure and lower minimum apparent friction were observed in the tests where grain crushing was more extensive under higher normal stress and higher shear speed. Along with the diffusion of silty water generated by grain crushing, smaller particles were transported upward and downward from the shear zone. Concentration of larger grains to the central and upper part of the shear zone was confirmed by means of visual observation together with grain size analysis of sliced samples from several layers after the test. On the other hand, smaller particles were accumulated mostly below the layer where larger grains were accumulated. The reason why larger grains were accumulated into the shear zone may be interpreted as follows: grains under shearing are also subjected to vertical movement, the penetration resistance of larger grains into a layer of moving particles is smaller than that into the static layer. Therefore, larger grains tend to move into the layer of moving grains. At the same time, smaller particles can drop into the pores of underlying larger grains downward due to gravity.     

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.