几种非线性滤波算法的性能比较与分析

在非线性状态估计中,传统的扩展卡尔曼滤波通过线性化来实现高斯近似,由于截断误差的存在很难保证估计精度;而基本粒子滤波容易出现粒子退化,导致滤波发散。针对粒子滤波的两个基本假设：蒙特卡罗假设和重要采样假设,采用蒙特卡罗随机链的方法来提高粒子的多样性,并利用无味卡尔曼滤波来产生更高精度的替代分布,发展了无味粒子滤波。通过仿真实验证明,相比较扩展卡尔曼滤波和基本粒子滤波,改进后的无味粒子滤波算法性能更优越,对含有非线性非高斯的状态估计问题有更好的滤波效果。     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

龙羊峡水库年入库径流的Markov预测模型

Markov预测技术是应用Markov链的相关预测的基本原理与方法来研究分析时间序列的变化规律,并预测其未来变化趋势的一种预报方法,适用于随机波动较大的预报问题。根据Markov链原理,提出了一个用于龙羊峡水库年平均入库径流预报的离散随机过程模型。实测资料的验证结果表明,这种模型计算精度较高,具有良好应用价值。     

Case history of the disastrous debris flows of Tianmo Watershed in Bomi County,Tibet, China: Some mitigation suggestions

Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace.     

孙水河流域地质灾害时空分布及链式规律研究

20世纪90年代至今,我国先后以行政区为单元对地质灾害开展了1：50万至1：5万的调查工作,为我国地质灾害防治规划和土地利用规划提供了科学依据。近年来随着城镇化建设加快,小流域内地质灾害严重制约着城镇建设和发展。本文结合孙水河小流域地质灾害调查研究,研究了流域内孕灾环境条件、灾害演变模式、成灾规律等工作。取得以下几点认识：（1）2012年8月31日,孙水河流域遭遇两百年一遇特大暴雨,日降雨量达149.2mm,诱发大量的地质灾害,呈现出数量多、规模大、密度高等特点。（2）在空间上呈线-带-片状特性发育分布,表现为：沿重要交通干线成昆铁路、县级公路、乡村公路呈线状密集分布; 沿河流两岸呈带状密集分布等特点。（3）时间分布规律受降雨作用控制明显; 地质灾害形成与降雨强度、降雨历时和过程降雨量等呈正相关性。暴雨是地质灾害形成的主要因素之一,而且其连锁效应常形成灾害链,构成群发性灾害。（4）灾害链发生模式主要有：暴雨滑坡堰塞坝堆积坝溃决洪水; 暴雨泥石流堰塞体堆积坝溃决洪水; 暴雨弃渣滑坡、泥石流; 暴雨洪水岸坡失稳淤埋、雍高河道。     

A modified method to estimate chain inverse catenary profile in clay based on chain equation and chain yield envelope

Offshore floating facilities are fixed by anchoring systems embedded in seabed soils through chains or ropes. The chain inverse catenary profile embedded in soils influences both the anchor failure mechanism and the anchor holding capacity. The chain mobilizes varying soil normal and tangential resistances during motion, hence it is with difficulty to depict the chain profile. The present work proposed a modified method to estimate the chain inverse catenary profile with high accuracy based on the chain equations and the chain yield envelope. A testing arrangement with three load cells and two MEMS (Micro-electromechanical systems) accelerometers included was designed in model tests. By model tests, the loading combinations of the soil tangential and normal resistances on the chain were obtained and the yield envelopes for both chain and rope were determined. In addition, supplemental model tests were performed to validate the modified method proposed in this study, and the testing results indicated that the estimated chain inverse catenary profile was in good agreement with the actual one. Moreover, the testing arrangement is beneficial in investigating the chain-soil-anchor interaction.     

夏威夷-皇帝海山链成因机制—古地磁学约束

夏威夷-皇帝海山链位于北太平洋中部,是一条自西北至东南延伸的海底火山链,并在47 Ma存在一个方向弯折。厘定这一特征的成因机制和运动学过程,是西太平洋海区软流圈与岩石圈相互作用以及跨圈层物质能量交换的关键科学问题,对于解译东亚大陆动力学演化过程亦具有重要意义。目前对于夏威夷-皇帝海山链47 Ma弯折的机制有两种争论：太平洋板块运动方向改变和热点移动。古地磁学是研究大陆漂移和板块演化的最有效手段之一,其最大优势是可以定量化研究地质历史时期中岩石圈板块的运动学过程。本文首先通过回顾与总结前人对夏威夷-皇帝海山链成因及转向机制的研究,重点探讨古地磁学在该问题上所提供的约束证据,并对存在的关键科学问题进行了梳理和展望。     

Abschätzung der Eignung einer molekularbiologischen Methode zur Charakterisierung der Grundwasserbiozönose

Assessing the Suitability of a Molecularbiological Method To Characterise the Microbial Populations in Groundwater A molecularbiological technique was used to characterise the bacterial community structure of groundwater habitats. This method consists of the isolation of bacterial DNA from the samples, amplification of 16S rDNA by PCR (polymerase chain reaction), and separation of the amplified DNA by DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis). By using more specific primer combinations in the PCR instead of universal eubacterial primers, also groups of microorganisms (Proteobacteria, sulfate reducer, Archaea) were determined. The resulting DGGE patterns that reflect the microbial diversity are compared and differences or similarities evaluated. In the present studies, groundwater from different sites (bank filtrate, artificially recharged groundwater, and natural groundwater) and with changing redox milieus (aerobic, anaerobic) were investigated as well as the solid aquifer material. Besides, samples were taken from the different stages of artificial groundwater recharge, i.e., from surface water to the drain tile. Samples from groundwater derived from sites with different hydrogeochemical or hydrological conditions like bank filtrate and recharged groundwater revealed great differences in DGGE patterns indicating a characteristic species composition in these habitats, while samples taken at different times from the same groundwater showed only small seasonal variations. Clearly different patterns were also found for groundwater and the adjacent solid material as well as for anaerobic and aerobic groundwaters. Looking at artificial groundwater recharge, almost identical patterns were found in raw water and samples from gravel and sand filtration. DGGE patterns from the resulting groundwater indicated a total change in community structure during underground passage. By using group specific primers, Desulfovibrionaceae, Desulfobacteriaceae, and Archaea could be detected in anaerobic groundwaters.The molecularbiological approach described here gives an increasingly comprehensive and more precise picture of the microbial population of different environments. It is especially suitable to compare the community structure from different habitats or to analyse changes for example due to environmental stress at the same site.     

马尔科夫链法在西成矿田中泥盆统沉积相分析中的应用

根据西成矿田中泥盆统安家岔组和西汉水组具有多旋回性的特点，运用马尔科夫链分析法对其进行沉积相的划分，总结出中泥盆世处于海洋环境，并可划分为４个相带：陆缘碎屑岩相带、碳酸盐台地相带、台地边缘相带及浅海陆棚碎屑岩相带，进一步分为１１个相和２２个亚相。