Population growth and its spatial distribution as factors in the deforestation of Nang Rong, Thailand

Frontiers constitute a major source of global land cover change hot spots, with forests and grasslands being converted into agricultural uses. As such, frontiers provide an opportunity to see how people manipulate the land and their lives in the context of social, cultural and environmental constraints. This paper examines frontier settlement and land cover change in Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand for the last half century. It uses a Cellular Automata (CA) model to explore the land cover consequences of alternative patterns of settlement in a setting where people establish dwelling units in nucleated villages and work agricultural plots that surround villages. Forested land around the center of a village is converted into agricultural uses in an inverse relationship to the distance from the village center, but frequently modified by biophysical conditions. Land at the center of the village may be reforested after the village is established as a source of shade as well as fruit and other products. Model variation in land cover change is more sensitive to the spatial reach of village households than their temporal reach, suggesting the important role that technology plays in how villagers travel to their fields (walking versus motorized transit).     

基于约束性CA的大都市郊区城镇增长的情景模拟与管控——以武汉市江夏区为例

大都市郊区是快速城镇化进程中空间演变最为频繁、人地矛盾最为突出的区域,尤其在中国加快推进“就地就近”城镇化战略的背景下,把握大都市郊区小城镇土地利用时空变化过程及其演变机制,对制定科学合理的管控政策和优化都市空间结构具有重要的现实意义。约束性元胞自动机(constrained Cellular Automata, constrained CA)能够通过简单的规则模拟复杂的城市动态演化过程。本文将土地利用总体规划指标、城镇空间发展战略布局、土地利用开发适宜性等,嵌入约束性CA的转换规则中,采用Logistic逐步回归法分析土地利用空间影响因素,对严格约束下的武汉市江夏区2020年土地利用进行情景模拟分析,并提出城市增长管控手段。结果表明：①研究时段内,江夏区城镇用地呈低效外延式扩张,土地利用集约节约程度较低,其人口规模并未有较大增长,对主城区人口的分散作用尚未真正形成;②约束性CA在模拟大都市郊区演化方面具有较高的可靠性,能够真实反映近郊小城镇的未来空间布局与结构,模拟结果与土地利用规划和城市规划较为契合;③将规划目标导向与现实发展趋势下的模拟结果进行叠加分析,可确定城镇增长需求与规划指标调控间冲突的空间分布,从而划定土地督察的重点监测区域,为加强大都市近郊区的违法用地监查和土地利用管控提供先验的预警知识。     

AutoPaCA:耦合过程-模式的城镇空间增长模拟模型

理解城镇增长过程、模式、机理并预判未来发展趋势,对优化城镇空间布局,促进城市可持续发展有重要意义。元胞自动机模型（Cellular Automata, CA）是研究城镇增长过程、模式的有效技术手段,但传统CA模型对城镇增长过程和空间模式的协同考虑不足。本研究构建了基于斑块（Patch）的城镇CA模型AutoPaCA,实现对城镇增长过程及空间模式的协同表征和精细控制,将城镇增长过程分为边缘增长和跳跃增长两种形式,并实现了对不同形式下城镇斑块位置、形状和面积大小的精细控制,同时考虑城镇空间模式的集聚性、整体形态及空间约束。此外,还提出使用景观格局分析法分析历史时期城镇增长过程和模式,并结合遗传算法实现对模型参数的地域化自动校正,降低人为主观因素对模拟结果的影响。将模型应用于长沙市1995—2035年的城镇增长模拟与多情景分析。结果表明,构建的AutoPaCA模型可以取得较好的模型精度,200次模拟结果的互异邻域相似性指数均值达到0.486;在生态保护情景下,长沙市城市内部生态结构保存完好,且表现出更为明显的长株潭一体化趋势,说明本研究提出的AutoPaCA模型及参数校正方法是有效的。     

海湾型半城市化地区空间形态演化模拟

元胞自动机（CA）是模拟城市土地利用演变过程的有效工具,转换规则和元胞邻域是元胞模型的核心。综合考虑元胞邻域的距离衰减效应,基于模拟退火算法（SA）挖掘最优的转换规则,文章构建了一种考虑邻域衰减的城市演化模型（SA-NDCA）。模型以负幂指数函数作为元胞邻域的衰减曲线表示元胞邻域的距离衰减效应;运用模拟退火优化算法计算城市CA模型模拟结果与样本点的累积差异,在目标解空间快速搜索以提取最优的转换规则;最后以厦门市半城市化地区为研究案例,模拟了研究区域1995―2010年期间的城市空间形态演化,通过混淆矩阵和Kappa系数评价了模型的模拟精度,1995―2010年期间的建设用地模拟精度为68.5%,总体精度达到86.2%,Kappa系数达到66.3,取得了较好的模拟效果。利用提出的SA-NDCA模型,成功模拟了研究区2010―2020年期间的城市空间形态演化,结果显示,所预测的演化情景与中国当前实施的新型城镇化战略十分契合。     

岩石破裂过程的自组织临界特征初探

自组织临界状态。是广延耗散动力学系统所普遍具有的行为特征。实验表明，岩石破裂过程也具有自组织临界特征。本文运用数学－力学分析和计算机模拟等手段。研究了岩石破裂过程中所现出的累进性破坏及无序向有序演化等特征的内在机理，从而加深了岩石破裂失稳定过程机制的认识。     

基于RS和GIS的生态足迹分析

1IntroductionIn recent years the ecological footprint (EF), originally developed by Wackernagel and Rees in the mid-1990s (Wackernagel and Rees W, 1996; 1997), has gained much attention in Ecological Economics. This method tracks natural resources consump…     

内嵌空间聚类算法的分区地理元胞自动机建模与应用

传统的地理元胞自动机(Geo-Cellular Automata;GeoCA)模型,大多采用统一的转换规则驱动元胞空间内的所有元胞进行演变。然而,许多地理现象都存在着空间异质性,统一的元胞转换规则忽略了空间异质性的存在。针对这一问题,本文提出了空间聚类的分区地理元胞自动机模型,采用空间聚类算法对元胞空间进行分区,对不同的分区分别求取转换规则,以此来提高地理元胞自动机的模拟精度。以杭州市为案例区,采用本文提出的空间聚类的分区地理元胞自动机模型,对研究区2000-2005年的城市用地变化进行了模拟。结果表明:与采用统一转换规则的GeoCA相比,引入空间聚类算法的分区GeoCA具有较高的模拟精度,尤其是在空间形态和整体结构上,具有较好的模拟效果。     

细胞自动机在地震波传播研究中的应用

本文基于细胞自动机在地震波传播研究中的最近成果,阐述了其基本的研究思路与理论框架,给出了一个计算实例．在此基础上就细胞自动机方法与传统波动方程的衔接关系及复杂介质中地震波正反问题作了讨论,并对研究前景进行展望．     

Exploring the impacts of future tourism development on land use/cover changes

Land use/cover changes (LUCC) are central to tourism because land is used in multiple ways as a resource for tourism-focused activities. Tourism is essentially a geographical phenomenon, encompassing the movement and flow of people (seen as the demand side) and spatial distribution patterns relating to land use consumption (seen as the supply side). However, the impacts of tourism on LUCC are difficult to track and monitor. Contributing factors of this problem include a lack of empirical studies, shortage of micro-level LUCC datasets, and scarce methodological frameworks which can be used for assessments. This paper aims to provide a LUCC modelling approach in order to explore the impacts of tourism development on built-up areas. We developed a Cellular automata model (CA) which integrates Markovian transition probabilities and logistic regression transition suitability maps. LUCC rules for tourism development are framed within the national land use policy guidelines for the development of new tourism accommodation establishments (TAE). This primarily takes into consideration land cover compatibility and the proposed development's proximity to the coastline.Three scenarios were established to explore the impacts of tourism development in LUCC for the year 2020 in a Portuguese coastal region: business as usual (BAU); tourism trends (TOUR); and natural restrictions (NATR). TOUR results indicate that the tourism and urban land use/cover growth is higher and focuses heavily on the coastal region (within 5,000 m) when compared to the other scenarios. The overall results for BAU and NATR show a general convergence with the land use policy guidelines in terms of tourism nucleation and new TAE distance to the coastline.     

Isolation, characterization of Rhodococcus sp. P14 capable of degrading high-molecular-weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and aliphatic hydrocarbons

Rhodococcus sp. P14 was isolated from crude oil-contaminated sediments. This strain was capable of utilizing three to five rings polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) including phenanthrene (Phe), pyrene (Pyr), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) as a sole carbon and energy source. After cultivated with 50mg/L of each PAH, strain P14 removed 43% Phe, 34% Pyr and 30% BaP in 30 d. Four different hydroxyphenanthrene products derived from Phe by strain P14 (1,2,3,4-hydroxyphenanthrene) were detected using SPME-GC-MS. Strain P14 also was capable of degrading mineral oil with n-alkanes of C17 to C21 carbon chain length. Compared with glucose-grown cells, PAHs-grown cells had decreased contents of shorter-chain length fatty acids (≤ C16:0), increased contents of C18:0, Me-C19:0 and disappeared odd-number carbon chain fatty acids. The contents of unsaturated C19:1, Me-C19:0 increased and C18:0 decreased in mineral oil-grown cells. At the same time, the strain P14 tended to float when cultivated in mineral oil-supplemented liquid medium. The degradation capability of P14 to alkane and PAHs and its floating characteristics will be very helpful for future's application in oil-spill bioremediation.