BCC第二代气候预测模式系统对2015年一次寒潮过程的预报能力评估

利用BCC第二代气候预测模式系统(BCC_CSM2)的回报试验结果,评估了BCC_CSM2对2015年1月27—31日一次强寒潮过程的次季节预报能力,结果表明:(1)此次寒潮过程主要由新地岛以西的短波槽不断东移发展而形成的,模式能够提前10 d较好地预报过程期间降温以及高空环流形势,相关系数、距平符号一致率以及均方根误差都定量表明模式在10 d左右具有较好的预报能力,但是对降温程度的预报能力随起报时间的延长逐渐降低;(2)为了探讨随起报时间延长模式预报能力降低的原因,从位势倾向方程出发,分析相对涡度平流和温度平流随高度变化发现,在模式提前10 d之内的预报时段内,模式预报的相对涡度平流和温度平流随高度变化与再分析资料的诊断结果基本一致,能够合理预测短波槽的东移和槽脊的强度变化,当预报超过10 d后,模式中相对涡度平流的配置不利于短波槽的东移,模式预报的低层出现暖平流,并随高度增加而减小,不利于槽的加深,使模式预报的环流形势产生偏差,导致模式预报能力降低。     

Direct Observations of Atmospheric Transport and Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange from High-Precision Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide Profile Measurements

The balloon-borne Aircore campaign was conducted in Inner Mongolia,China,on June 13 and 14 2018,which detected carbon dioxide(CO_2) and carbon monoxide(CO) profiles from surface to 24 km,showing strong positive and negative correlations between 8 km and 10 km on 13 and 14 June,respectively.Backward trajectories,meteorological analyses,and CO_2 horizontal distributions were combined to interpret this phenomenon.The results indicated that the source region experienced a stratospheric intrusion and exhibited a large horizontal CO_2 gradient;namely,lower CO concentrations corresponded to higher CO_2 concentrations and vice versa.The laminar structure with multiple origins resulted in the highly negative correlation between CO_2 and CO in the upper troposphere on 14 June.The contribution of stratospheric air mass to the upper troposphere and that of tropospheric air mass to the lower stratosphere were 26.7% and24.3%,respectively,based on a mass balance approach.Another interesting phenomenon is that CO_2 and CO concentrations increased substantially at approximately 8 km on 13 June.An analysis based on the backward trajectory implied that the air mass possibly came from anthropogenic sources.The slope of CO_2/CO representing the anthropogenic sources was 87.3 ppm ppm~(-1).In addition,the CO_2 profile showed that there was a large CO_2 gradient of 4 ppm km-1 within the boundary layer on 13 June,and this gradient disappeared on 14 June.     

农田生态系统温室气体排放研究进展

自1985年起,中国科学院大气物理研究所利用自行设计制造的自动观测仪器系统,历时十六年先后对我国四大类主要水稻产区的甲烷排放规律及其与土壤、气象条件和农业管理措施的关系进行了系统野外观测实验,并对稻田甲烷产生、转化和输送机理进行了理论研究,探讨了控制稻田甲烷排放的实用措施,建立了估算和预测稻田甲烷排放的数值模型.在甲烷排放的时空变化规律和转化率研究方面有一系列新的发现,在稻田甲烷产生率、排放率及其与环境条件的关系方面取得一系列新的成果,以充分证据改变了国际上关于全球和中国稻田甲烷排放总量的估算.在对稻田甲     

0308号强热带风暴"天鹅"影响过程分析

利用天气图、卫星云图等资料,分析了0308号强热带风暴"天鹅"的高空环流形势及演变、双热带气旋的影响、日本24小时地面预报图和降水预报图以及FY-2云图,探讨了如何预报热带气旋的移动路径、登陆地点和时段,切实提高热带气旋活动的预报准确率.     

Köppen Climate Types in Observed and Simulated Climates

The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller.     

湖北省铜山口铜(钼)矿床成矿流体水岩反应数值模拟

湖北省铜山口铜(钼)矿床是一典型的夕卡岩 斑岩复合型矿床。通过对其流体包裹体的系统研究,确定了成矿流体的成分及温压条件;结合矿床学的研究,将成矿过程分解为两个平行的成矿阶段,即夕卡岩型矿化阶段和斑岩型矿化阶段。根据Johnson和Reed等人建立的水 岩反应模型,对该矿床的成矿流体与围岩的反应并析出金属沉淀的过程进行了数值模拟计算。结果表明:在斑岩型矿化阶段,成矿流体系统出现等焓减压沸腾过程并沉淀出大量的金属矿物,成矿流体分异为低盐度流体和高盐度流体;在夕卡岩型成矿阶段,沉淀出典型的夕卡岩矿物;在整个成矿过程中,成矿流体的pH值逐渐升高。模拟计算结果与实际地质现象非常吻合,说明所建立的水 岩反应模型可以为理解这一类复合型金属热液矿床的形成机制提供一个新的思路。     

Scale invariant theory for Bianchi Type VIII and IX space-times with perfect fluid

In this paper we have taken an attempt to study the feasibility of scale invariant theory (Wesson, 1981a,b) in Bianchi type VIII and IX space-times with a time dependent gauge function (Dirac Gauge i.e. βα )and a matter field in the form of a perfect fluid. It is found that Bianchi type VIII (δ=1) space-time is feasible in this theory whereas Bianchi type IX (δ=-1) space-time is not feasible. In this feasible case a radiating model is constructed and its physical behaviour is discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, CH<Subscript>4</Subscript> and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O from alpine grassland in the Tibetan Plateau

Using static chamber technique,fluxes of CO2,CH4 and N2O were measured in the alpine grassland area from July 2000 to July 2001,determinations of mean fluxes showed that CO2 and N2O were generally released from the soil,while the alpine grassland accounted for a weak CH4 sink.Fluxes of CO2,CH4 and N2O ranged widely.The highest CO2 emission occurred in August,whereas almost 90?of the whole year emission occurred in the growing season.But the variations of CH4 and N2O fluxes did not show any clear patterns over the one-year-experiment.During a daily variation,the maximum CO2 emission occurred at 16:00,and then decreased to the minimum emission in the early morning.Daily pattern analyses indicated that the variation in CO2 fluxes was positively related to air temperatures(R^2=0.73)and soil temperatures at a depth of 5 cm(R^2=0.86),whereas daily variations in CH4 and N2O fluxes were poorly explained by soil temperatures and climatic variables.CO2 emissions in this area were much lower than other grasslands in plain areas.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> processes in an alpine grassland ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau

In this paper, the CO2 concentrations profile from 1.5 m depth in soil to 32 m height in atmosphere were measured from July 2000 to July 2001 in an alpine grassland ecosystem located in the permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau, which revealed that CO2 concentrations varied greatly during this study period. Mean concentrations during the whole experiment in the atmosphere were absolutely lower than the CO2 concentrations in soil, which resulted in CO2 emissions from the alpine steppe soil to the atmosphere. The highest CO2 concentration was found at a depth of 1.5 m in soil while the lowest CO2 concentration occurred in the atmosphere. Mean CO2 concentrations in soil generally increased with depth. This was the compositive influence of the increasing soil moistures and decreasing soil pH, which induced the increasing biological activities with depth. Temporally, the CO2 concentrations at different layers in air remained a more steady state because of the atmospheric turbulent milking. During the seasonal variations, CO2 concentrations at surface soil interface showed symmetrical patterns, with the lowest accumulation of CO2 occurring in the late winter and the highest CO2 concentration in the growine seasons.