About the specification of erosion flux for soft stratified cohesive sediments

The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress _b and the erosive shear strength _s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify _b and _s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =_f exp {[T_b-T_s]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile _s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients _f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using GIS

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been formulated as a Multi-Criteria Decision Making problem. The Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process were adopted as evaluating techniques, in which experts’ judgments were analyzed for objectively estimating and weighting control factors. Seven triggering factors, depicted in the form of maps, were identified and ordered according to their priority. These factors are (1) wind energy; (2) surface sediment; (3) vegetation density; (4) land use; (5) drainage density; (6) topographic change and (7) vegetation type. The factor maps were digitized, converted to raster data and overlaid to determine their possible spatial relationships. Applying a susceptibility model, a map of sand encroachment susceptibility in Kuwait was developed. The map showed that the areas of very high and high sand encroachment susceptibility are located within the main corridor of sand pathway that coincides with the northwesterly dominant wind direction.     

龙永煤田危机矿山资源接替的几种勘探模式

通过龙永煤田现有煤矿状况调查分析发现：许多矿井已步入“花甲之年”，接近矿井服务年限。为了保障我省能源安全，应当采用有效勘探方法，方能使它们“返老还童”。研究发现危机矿山延长服务年限的几种勘探模式是：其一为扩大（延伸）勘探模式；其二为小型井田（块段）勘探模式；其三为资料分析研究模式。经探采对比发现，采用这三种勘探模式后，产生了巨大的经济效益，使一大批老矿井青春再度焕发。     

单一滑面边坡的非稳定蠕变模型分析

对单一滑面边坡的非稳定蠕变分析是边坡稳定性研究的基础。文中对岩质边坡单一滑面的流变变形机制进行了分析，提出了一种能较好反映这一变形机制的非稳定蠕变模型。特别是描述单一滑面边坡的非稳定蠕变破坏阶段，并对其稳定性进行了讨论。结合一些工程实例进行了对比验证，为滑坡灾害的预测和防治提供依据。     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

舞阳、襄城盐湖盆地未熟-低熟油成藏模式

舞阳、襄城凹陷下第三生活费为膏、盐岩相盐湖沉积。半咸水-咸水湖相、盐湖相是形成未熟-低熟油的良好环境，沉积旋回中期断坳式沉积形成了主要油源层系，其高丰度未熟烃类推岩体是形成未熟-低熟油藏的物质基础，中-高孔、中-高渗碎屑岩层构成了未熟-低熟油藏的重要储集层，并发育了较好的生储盖组合，这些有利条件为舞阳、襄城凹陷形成未熟-低熟油藏提供了重要保证。指出凹陷陡坡带为背斜、断鼻型油藏分布区，还可能有混合型油藏；中部洼陷带为岩性油藏、裂隙型油藏发育区；斜坡带主要发育断鼻型油藏。     

A non-linear stress-stiffness model for geomaterials at small to intermediate strains

A double exponential fitting model (DEFM) capable of expressing the non-linear stress-stiffness relationship of geomaterials has been proposed by Shibuya et al. (1997). The model comprises two material constants; the elastic stiffness at very small strains and the strength, together with other free parameters to determine the complete stress-stiffness relationship. In this paper, the capability of the original function used for DEFM in simulating the tangent stiffness-stress relationship of geomaterials is first discussed. Second, the methods for determining the free model parameters, as well as its conversion to obtain a stress-strain relationship are proposed. The applicability of DEFM to predicting non-linear stress-stiffness relationship is examined in detail in a total of forty-nine fitting cases of compression test data on sedimentary rock, artificial soft rock and soft clay. It is found that the DEFM is effective in expressing the non-linear stress-stiffness relationship of various kinds of geomaterials at small to intermediate strains, say less than 0.5%. The superiority of this model compared to other fitting models currently in use is also demonstrated in some of the fitting cases.     

钢筋砼摩擦耗能支撑框架结构的单元刚度和力学模型分析

为研究钢筋砼摩擦耗能支撑框架结构的动力反应性能 ,对其中的摩擦耗能器单元和框架杆单元的单元刚度和力学模型做了分析。钢筋砼摩擦耗能支撑单元由支撑杆单元和钢板—橡胶摩擦耗能器单元组成 ,支撑单元可取空间杆单元 ,摩擦耗能器单元为平面应力矩形单元。摩擦耗能器单元的剪切恢复力曲线为理想的弹塑性曲线 ,根据耗能器单元的力学模型 ,可确定其在每一时刻的刚度 ;框架结构空间杆单元的恢复力模型采用双线型模型 ,根据杆单元的力学模型 ,可确定其在每一时刻的刚度。并利用所编制的程序对十层单榀两跨空间普通框架和摩擦耗能支撑框架在地震作用下进行了弹塑性反应时程分析 ,结果表明耗能支撑框架的顶层最大位移明显小于普通框架     

分布式侵蚀预报模型中网格面积的选定——以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例

在分布式土壤侵蚀过程模型中 ,承载数据以及进行运算的最小单元 ,即基本地块的选取是非常关键的 ,它直接关系到模型的模拟精度和运算数据量。目前大多数分布式模型都采用平均布设矩形网格的方法 ,这种方法在基本网格的大小选取上存在着盲目性和不统一性。本文以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例 ,利用GIS和SPSS分析了黄土高原丘陵沟壑区属性均一的基本地块在面积上的统计规律 ,给出了基本地块选取的合理依据 ,以促进建立更好的分布式模型