Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).     

基于抗震性态的设防标准研究

以基于性态的抗震设计为出发点,并以我国为例,针对目前国内外抗震设防标准的若干问题和不足,提出了基于性态抗震设计的三环节抗震设防方法．将现有的设防内容改为确定结构的抗震设计类别、确定设计烈度或设计地震动参数、确定建筑的重要性等级３个方面,并分别在每一方面进行具体深入的研究,从而形成了一套完整的基于性态的抗震设防标准确定的原则、方法和框架,可以直接用来编制规范供抗震设计使用．      

GIS公路地质环境评价研究

地质环境评价是公路环境评价中一项重要的内容,但公路地质环境定量化的影响评价至今报道甚少。该文根据高速公路通过区地质环境特点,提出了一套用于地质环境评价的指标体系,叙述了公路地质环境评价的基本技术流程,以地质环境评价空间图形信息和属性信息为基础建立系统数据库,利用GIS系统的空间分析能力,评价道路地质环境影响的研究思路。     

修正的莫尔-库仑理论的解析和验证

根据主应力可分解为静水应力和偏应力,以及它们在应力莫尔圆和变形方面的相关性,推导出修正的莫尔-库仑理论的数学表达式。从理论上解决了库仑理论和莫尔理论存在的许多缺陷,特别是中间主应力对材料抗剪强度的影响。它的四参数准则的计算结果与一些混凝土的试验数据相当吻合。     

煤炭资源勘查规范的进步与发展——新型煤炭资源地质勘查法规体系的构建思维

在贯彻执行我国现行有关煤炭资源勘查规范及相关规定的基础上，对国际国内煤炭地质勘查阶段划分进行了对比，论述了建国以来中国煤炭地质勘查规范的主要技术内涵，对加强贯彻新规范，促进标准化体系建设和适应社会主义市场经济体制改革进行了探讨。     

三峡引水工程秦巴段输水隧洞稳定性分析

三峡引水工程秦巴段隧洞总长占线路总长的80%。为了分析隧洞施工及运营中可能发生的工程地质问题,在地质调查、地应力测量和岩石力学参数测试的基础上,利用Ansys有限元软件对引水工程北部不同深度、不同截面形态的隧洞围岩的应力重分布情况进行了模拟计算,得到了圆形隧洞、城门形隧洞和马蹄形隧洞围岩的应力分布结果。利用Hoek-Brown强度准则,得到了隧洞围岩的强度/应力比值,进而对不同深度、不同截面形态的隧洞围岩的稳定性进行了分析。初步认为:隧洞埋深小于1000m时,应优先考虑圆形隧洞和马蹄形隧洞;埋深大于1000m时,应优先考虑城门形隧洞。这项研究成果为引水工程深埋隧洞的设计提供了参考依据。     

Experimental research on mechanical characteristics and strength criterion of rock of triaxial unloading tests under different stress pathsEI北大核心CSCD

By carrying out triaxial unloading test under different stress paths on rock, the complete stress-strain curves, deformation characteristics and its strength criterion are studied. The test results show that the relation between lateral strain and confining pressure firstly is linear, and then is nonlinear in the total stage of unloading confining pressure. And its growth rate is about 3 to 5 times the growth rate of the axial strain. It shows obvious lateral dilatancy, and the degree of dilatancy is related to the unloading path. According to the area that is enclosed by confining pressure and volumetric strain curve, it can be seen that the greater the confining pressure is before unloading, the more the energy releases. Deformation modulus decreases gradually with the unloading confining pressure, and increases with the initial confining pressure; the relation between deformation modulus and confining pressure shows negative exponential distribution overall. At the same unloading paths, the reduction of the deformation modulus increases with the increase of initial confining pressure. The Poisson's ratio rises up continually, and the variation law with the confining pressure can be well described by nonlinear. Failure characteristics of rock are mainly shear failure. The strength characteristics of rock can be well characterized by using the Mohr strength criterion of power function. These conclusions provide reliable theoretical reference and guiding significance for the deep mining of the underground metal mine.     

目标样本粒度判据在海湾环境演变研究中的运用——以福建前湖湾为例

高密度采集福建前湖湾海岸剖面133个泥沙样品做粒度分析,其频率曲线显示多种粒度分布特征,预示多种沉积环境的变化。采集研究剖面周边海滩、河口浅滩、河口、滨海沼泽和海岸沙丘等已知环境的样品作为目标样本。将目标样本沉积参数平均粒径(Mz)、标准偏差(σ)、峰态(Kg)设为判别参数,利用Excel计算海岸剖面样品与目标样本参数的距离,筛选最小距离样品,归为已知目标样本的同类。据此,分析了海岸剖面蕴含的6个沉积环境变化阶段。利用剖面底部淤泥测年14C=(328 15±170)a BP,和剖面上部泥炭测年14C=(24 130±100)a BP,了解这一变化发生的年代。自(32 815±170)a BP以来,前湖湾经历了河口浅滩-河口、沙丘-河口-滨海沼泽-海滩-沙丘等海岸环境演变过程。     

非线性Hoek-Brown强度折减技术

为精确执行非线性Hoek-Brown(HB)强度折减,首先在p-q空间分析了HB曲线任意点切线与Mohr-Coulomb(MC)准则的对应关系,推求了HB屈服函数材料折减系数和强度折减系数的关系,提出了潜入强度折减系数的HB弹塑性分析模型,介绍了在Flac3D平台上二次开发实现非线性HB强度折减的基本思路。对一边坡算例用本文方法和简化Bishop法进行了对比分析,计算结果表明,潜入强度折减系数的HB弹塑性模型计算获得的边坡潜在滑动面形态、位置和相应的安全系数,与简化Bishop法计算结果很接近。     

Warmer-Get-Wetter or Wet-Get-Wetter? A Criterion to Classify Oceanic Precipitation

In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of observed global oceanic precipitation during 1979–2010 are investigated. It is found that the global trend in precipitation during this period varies at a rate of 1.5%/K of surface warming while the rate is 6.6%/K during 2006–2010. The precipitation is highly correlated with Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in both the temporal and the spatial patterns since the strong 1997–98 El Nino event. Considering the distributions of precipitation and SST, seven oceanic regions are classified and presented using the observed Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) data and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures, version 3(ERSST.v3) data. Further examining the mechanisms of the classified oceanic precipitation regions is conducted using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite, GFDL-ESM-2G model precipitation and SST data and Hadley Center sea ice and SST version 1(Had ISST1) data. More than 85% of global oceanic precipitations are controlled by either one or both of the warmer-get-wetter mechanism and wet-get-wetter mechanism. It is estimated that a 0.5 SST signal-to-noise ratio, representing the trend of SST time series to the standard deviation, is a criterion to distinguish the mechanism of a region. When the SST ratio is larger than 0.5, the precipitation of this region is controlled by the warmer-get-wetter mechanism. SST, rather than the humidity, is the pivotal factor. On the other hand, when the SST ratio is less than 0.5, the precipitation is controlled by the wet-get-wetter mechanism. The SST variability is a significant factor contributing to the precipitation variation.