气象中使用统计检验的几个问题

针对目前在气象和气候要素变化分析中,对相关系数和合成分析使用统计检验存在的若干问题进行评论。认为对相关系数等统计检验,不应该称为“信度检验”,其检验水平也不应该称为“95％置信度”,而应该称为“显性检验”,“显性水平为5％”。     

1991～2013年发生在西沙永兴岛的台风风暴潮统计特征分析

利用1991～2013年西沙海洋站实测的潮位、气压、风资料,统计分析发生在西沙永兴岛的台风风暴潮特征.统计结果为以后的台风风暴潮增水预报工作提供一定借鉴.统计分析发现：发生在永兴岛的台风风暴潮过程年最大增水值基本在34cm处上下波动,最高预警级别仅为蓝色;最大增水有明显的年际变化特征,预计接下来10a左右发生在永兴岛的台风风暴增水值大体逐年递减;最大增水若与极大天文潮相叠加,在永兴岛可能出现灾害性高潮位;年最大增水有明显的季节特征,在夏季最强,其次为秋季,冬季和春季最弱;台风中心经过时由负压引起的增水较为明显,单峰型、双峰型和振荡型的增水曲线形态均有出现;影响西沙永兴岛的热带气旋的年最大风速年际与季节性变化是导致永兴岛台风风暴潮特征的主要成因之一.     

Geophysical investigation using resistivity and GPR methods: a case study of a lubricant oil waste disposal area in the city of Ribeirão Preto,São Paulo,Brazil

Geophysics has been shown to be effective in identifying areas contaminated by waste disposal, contributing to the greater efficiency of soundings programs and the installation of monitoring wells. In the study area, four trenches were constructed with a total volume of about 25,000 m³. They were almost totally filled with re-refined lubricating oil waste for approximately 25 years. No protection liners were used in the bottoms and laterals of the disposal trenches. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the potential of the resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods in characterizing the contamination of this lubricant oil waste disposal area in Ribeirão Preto, SP, situated on the geological domain of the basalt spills of the Serra Geral Formation and the sandstones of the Botucatu Formation. Geophysical results were shown in 2D profiles. The geophysical methods used enabled the identification of geophysical anomalies, which characterized the contamination produced by the trenches filled with lubricant oil waste. Conductive anomalies (smaller than 185 Ωm) immediately below the trenches suggest the action of bacteria in the hydrocarbons, as has been observed in several sites contaminated by hydrocarbons in previously reported cases in the literature. It was also possible to define the geometry of the trenches, as evidenced by the GPR method. Direct sampling (chemical analysis of the soil and the water in the monitoring well) confirmed the contamination. In the soil analysis, low concentrations of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were found, mainly naphthalene and phenanthrene. In the water samples, an analysis verified contamination of the groundwater by lead (Pb). The geophysical methods used in the investigation provided an excellent tool for environmental characterization in this study of a lubricant oil waste disposal area, and could be applied in the study of similar areas.     

沪宁高速公路一次冬季浓雾过程的数值模拟分析

利用由多个美国研究部门及大学的共同参与研发的新一代中尺度预报模式和同化系统——WRF（Weather Research Forecast）模式,对2006年12月24—27日沪宁高速公路及其周边地区出现的一次罕见的持续性大雾过程进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,此次大雾过程属于较典型的平流雾,其生成和维持的主要原因是大气层结稳定、系统的下沉运动、充足的水汽;同时也有辐射作用,地面的大气长波辐射冷却是雾维持的重要因素。大范围下沉运动使中低层大气增温与地面辐射降温配合,形成深厚的逆温层,对大雾长时间维持起决定性作用。所以这是一次以平流雾为主伴随辐射雾的过程。27日14时后干冷空气南下才使大雾消散。      

上海短历时强降水的雷达和闪电活动特征

用雷达反射率及其导出产品(分层垂直液态水含量(VIL)、分层平均反射率等)与闪电和大气温度层结资料,通过对降水系统时间演变、反射率垂直结构和闪电活动的分析,将上海2010年6—11月的短时强降水(1 h雨量≥20 mm)分为层状暖云型、对流暖云主导型和对流冷云主导型。(1) 与雨强密切相关的关键因子是:低层(0 ℃层以下、高度在0～1 km、0～2 km、0～3 km和0～4 km)的VIL、低层(高度在1～2 km、2～3 km和3～4 km)的平均反射率和整层最大反射率;(2) 不同类型强降水中,高层(高度在0 ℃、-10 ℃和-20 ℃层以上)的VIL、整层VIL、高层(高度在5～6 km、6～7 km和7～8 km)的平均反射率、总地闪和负地闪频次这5个因子对雨强的作用各有不同;(3) 对应不同降水类型的平均反射率垂直廓线具有不同的垂直结构和发展演变特征;(4) 在三类强降水中,对流冷云主导型的雨强与总地闪和正地闪的相关性最好。      

Relationship between flow speed variability of three tidewater glaciers and surface melt intensity in Greenland between 1979 and 2006

The margin of the Greenland ice sheet has undergone rapid changes over the past decade as a result of the thinning, acceleration, and retreat of many fast-flowing tidewater outlet glaciers. Satellite observations show that three major tidewater outlet glaciers in Greenland retreated between 2000 and 2005, with synchronous increases in flow speed, causing a deficit in ice sheet mass budget and the potential for sea level rise. In this study, we investigated whether this acceleration was related to surface melt processes, and found that both flow speed and positive degree day (PDD) anomalies of the three glaciers varied together, indicating a causal relationship. Jakobshavn Isbræ had lower flow speeds before 2000, during which PDD anomalies were negative, except for modest warming in 1993 and 1995. From 1999–2000, during which it is thought a threshold was passed, the flow speed of the glacier started to increase. However, the two glaciers in east Greenland showed a delayed response. Abrupt warming occurred in the vicinity of the two glaciers around 2001, but flow speed did not increase until 2003 for the Helheim Glacier, and until 2004 for the Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. Furthermore, the two eastern glaciers switched to a deceleration mode more quickly than Jakobshavn Isbræ. The observed differences in both acceleration and deceleration among the glaciers suggest that the relationship between surface melt and outlet glacier dynamics is not simple but complex.     

民航飞机气象资料的应用及探讨

为了将AMDAR资料应用于常规观测预报中,对天气系统的演变特征进行更细微的监测,利用2011年5月1~3日的AMDAR资料,分析AMDAR时空分布特点;对比气象常规高空观测实际,研究AMDAR资料处理技术,得出具体算法,并结合2011年5月1~3日常规高空观测资料分析天气形势,看出常规高空观测中显示的1日20时移出盆地的高原东部至盆地上空的浅槽于1日14时就已经移出盆地了,延安伸出的槽在14时也已出现。研究结果表明,高空气压的计算可直接用等温大气中的压高方程代替;AMDAR资料应用于常规高空观测可以得到比常规高空观测更为细致的结果。     

GPS气象预报的可行性分析

基于中国区域5个IGS跟踪站的实测GPS数据,利用Bernese 4.2软件反演了部分典型测站上空的可降水量,并分析了该降水量变化与降雨之间的关系,探讨了将GPS应用于气象预报的可行性.     

天顶对流层延迟计算方法研究

依据精密单点定位（PPP）原理编写天顶对流层延迟估计程序,分别利用所编程序和GAMIT软件进行实测数据解算,将所得数据与IGS网站提供数据进行对比分析,结果显示PPP与双差法估计对流层延迟都有较高精度;但在双差法解算过程中发现,无远距离测站参与解算会影响对流层延迟估计的精度。