An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.     

气象遥感资料变分校准方案改进及应用试验

针对常见气象遥感资料变分校准方案的不足，提出了一个改进方案。该方案不需要将校准参照量插值到遥测资料的格点上，既避免了对稀疏的校正参照量进行客观分析的困难，也避免了校正参照量稀缺区域不准确插值分析带来的不利影响，使遥感资料的整体偏差得到修订的同时，能够更好地保持遥测资料的空间分布形态不变。利用国家卫星气象中心通过9210下发的ATOVS反演产品进行了试验，结果表明改进方案校准效果好；并将校准后的ATOVS反演资料用于Grapes三维变分同化系统，应用试验表明校准后的ATOVS反演资料在三维变分同化系统中具有应用价值。     

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.     

Evaluation of the Urban Tile in MOSES using Surface Energy Balance Observations

The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model.     

北京市大兴区地下水资源开采潜力分析

本文根据不同含水岩组的水量、水质和水温特征,分析了大兴区地下水资源的开采潜力,提出了地下水开发利用建议,为大兴区城市规划、城市供水方案提供依据。     

水库渗流影响文物遗址安全发掘研究——以湖南里耶秦代古城遗址为例

与古遗址相邻的江、河由于后期的工程活动,如水库、大坝的修建和蓄水,水位上升,将对遗址区地下水的运动规律及渗流场产生较大影响。在其影响下,古遗址可能产生各种环境地质灾害并对其发掘安全产生不利影响。论文以国家重点文物——湖南里耶秦代古城遗址安全发掘深度研究为例,在分析水库蓄水诱发的环境地质灾害的基础上,对遗址在不同库水位下的安全发掘深度及发掘方案进行了研究,提出了保障发掘安全的工程措施。研究成果为国家重点文物的保护和进一步发掘提供了科学依据。对类似文物工程的保护和发掘具有借鉴意义。     

中国太古宙

根据最近10多年来中国太古宙岩石同位素地质年代学新数据和中国太古宙岩石三个主要分布地区冀东、辽东和吉林南部、太行山-五台山的时间-地层图及其对比情况,认为尚无足够的证据支持中国太古宙四分,三分方案更适合于中国太古宙的情况：约2．9Ga可以作为晚、中太古代的界线,而3.5Ga作为中、早太古代界线尚不很明晰。     

The numerical simulation on the PBL structure and its evolution over small-scale concave terrain

A high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional diagnostic PBL model over small-scale concave terrain was established in this paper. A two-dimensional prognostic model was developed based on the diagnostic model. The hydrostatic approximation was abandoned and the simple energy (E-ε) closure scheme was used in both mod-els. Using the two models, characteristics of PBL structure and its evolution were fully studied. The main characteris-tic of the PBL is the circulation, and it fairly affects the distribution of the pollutant in the pit.     

大气动力学方程组的定性理论及其应用

基于完整的湿大气动力学方程组,利用无穷维动力系统的新理论和新方法,系统讨论了强迫耗散的非线性大气系统的定性理论及其应用。将完整的强迫耗散非线性湿大气动力学方程组化为Hilbert空间中一个等价的算子方程,研究了算子的性质及其物理意义,在此基础上得到湿大气系统全局吸引子的存在性定理,揭示出系统向外源的非线性适应特征,并把结果推广到有地形动力作用和非定常外源强迫的情形。同时探讨了大气方程组惯性流形的存在,大气多平衡态产生的根源以及强迫、耗散和非线性对系统解的渐近行为的影响。在理论结果的基础上,提出强迫耗散的非线性动力系统中存在三类时间边界层、方程组简化准则、分解算法的算子约束原则以及支撑吸引子基底的少数自由度的构造方法,探讨了理论在非线性发展方程差分格式的设计和计算稳定性分析、多平衡态的数值分析、数值模式延伸预报的改进、短期气候预测以及一类中尺度系统分析与预测中的应用,指出描述长期过程动力学模式的必备条件,给出初值与模式相协调的合理解释。最后,对今后的研究方向作了展望。     

沿海GNSS观测网中BERNESE软件处理方案比较

采用BERNESE软件"OBS-MAX"和"SHORTEST"两种独立基线生成方式和三种网平差基准定义方法制定出6种GNSS数据后处理方案,分别对中国沿海GNSS业务化观测网2009年与2011年的两批数据处理,并从外符合和内符合精度两个方面进行分析比较。结果表明:采用"OBS-MAX"独立基线生成方式得出的坐标精度更优,尤其是在原始观测数据质量不高的情况下;在网平差基准定义上,采用固定解得出的坐标内符合精度优于最小约束解,但其外符合精度较差。