Uncertainty Reduction of Estimated Geostrophic Volume Transports with Altimeter Observations East of Taiwan

The common geostrophic estimation of ocean current velocity uses only water temperature and conductivity profiles. The geostrophic volume transport of a western boundary current, like the Taiwan Current (Kuroshio east of Taiwan), between the coast and its eastern boundary can be easily estimated based on hydrographic survey data. But the eastern boundary of the Taiwan Current is very uncertain due to extremely variable hydrographic conditions. This uncertainty is strongly correlated with the propagating mesoscale eddies originating from the interior of the western North Pacific Ocean. The uncertainty of estimated transport can be greatly reduced if eddy distribution is considered when determining the integration boundaries with the assistance of satellite altimeter measurements. Eight hydrographic surveys east of Taiwan between November 1992 and June 1996 are demonstrated in this study. The average geostrophic transport of the Taiwan Current with a reference set to 1000 dbar at 22°N between the east coast of Taiwan and 124°E is 22.9 ±14.2 Sv and changes to 22.1 ± 8.3 Sv, the uncertainty of which is nearly halved after taking account of the eddy distribution. The estimation uncertainty is insensitive to vertical displacements of the reference level within the depth range between 800 and 2000 dbar. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中美地理学近百年发展脉络的比较研究——基于《地理学报》和Annals of the Association of American

基于《地理学报》和Annals of the Association of American Geographers学术论文的统计,对比近百年中美两国地理学的发展脉络,着重从总体特征、重点研究内容及其变化、理论—实践关系三方面对比异同,获得经验和借鉴。美国地理学经过初期发展、高速发展后,目前进入持续发展阶段;中国地理学在曲折中崛起,目前正处在高速发展时期。美国地理学中人文地理学一直居主导地位,中国则从重视自然地理开始逐渐向自然、人文、方法三足鼎立方向迈进;美国地理学家非常重视微观、中观实践,但在国家宏观决策中远没有中国地理学家发挥作用更直接。美国地理学研究水平高于中国,但这种差距正在缩小,研究方向的变化相差3~5年。世界地理研究中心有向亚太地区、向中国转移的可能,中国地理学家要勇于创建具有中国特色的地理学派。     

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Method for Determining Fluid Compositions in the H20-NaCl-CaCl2 System with Cryogenic Raman Spectroscopy

Raman peaks of various hydrates in the H20-NaCl-CaCl2 system have been previously identified, but a quantitative relationship between the Raman peaks and XNaCl （i.e.,NaCl/ （NaCl＋CaCl2）） has not been established, mainly due to the difficulty to freeze the solutions. This problem was solved by adding alumina powder to the solutions to facilitate nucleation of crystals. Cryogenic （-185℃） Raman spectroscopic studies of alumina-spiced solutions indicate that XNaCl is linearly correlated with the total peak area fraction of hydrohalite. Capsules of solutions made from silica capillary were prepared to simulate fluid inclusions. Most of these artificial fluid inclusions could not be totally frozen even at temperatures as low as -185℃, and the total peak area fraction of hydrohalite is not correlated linearly with XNaCI. However, the degree of deviation （△XNaCl） from the linear correlation established earlier is related to the amount of residual solution, which is reflected by the ratio （r） of the baseline ＂bump＂ area, resulting from the interstitial unfrozen brine near 3435 cm^-1, and the total hydrate peak area between 3350 and 3600 cm^-1. A linear correlation between △XNaCl and r is established to estimate XNaCl from cryogenic Raman spectroscopic analysis for fluid inclusions.     

中国最早的观象台发掘

在山西襄汾县陶寺镇附近发掘出距今约4000年的最早观象台兼祭祀台遗址,它是由观测点、夯土柱和柱间狭缝组成,用于观测日出方位变化,确定回归年长度来制订历法。模拟观测结果表明,位于东南和东北的二狭缝可准确测定冬至和夏至日期,而此二狭缝之间有10个土柱,应象征着视太阳向北和向南每位移一个土柱为一个节气。由此推之,帝尧时的历法特征是将一岁分成20个节气的阳历,上古时的阴阳五行历即十月太阳历是源于它奠定的基础。     

RD20Ⅱ型钻机及空气潜孔锤钻进施工中若干问题探讨

采用RD20Ⅱ型钻机及空气潜孔锤钻进工艺,有效地解决了大口径煤层气孔、矿井通风孔、电缆孔及水源井等钻探施工中硬岩钻进效率低,干旱缺水地区钻探成本高,地层遇水易坍塌、缩径等问题。在介绍了RD20Ⅱ型钻机和QL系列潜孔锤结构特点的基础上,总结了在空气潜孔锤钻进中的一些问题及解决思路和措施。     

河外天体喷流的观测研究——Ⅱ.在R和I波段观测到的三个河外天体延伸物的特性

运用与本系列第一篇文章相同的设备与方法对PKS0349—27、3C98与PKS0634—20于1988年1月23—25日进行了观测。结果发现:PKS0349—27星系外缘突出物全部显现有向顺时针方向倾斜的趋势。3C98的延伸物主要向东北方向延伸。PKS0634—20的延伸物沿南北方向伸出,主要向北。     

Validation of turbulence closure parameterisations for stably stratified flows using the PROVESS turbulence measurements in the North Sea

A number of parameterisations for the simulation of mixing processes in the thermocline are compared and tested against the microstructure data of the PROVESS campaigns, conducted in the northern part of the North Sea during the autumn of 1998. The transport term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation is parameterised via the introduction of a third stability function S_k for turbulent energy diffusion. The formulations are compared with a simpler scheme based upon limiting conditions for turbulence variables. Improved results are obtained with a new form of S_k. The best agreement is, however, found with the simpler limiting scheme. This is explained in terms of a turbulence length scale theory for stably stratified turbulence. In agreement with previous laboratory and ocean data it is found that the ratios of the Thorpe and Kolmogorov scales to the Ozmidov length scale approach critical limiting values in the thermocline. The first of these conditions is satisfied when limiting conditions are implemented into the scheme, providing the necessary minimum value for the dissipation rate, whereas the schemes without limiting conditions fail to produce this critical ratio. The basic reason for this failure is that the Thorpe scale is overestimated, which is shown to be connected to an even larger overprediction of the dissipation rate of temperature variance. To investigate the impact of non-resolved advective processes and salinity stratification on the turbulence predictions, additional numerical experiments were conducted using a simple scheme for data assimilation. The best agreement is found again with the limiting scheme, which is able to make reasonable predictions for the dissipation rate without knowing the detailed shape of the mean stratification profile. It is shown that advective transport due to tidally and wind-driven motions has a non-negligible impact on vertical mixing. This is seen in the data and the models by periodic enhancements of turbulent mixing inside the thermocline.     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的20世纪气温变化

分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的快速耦合气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近100年气温变化的模拟,讨论了20世纪气温变化的机理。结果表明,在自然因素和人为因素的共同强迫作用下,FGOALS_gl能够合理再现20世纪全球平均和纬向平均地表气温随时间的演变。利用太阳辐照度等自然强迫、温室气体和气溶胶等人为强迫因子来驱动耦合模式,能够模拟出过去100年全球平均气温的增温趋势和年代际变化。耦合模式可以较好地模拟出20世纪全球气温变化趋势的空间分布。对区域气温变化模拟效果的分析表明,除北大西洋外,FGOALS_gl对其他地区具有较高的模拟技巧,表明外强迫是造成多数地区气温变化的主要原因。FGOALS_gl的主要缺陷在于模拟的变暖强度偏弱,大气模式自身的偏差以及耦合模式对温室气体响应的敏感度偏低是造成上述缺陷的主要原因。总体而言,FGOALS_gl对20世纪气温变化的模拟效果较为理想,特别是在全球、半球和大陆尺度上,该模式对过去100年气温变化的模拟较为合理。     

基于20—30d振荡的长江下游地区夏季低频降水延伸期预报方法研究

用长江下游降水低频分量和环流低频主成分,构造多变量时滞回归模型(MLR)和主成分复数自回归模型(PC-CAR)的混合预报模型(MLR/PC-CAR),对长江下游降水低频分量进行延伸期逐日变化预报,延长预报时效。通过2011年6—8月预测试验表明,20—30 d时间尺度的长江下游低频降水预测时效可达50 d左右,采用南半球中高纬度地区850 hPa低频经向风的主成分作为预测因子的模型的预测精度明显高于东亚地区低频经向风作为预测因子的模型。这表明在20—30 d时间尺度上,长江下游降水与南半球中纬度绕球遥相关(SCGT)型有关的主分量的时滞相关更加密切。进一步对于较强20—30 d振荡的多年资料构建的MLR/PC-CAR混合模型预测试验表明,SCGT是预测夏季长江下游低频降水未来50 d变化的显著信号。基于SCGT的发展和演变,对于把握类似长江下游地区2011年6月初旱涝急转和7月中旬持续降水和强降水过程异常变化过程很有帮助,SCGT可以作为夏季长江下游20—30 d低频降水和强降水过程进行延伸期预报的主要可预报性来源之一。