Uncertainty Reduction of Estimated Geostrophic Volume Transports with Altimeter Observations East of Taiwan

The common geostrophic estimation of ocean current velocity uses only water temperature and conductivity profiles. The geostrophic volume transport of a western boundary current, like the Taiwan Current (Kuroshio east of Taiwan), between the coast and its eastern boundary can be easily estimated based on hydrographic survey data. But the eastern boundary of the Taiwan Current is very uncertain due to extremely variable hydrographic conditions. This uncertainty is strongly correlated with the propagating mesoscale eddies originating from the interior of the western North Pacific Ocean. The uncertainty of estimated transport can be greatly reduced if eddy distribution is considered when determining the integration boundaries with the assistance of satellite altimeter measurements. Eight hydrographic surveys east of Taiwan between November 1992 and June 1996 are demonstrated in this study. The average geostrophic transport of the Taiwan Current with a reference set to 1000 dbar at 22°N between the east coast of Taiwan and 124°E is 22.9 ±14.2 Sv and changes to 22.1 ± 8.3 Sv, the uncertainty of which is nearly halved after taking account of the eddy distribution. The estimation uncertainty is insensitive to vertical displacements of the reference level within the depth range between 800 and 2000 dbar. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于地震沉积学方法的湖相浊积砂体识别——以东营凹陷牛20区块沙三中亚段为例

湖相浊积岩体积小、粒度细、单层厚度薄、相变快,受上覆三角洲前缘厚层砂体的屏蔽作用、沉积规律以及现有地震资料分辨率的影响,湖相浊积砂体的地震预测技术一直难有突破。以东营凹陷牛20区块为例,利用地震沉积学方法和技术,将沉积模式与地震反射特征、时频分析技术相结合,以井点为约束,通过识别前积界面,建立了等时层序地层格架;提高地震资料的分辨率和实现地震相位具有岩性地层意义是识别和预测湖相浊积砂体的关键。在等时界面控制下,通过正演模拟方法,认为混合相位子波拓频技术和分频技术相结合可以有效提高地震资料的主频与分辨率,采用90°相位转换可以将反射波瓣提到地层的中心,实现地震相位的岩性地层意义,最终将地层切片与地震属性相结合实现了浊积砂体的有效识别和预测。     

Changes of Air–sea Coupling in the North Atlantic over the 20th Century

Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe(NAH) SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback.     

2万年来南亚季风演化历史

文章综合中国西南部位于不同纬度、不同海拔,代表不同地貌、气候和植被单元的星云湖、腾冲青海湖、泸沽湖和伍须海这4个湖泊2万年以来的孢粉、硅藻记录,揭示了中国西南部2万年来的气候变化与南亚季风演化历史。结果表明,在中国西南地区,冰盛期后首次开始升温的时间发生在19.0~18.0 ka（1 ka=1000 cal.a B.P.）之间。自冰消期首次开始升温以后,中国西南地区气候具有区域差异,即在中国西南部偏西偏南、受较单一南亚季风影响的区域,冰后期都存在H1冷事件、B/A暖期和YD冷事件,并于11.5 ka左右进入全新世,开始是缓慢增温增湿,随后在10.0 ka左右进入明显变暖湿的时期;全新世适宜期都出现在中全新世,然后进入晚全新世降温期,并逐步开始受到人类活动的影响。在中国西南部偏东、偏北的区域,还兼受东亚季风影响,导致气候效应更加复杂。中国西南地区2万年来的气候变化揭示南亚季风从19.0 ka左右开始逐渐增强,在季风逐渐增强的过程中,出现两次明显的季风减弱期,分别对应H1和YD时期;在11.5 ka左右,南亚季风进一步增强,并在中全新世达到最强,随后又逐渐减弱。对其机制探讨认为,冰盛期后首次升温及此后逐渐增温的趋势主要受夏季太阳辐射的控制,同时,温室气体浓度的变化也起了重要的调制作用。而增温过程中存在的H1和YD突然变冷事件与大西洋温盐环流减弱有关;南亚季风区的全新世适宜期发生在中全新世可能是受海平面上升、海表温度、冰量范围、9月太阳辐射量等多种因素的共同影响。

     

江苏省梅雨的长期预报和成因分析

本文提出了江苏省中南部两区梅雨量的一种季度预报方法,发现应用２０年左右前期气候要素场找因子组建的预报方程对随后两年两区梅雨量有明显预报能力。分析表明每隔２－３年,预报因子即有相当的变化,显示出前期气候系统与地区梅雨量的隔季联系有不断调整的现象,但仍然存在一些稳定出现的前期因子群,例如前期当地区域的降水量可能通过调节深层土壤水份仍会隔季影响当地的梅雨量。     

Ab initio investigations of the charge transport properties of endohedral M@C20 (M= Na and K) metallofullerenes

Using density functional theory and quantum transport calculations based on nonequilibum Green's function formalism, we investigate the charge transport properties of endohedral M@C₂₀ (M= Na and K) metallofullerenes. Our results show that the conductance of C₂₀ fullerene can be obviously improved by insertion of alkali atom at its centre. Both linear and nonlinear sections are found on the I-V curves of the Au-M@C₂₀-Au two-probe systems. The novel negative differential resistance behaviour is also observed in Na@C₂₀ molecule but not in K@C₂₀.     

20世纪以来美国树木生长响应气候变化敏感度的时空差异

树木生长响应气候变化的敏感度是全球变化研究的重要内容。利用20世纪以来美国本土1058个样本点的树轮宽度指数和温度、降水数据,通过相关分析,揭示了树木生长速率年际变化响应气候变化敏感度的时空差异。研究发现：① 美国树木径向生长速率与温度普遍负相关、与降水普遍正相关,绝大多数地区树木生长受水分条件限制。② 径向生长速率对温度和降水响应敏感度呈现一定的季节差异,最敏感的季节因地区而异,这主要与不同月份温度、降水条件差异导致的水分条件变化有关。同时,径向生长速率对温度、降水响应敏感度还随着气候条件变化而变化,随着年平均温度升高（降低）,径向生长速率与温度的负相关逐渐增强（减弱）,随着年降水增加（减少）,与降水的正相关强度逐渐减弱（增强）。     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的20世纪气温变化

分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的快速耦合气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近100年气温变化的模拟,讨论了20世纪气温变化的机理。结果表明,在自然因素和人为因素的共同强迫作用下,FGOALS_gl能够合理再现20世纪全球平均和纬向平均地表气温随时间的演变。利用太阳辐照度等自然强迫、温室气体和气溶胶等人为强迫因子来驱动耦合模式,能够模拟出过去100年全球平均气温的增温趋势和年代际变化。耦合模式可以较好地模拟出20世纪全球气温变化趋势的空间分布。对区域气温变化模拟效果的分析表明,除北大西洋外,FGOALS_gl对其他地区具有较高的模拟技巧,表明外强迫是造成多数地区气温变化的主要原因。FGOALS_gl的主要缺陷在于模拟的变暖强度偏弱,大气模式自身的偏差以及耦合模式对温室气体响应的敏感度偏低是造成上述缺陷的主要原因。总体而言,FGOALS_gl对20世纪气温变化的模拟效果较为理想,特别是在全球、半球和大陆尺度上,该模式对过去100年气温变化的模拟较为合理。